The absentee/early vote thread

[PresidentTRUMP]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-coalition-hispanic-support-is-up-black-turnout-is-down/

In Florida, the good news for Clinton is that the two most Latino counties in the state, Miami-Dade and Osceola, are above the state average in their progress towards exceeding 2012 early/vote-by-mail turnout.

But the bad news for her is that turnout has lagged behind the state average in all five counties with the highest percentage of African-American voters

Lee County, a GOP bastion on the southwest Gulf Coast, is already at 125 percent of its 2012 total, and Sumter County, the ruby red home of The Villages, is at 104 percent, signaling increased GOP enthusiasm.

Huh...HRC already has Florida rapped up based on our early voting data, Media and this forum. Please don't post the 2nd half of what you did because it simply not true. HRC has FLorida locked up and early voting in Texas is showing us all also that it probably goes Hillary as well.

Need to get some early voting data from Alaska as well as that is probably looking like a flip to HRC as well.

[Speed of Sound]

Interesting finding in Ohio:

While early turnout is down in Franklin, Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Montgomery counties, turnout is up in the actual cities of Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Dayton. Cincinnati and Columbus have cleared their 2012 totals, even though there's one week less of early voting this year.

Hopefully a sign that the ground game in the cities is running as smoothly as ever. (this is hardly a guarantee of that, however).

[psychprofessor]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona.  

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but the actual polls show us Texas is closer right now than PA, WI and MN. That's just the facts.

[StatesPoll]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  27m27 minutes ago
Current FL active voter demos:

13.4% black
15.6% Hispanic
64% white

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  33m33 minutes ago
Of the 3.6m votes cast in FL (EIP & VBM) thru Sunday:
11.3% by blacks
13.5% by Hispanics
70.3% by whites

Fantastic.

in 2012.  Early Vote + Election Day
CNN FL Exit Poll: White 67% | Hispanic 17% | Black 13%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/

10/31/2016, FL(EIP & VBM) : White 70.3% (+3.3%) | Hispanic 13.5%(-3.5%) | Black 11.3%(-1.7%)

FL = Safe TRUMP

[BoAtlantis]

Interesting finding in Ohio:

While early turnout is down in Franklin, Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Montgomery counties, turnout is up in the actual cities of Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Dayton. Cincinnati and Columbus have cleared their 2012 totals, even though there's one week less of early voting this year.

I guess that educated Republicans in those counties are possibly lagging too.

[Speed of Sound]

Sorry to be a buzzkill, the the actual polls show us Texas is closer right now than PA, WI and MN. That's just the facts.

You know the old adage about wrestling with pigs. Save your breath, thinking, and keyboard.

[StatesPoll]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona.  

you should not expect a common sense from Red Avatars in here. They are so biased.
Once as I remember, few weeks ago. One of Red Avatar said
"Nate Silver'(Liberal's hero) is a 'GOP operative'."

[Dr. Arch]

Per http://www.electproject.org/early_2016, over 23 million people have voted with many states not having updated from the weekend yet. The number corresponds to 50% of the EV count in 2012 with several days to go before it stops.

[BoAtlantis]

Clinton outperforming Obama with Latinos in week-by-week comparison of Latino prez vote 2012 v 2016. Charts shows gap (%Dem - %Rep)


Interesting

[Speed of Sound]

Per electionsmith

[PresidentTRUMP]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona.  

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but the actual polls show us Texas is closer right now than PA, WI and MN. That's just the facts.

Yes, TEXAS the state that is literally the home of the 2nd amendment is going to go for Clinton over Trump, especially with a couple supreme court justices being picked from the next president.

Give me a break already, geez, texas is not going D, not this cycle or atleast another few thats for sure but keep tracking the state like it will actually flip, literally hilarious to read the nonsense on here.

2012:

Romney: 4,569,843
Obama: 3,308,124

Over 1.2 million more votes for MITT ROMNEY over a sitting president. But yes shes going to overcome that and win the state, comical.

[Dr. Arch]

Clinton outperforming Obama with Latinos in week-by-week comparison of Latino prez vote 2012 v 2016. Charts shows gap (%Dem - %Rep)


Interesting

Was it Skill and Chance who predicted this? Whatever small loss there might be with the AA vote will be compensated to greater lengths by Hispanic votes.

[JerryArkansas]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona. 

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but the actual polls show us Texas is closer right now than PA, WI and MN. That's just the facts.

Yes, TEXAS the state that is literally the home of the 2nd amendment is going to go for Clinton over Trump, especially with a couple supreme court justices being picked from the next president.

Give me a break already, geez, texas is not going D, not this cycle or atleast another few thats for sure but keep tracking the state like it will actually flip, literally hilarious to read the nonsense on here.

2012:

Romney: 4,569,843
Obama: 3,308,124

Over 1.2 million more votes for MITT ROMNEY over a sitting president. But yes shes going to overcome that and win the state, comical.

Just remember that about 1 million people who are Hispanic have registered to vote in Texas since 2012.  And the turnout is already about 40% higher than in 2012.  Texas will be closer.

[Brittain33]

Yes, TEXAS the state that is literally the home of the 2nd amendment

No, it isn't.

From Wikipedia:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[BuckeyeNut]

Interesting finding in Ohio:

While early turnout is down in Franklin, Hamilton, Cuyahoga, and Montgomery counties, turnout is up in the actual cities of Columbus, Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Dayton. Cincinnati and Columbus have cleared their 2012 totals, even though there's one week less of early voting this year.

Disaffected moderates?

I'd assume so. But also a bit of what Speed of Sound and BoAtlas said. Republicans in places like Dublin aren't going to vote for Trump as much as they voted for Romney.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romney said he was going to deporte hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

[BoAtlantis]

Clinton outperforming Obama with Latinos in week-by-week comparison of Latino prez vote 2012 v 2016. Charts shows gap (%Dem - %Rep)


Interesting

Was it Skill and Chance who predicted this? Whatever small loss there might be with the AA vote will be compensated to greater lengths by Hispanic votes.

I just went back and still couldn't find it. But it's not unrealistic to think AA would be somewhat down this year. Hillary definitely is not Obama.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Clinton outperforming Obama with Latinos in week-by-week comparison of Latino prez vote 2012 v 2016. Charts shows gap (%Dem - %Rep)


Interesting

Was it Skill and Chance who predicted this? Whatever small loss there might be with the AA vote will be compensated to greater lengths by Hispanic votes.

I just went back and still couldn't find it. But it's not unrealistic to think AA would be somewhat down this year. Hillary definitely is not Obama.

Hmmm you think? That's a shocker...

[Dr. Arch]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona. 

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but the actual polls show us Texas is closer right now than PA, WI and MN. That's just the facts.

Yes, TEXAS the state that is literally the home of the 2nd amendment is going to go for Clinton over Trump, especially with a couple supreme court justices being picked from the next president.

Give me a break already, geez, texas is not going D, not this cycle or atleast another few thats for sure but keep tracking the state like it will actually flip, literally hilarious to read the nonsense on here.

2012:

Romney: 4,569,843
Obama: 3,308,124

Over 1.2 million more votes for MITT ROMNEY over a sitting president. But yes shes going to overcome that and win the state, comical.

Just remember that about 1 million people who are Hispanic have registered to vote in Texas since 2012.  And the turnout is already about 40% higher than in 2012.  Texas will be closer.

I never stated it wouldn't be closer, but for people to suggest on here that it actually has a chance to flip D....is literally comical.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

hahaha only in this dreamland called the atlas forum. We will find out in basically a week.

[Dr. Arch]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

hahaha only in this dreamland called the atlas forum. We will find out in basically a week.

You're insane.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

hahaha only in this dreamland called the atlas forum. We will find out in basically a week.

You're insane.

Why because im pointing the OBVIOUS out that AA and hispanic will turn out not even close to Obama levels for Hillary? If that's insane, i guess like i said we will find out soon.

[Crumpets]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

hahaha only in this dreamland called the atlas forum. We will find out in basically a week.

You're insane.

Why because im pointing the OBVIOUS out that AA and hispanic will turn out not even close to Obama levels for Hillary? If that's insane, i guess like i said we will find out soon.

It is an easily observable fact that Hispanic turnout is up dramatically since 2012. It's harder to judge AA turnout, but any losses will likely be very small.

[Dr. Arch]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

hahaha only in this dreamland called the atlas forum. We will find out in basically a week.

You're insane.

Why because im pointing the OBVIOUS out that AA and hispanic will turn out not even close to Obama levels for Hillary? If that's insane, i guess like i said we will find out soon.

Insane because you somehow think that Romney and Trump have built up the same image with Hispanics in general and that Trump can perform like him because of that. That's what's insane.