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Author Topic: The absentee/early vote thread  (Read 170026 times)
Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1775 on: October 31, 2016, 06:57:13 PM »

If Dems are still easily outpacing Reps in CO against the very R-friendly 2014 #s, CO is in the bag.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1776 on: October 31, 2016, 07:02:47 PM »

It's getting really hard to see a path for Trump in CO/NV.  He's going to need to break through in PA or WI, as expected.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1777 on: October 31, 2016, 07:12:12 PM »

It's getting really hard to see a path for Trump in CO/NV.  He's going to need to break through in PA or WI, as expected.

But is it some evidence that EV is so predictive and better than polls?

For example Obama won Nevada by 12% and 6% in 2008 and 2012, respectively. Was his EV margin in 2008 much better than in 2012? Specially, EV at the middle/start of the campaign (there are still 7 days to go).
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1778 on: October 31, 2016, 07:14:08 PM »

This is a good question, but I think for a lot of states, huge swings in demos, ideologies, and actual voting laws makes that quite difficult. Only one I feel good talking about is NV. Ralston has been the beatman there for ages and feels very confident given that he's seeing the same numbers as in '12. CO, for the reasons I just mentioned above, also looks pretty darn good for Clinton. For the others, the water is really pretty murky, all told.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1779 on: October 31, 2016, 07:15:27 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2016, 07:17:07 PM by Speed of Sound »

R's did close the gap in CO a bit today, though. (but all ballots may not be in yet)

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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1780 on: October 31, 2016, 07:19:19 PM »

R's did close the gap in CO a bit today, though. (but all ballots may not be in yet)

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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1781 on: October 31, 2016, 07:20:13 PM »

We've crossed 24 million votes cast!
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1782 on: October 31, 2016, 07:27:37 PM »

reps are expected to close the gap...if they cant do it, they are dead.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #1783 on: October 31, 2016, 08:01:12 PM »

The main question that I have is how does it compare with EVs in NE-02 between '12 and '16 with only a week to go?

The tweet posted stated, "Dems had a <300 vote lead in this swing district" but doesn't appear to clarify if it was through all EV or compared to the same time point prior to ED.

Looks like it was comparing to same point in time:

Dave Sund ‏@davesund  34m34 minutes ago
vs. 8 days out in 2012:
D 20,687 +25.4%
R 20,388 -4.8%
I 7,198 +21.5%
Total 48,425 +12.4%

Thanks Ozymandias for the digging!

The logical follow-up would be how many Dem/Rep/Ind ballots received vs registered numbers?

Second question would be how does 2012 vs 2016 Party Reg look in NE-02?

Third question would be, how does Latino registration turnout look like in a CD that is 6% Latino, some  of whom work in the formerly union meat-packing plants in Metro Omaha?

This CD is a bit more obscure than most others, while at the same time potentially playing a role in national Pres elections, just like Maine, by dint of a potential one EV for either party candidate, regardless of statewide.

Let's see what the great city of Omaha does, home to the College World Series of Baseball, does in November in an official "All American City".

We're all curious on this one, but gets less attention than Maine-02 for an odd reason this year on Atlas.... Smiley



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Storebought
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« Reply #1784 on: October 31, 2016, 08:05:03 PM »

Naive question: What (D/R) breakdown can we expect for the ballots sent from Independents
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1785 on: October 31, 2016, 08:08:50 PM »

Naive question: What (D/R) breakdown can we expect for the ballots sent from Independents
Depends on the State and even then by the age breakdown as well.  Florida is perfect example of this.  Older votes who tend to be white in the NPA are more likely to vote Republican, while younger and POC people are much more likely to vote Democratic.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #1786 on: October 31, 2016, 08:54:52 PM »

good day for republicans in washoe....won the day by 300 votes. Smiley


https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793265069756813312?lang=de
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1787 on: October 31, 2016, 08:57:07 PM »

Thanks for posting that, I must have forgotten to in the midst of the last few hours. Their good days can keep looking that way, as far as I'm concerned. Very interested to see what Clark looks like; we've got to be knocking on that Clark 50k firewall after today.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1788 on: October 31, 2016, 08:57:32 PM »

Thanks for posting that, I must have forgotten to in the midst of the last few hours. Their good days can keep looking that way, as far as I'm concerned. Very interested to see what Clark looks like; we've got to be knocking on that Clark 50k firewall after today.

Any updates on the full returns from CO?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1789 on: October 31, 2016, 08:59:08 PM »

OK, I know I'll get blasted again for being a killjoy and everything, but... from the NC and FL results, doesn't it look like SttP was a massive flop? African-Americans were supposed to narrow their turnout deficit at least a bit, right? Instead the latest numbers I've seen show them still way down.

If this is wrong please explain me why, but for God's sake cut it with the unbacked "everything will be fine" mantra.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #1790 on: October 31, 2016, 09:04:19 PM »

Any updates on the full returns from CO?

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2h2 hours ago
CO #earlyvote evening update (courtesy #APElecRsch): Over 1 million voted, Dems +2.5 points over Reps
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #1791 on: October 31, 2016, 09:05:47 PM »

Thanks for posting that, I must have forgotten to in the midst of the last few hours. Their good days can keep looking that way, as far as I'm concerned. Very interested to see what Clark looks like; we've got to be knocking on that Clark 50k firewall after today.

Any updates on the full returns from CO?

Not yet, though Michael said he was going on the air for a bit this evening, so he may get final info late. Problem with CO is that he gets his state info from AP, which makes it way harder to find any useful numbers and crunch them yourself (if I understand correctly; I'm still really new to sniffing this stuff out).
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #1792 on: October 31, 2016, 09:18:26 PM »


Thanks for posting that, I must have forgotten to in the midst of the last few hours. Their good days can keep looking that way, as far as I'm concerned. Very interested to see what Clark looks like; we've got to be knocking on that Clark 50k firewall after today.

Hopefully Clark comes in big for the democrats later.
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dspNY
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« Reply #1793 on: October 31, 2016, 09:56:24 PM »

Wisconsin early vote stats, 10/31

Approximately 465K ballots have been cast in Wisconsin

Dane and Milwaukee Counties now make up 30.4% of the overall vote. They were 26% of the statewide vote in 2012 (Dane County has a crazy turnout right now)

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties now make up 16% of the overall vote. They were 12.3% of the overall statewide vote. It appears as if both major bases are overperforming, but Dane + Milwaukee is overperforming a little more than the WOW counties. If Dane + Milwaukee make up 30% or more of the statewide vote, Wisconsin will be an easy Hillary win
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1794 on: October 31, 2016, 09:57:53 PM »

Wisconsin early vote stats, 10/31

Approximately 465K ballots have been cast in Wisconsin

Dane and Milwaukee Counties now make up 30.4% of the overall vote. They were 26% of the statewide vote in 2012 (Dane County has a crazy turnout right now)

Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties now make up 16% of the overall vote. They were 12.3% of the overall statewide vote. It appears as if both major bases are overperforming, but Dane + Milwaukee is overperforming a little more than the WOW counties. If Dane + Milwaukee make up 30% or more of the statewide vote, Wisconsin will be an easy Hillary win

Safe D. Hillary signs everywhere and the anti-Trump sentiment is a strong driver alongside the fact that we want Feingold back!
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #1795 on: October 31, 2016, 09:58:14 PM »

In Miami-Dade county Early/Absentee voting has nearly equaled the total Early/Absentee vote in 2012 with a week yet to go..

https://twitter.com/MDCElections?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


Vote by Mail:

2012: 244K
2016: 222K

In Person Early

2012: 235K
2016: 239K



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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1796 on: October 31, 2016, 10:05:46 PM »

In Miami-Dade county Early/Absentee voting has nearly equaled the total Early/Absentee vote in 2012 with a week yet to go..

https://twitter.com/MDCElections?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


Vote by Mail:

2012: 244K
2016: 222K

In Person Early

2012: 235K
2016: 239K





Yes, Steve Schale just tweeted that Palm Beach, Broward and Dade surpassed the 1 million mark in VBM and EIP today. Big numbers. Also, Hispanics make up 13.5%, so far, of all early votes. That's another good number for Clinton.
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Xing
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« Reply #1797 on: October 31, 2016, 10:08:03 PM »

Is high turnout in the WOW counties really good news for Trump? My impression was that he's relatively weak for a Republican in those counties, and that he would be stronger in the more rural NW parts of the state and in Green Bay.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1798 on: October 31, 2016, 10:08:38 PM »

OK, I know I'll get blasted again for being a killjoy and everything, but... from the NC and FL results, doesn't it look like SttP was a massive flop? African-Americans were supposed to narrow their turnout deficit at least a bit, right? Instead the latest numbers I've seen show them still way down.

If this is wrong please explain me why, but for God's sake cut it with the unbacked "everything will be fine" mantra.

No one's taking this up? Uh-oh.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1799 on: October 31, 2016, 10:08:48 PM »

Is high turnout in the WOW counties really good news for Trump? My impression was that he's relatively weak for a Republican in those counties, and that he would be stronger in the more rural NW parts of the state and in Green Bay.
This could be the case.
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