The absentee/early vote thread

[Ebsy]

40% drop...don't be ridicolous.

10-15% sounds more likely.

Probably a fraction of that, maybe to the tune of 2 points nationally (66=>64). The national polls (which, you know, try to be accurate) are not showing the electorate as if it is going to be 10 points whiter than 2012. Also, every national poll has Clinton doing considerably better with whites than Obama did against Romney, so there doesn't seem to be a point to freaking out about this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This has been the best thread on this subforum all election. I'm having a ton of fun sifting through all the numbers with y'all without (too much of) the craziness from elsewhere. Let's go out with a bang, eh? Don't get to do this again for a while.

Yea, I agree wholeheartedly. I always look forward to posts here.

So do I, FWIW.

I'm not trying to scaremonger, I just want to be reassured.

[Smash255]

IIRC early voting was NOT available in any Florida counties on the Sunday before Election Day in 2012, this year it isn't available in the entire state, but is in pretty much all the heavily populated counties

[psychprofessor]

This has been the best thread on this subforum all election. I'm having a ton of fun sifting through all the numbers with y'all without (too much of) the craziness from elsewhere. Let's go out with a bang, eh? Don't get to do this again for a while.

I know, me too. This is the best thread on the forum page :-)

[ApatheticAustrian]

btw...regarding the graphics posted above...

30% of those EV hispanics are...first time voters.

make your own assumptions.

[swf541]

This has been the best thread on this subforum all election. I'm having a ton of fun sifting through all the numbers with y'all without (too much of) the craziness from elsewhere. Let's go out with a bang, eh? Don't get to do this again for a while.

I've been really enjoying the relative sanity of this thread (plus all the numbers)

[StatesPoll]

I can't see how anyone spins this, very ugly #'s in FL.

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000

VBM looks really good, but the early vote not so much. We'll see what happens.

wrong.
Florida's Early Voting

1) VBM - GOP is doing slightly better than 2012.
2) in person - Dem is doing a lots worse than 2012
VBM volumes are so massive in 2016.
so it should be compare with 2012 final results. not with 10/30/2012 results.

2012 FL's Early Voting Final results
1) VBM - R +3%   2) In Person - D +10%

10/31/2016, FL's Early Voting
1) VBM - R +3.26%  2) In Person - D + 3.12%

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/republican-lead-two-early-voting-states-will-be-tested-n671396

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats   

[StatesPoll]

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

NC's Early Voting 10/31/2016  vs  2012

Black voter
1) 2012: 29%   ->  2) 2016: 22.5%

decreased by -22.41%

Seriously Red Avatars think, Hillary gonna win with 22.41% less black voters than 2012?



NC/FL - Safe TRUMP

[Dr. Arch]

btw...regarding the graphics posted above...

30% of those EV hispanics are...first time voters.

make your own assumptions.

That's an important note.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

btw...regarding the graphics posted above...

30% of those EV hispanics are...first time voters.

make your own assumptions.

That's an important note.

It is, considering many of these voters are registered as unaffiliated

[Badger]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romney said he was going to deporte hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Can we clear up that almost no one here is saying Clinton will win Texas. 90+% of the most diehard red avatars are simply excited it'll actually be close this year, and maybe this'll be the start of TX being competitive in another 4-6 years (which fwiw I personally doubt, believing TX will revert largely to the norm without Trump and demographics will need over a decade to give Democrats a shot).

The point is your posts are currently far more annoying than illuminating. Perhaps you ought to at least forgo attacking strawmen?

[Badger]

So NC went R in 2012 and the AA vote is down right now by 18% yet you all are saying NC looks great for HRC right now? Obama lost in 2012 by 1-2% and the AA vote was 18% higher at this time last year no matter the reason for the lower turnout, yet NC again looks so good for her? Please explain.

College-educated white voters swinging wildly to Dems.

How could you possibly know the above to be true?

The polls, all of them.

Ohhh the "polls" are, you mean the polls for example showing CLinton a week ago up 15% in a 4 way national race which is basically mathematically impossible? Or do you mean ALL of the polls showing Clinton up 20-35% in the Michigan Primary all the way up until the night before the primary, when she lost by 1-2 % to Sanders in the State. OVER a 20% swing of "all of the polls were showing". Those polls are what you guys are going off of, okay than.

Thought we had actual data showing who voted for who with all of the celebrating, lol. Was wondering if they were giving that info out on a daily basis, i didn't think they were but wasn't sure.

If you are going to place your hopes on all the polls having been off for the MI Democratic primary over 6 months ago, but ignore that Trump lost hard among late deciding voters in damn near every state outside NH and IN (maybe NV?), you are going to have a tough night next Tuesday.

[Speed of Sound]

If you are going to place your hopes on all the polls having been off for the MI Democratic primary over 6 months ago, but ignore that Trump lost hard among late deciding voters in damn near every state outside NH and IN (maybe NV?), you are going to have a tough night next Tuesday.

And in fact, if Trump bit it hard with late deciders in a GOP primary, why would he do better with late-deciders among the general electorate?

[Badger]

Didn't Obama win Iowa by a fairly significant margin (like 5% or so)?  Why is there paranoia about matching his exact early vote in 2012?  

No idea. That Democrats are doing well so far in early voting is reason enough to at least not panic over Iowa. She doesn't need to win by 5.81% like Obama in 2012. If she wins it by 0.5%, it's still a win, and the only ones who might suffer in that scenario are a limited set of downballot IA Democrats that get starved of some marginal coattails.

Right!

I see a lot of comparisons in this thread to 2012.  But people seem to be forgetting that Obama won in 2012 by a fairly comfortable margin across the vast majority of battleground states.  So the fact that Hillary is even close to on par with those numbers indicates that she's better positioned than Trump in this election.

I think the concern comes from the polling so far as well, which has been far more favorable to Trump than they ever were for Romney in the state.

Can I mention that while the overall Democratic EV numerical lead in IA is lagging behind 2012, isn't theirpercentage lead nearly on par with 2012?

[henster]

A lot of people dismissed the massive drop in black turnout in the Dem primary but it looks like its not a fluke.

[Badger]

A lot of people dismissed the massive drop in black turnout in the Dem primary but it looks like its not a fluke.

True.

[Speed of Sound]

Didn't Obama win Iowa by a fairly significant margin (like 5% or so)?  Why is there paranoia about matching his exact early vote in 2012?  

No idea. That Democrats are doing well so far in early voting is reason enough to at least not panic over Iowa. She doesn't need to win by 5.81% like Obama in 2012. If she wins it by 0.5%, it's still a win, and the only ones who might suffer in that scenario are a limited set of downballot IA Democrats that get starved of some marginal coattails.

Right!

I see a lot of comparisons in this thread to 2012.  But people seem to be forgetting that Obama won in 2012 by a fairly comfortable margin across the vast majority of battleground states.  So the fact that Hillary is even close to on par with those numbers indicates that she's better positioned than Trump in this election.

I think the concern comes from the polling so far as well, which has been far more favorable to Trump than they ever were for Romney in the state.

Can I mention that while the overall Democratic EV numerical lead in IA is lagging behind 2012, isn't theirpercentage lead nearly on par with 2012?

I actually didn't know that. Thanks! But if total votes are up, and numerical lead is down, how is % lead on par? Maybe I'm misunderstanding. At any rate, if it ends up close in early vote, the point is taken that Obama's +5 cushion is comfy feeling.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

A lot of people dismissed the massive drop in black turnout in the Dem primary but it looks like its not a fluke.

We have the most racist presidential candidate since wallance of 68 and yet they don't come out??? Boggles the mind.

[IceSpear]

A lot of people dismissed the massive drop in black turnout in the Dem primary but it looks like its not a fluke.

Like how you dismissed Hillary's lead in the PA poll but celebrated McGinty's lead in the same poll? I guess we all have our blind spots...

[ApatheticAustrian]

We have the most racist presidential candidate since wallance of 68 and yet they don't come out??? Boggles the mind.

i would love to hear more about the details.

- first: the black output 2012 was unbelievable and above all expectations.....not realistic to be repeated each time, especially without obama,

- second: which black americans are not voting or less inclined to vote? if i need to guess, i would say millenials and bernie-fans.

- third: is there really a numerical drop-off of black voters or just a massive surge of everybody else?

[henster]

A lot of people dismissed the massive drop in black turnout in the Dem primary but it looks like its not a fluke.

Like how you dismissed Hillary's lead in the PA poll but celebrated McGinty's lead in the same poll? I guess we all have our blind spots...

Look I am fine with HC win as long as we get Senate and flip SCOTUS and I will continue to believe we could've done better with another nominee. We could've flipped the House with Biden.

[Badger]

Didn't Obama win Iowa by a fairly significant margin (like 5% or so)?  Why is there paranoia about matching his exact early vote in 2012?  

No idea. That Democrats are doing well so far in early voting is reason enough to at least not panic over Iowa. She doesn't need to win by 5.81% like Obama in 2012. If she wins it by 0.5%, it's still a win, and the only ones who might suffer in that scenario are a limited set of downballot IA Democrats that get starved of some marginal coattails.

Right!

I see a lot of comparisons in this thread to 2012.  But people seem to be forgetting that Obama won in 2012 by a fairly comfortable margin across the vast majority of battleground states.  So the fact that Hillary is even close to on par with those numbers indicates that she's better positioned than Trump in this election.

I think the concern comes from the polling so far as well, which has been far more favorable to Trump than they ever were for Romney in the state.

Can I mention that while the overall Democratic EV numerical lead in IA is lagging behind 2012, isn't theirpercentage lead nearly on par with 2012?

I actually didn't know that. Thanks! But if total votes are up, and numerical lead is down, how is % lead on par? Maybe I'm misunderstanding. At any rate, if it ends up close in early vote, the point is taken that Obama's +5 cushion is comfy feeling.

Look at the graphs. The raw EV numbers in IA are lagging 2012. Democrats are still behind %-wise from this point in 2012, but only nominally.

[Speed of Sound]

Didn't Obama win Iowa by a fairly significant margin (like 5% or so)?  Why is there paranoia about matching his exact early vote in 2012?  

No idea. That Democrats are doing well so far in early voting is reason enough to at least not panic over Iowa. She doesn't need to win by 5.81% like Obama in 2012. If she wins it by 0.5%, it's still a win, and the only ones who might suffer in that scenario are a limited set of downballot IA Democrats that get starved of some marginal coattails.

Right!

I see a lot of comparisons in this thread to 2012.  But people seem to be forgetting that Obama won in 2012 by a fairly comfortable margin across the vast majority of battleground states.  So the fact that Hillary is even close to on par with those numbers indicates that she's better positioned than Trump in this election.

I think the concern comes from the polling so far as well, which has been far more favorable to Trump than they ever were for Romney in the state.

Can I mention that while the overall Democratic EV numerical lead in IA is lagging behind 2012, isn't theirpercentage lead nearly on par with 2012?

I actually didn't know that. Thanks! But if total votes are up, and numerical lead is down, how is % lead on par? Maybe I'm misunderstanding. At any rate, if it ends up close in early vote, the point is taken that Obama's +5 cushion is comfy feeling.

Look at the graphs. The raw EV numbers in IA are lagging 2012. Democrats are still behind %-wise from this point in 2012, but only nominally.

Wow, so I just hard mis-read/mis-remembered the current turnout in IA. Makes sense now, thanks! Starting to feel a little more confident about IA, despite the muddy polling.

[Speed of Sound]

re lower black turnout... perhaps the republican strategy of voter suppression finally is working... didn't they close a bunch of early voting places in states like North Carolina, etc.?

They did, but AA numbers really are down across the board, so it's more than that. Mix of that stuff, Obama off ticket, general disillusionment perhaps, some unknown unknowns, etc.

[henster]

Really feel like she should've went for a black VP, Deval Patrick, Anthony Foxx, Cory Booker to name a few. Kaine is not doing anything for her and I do think she'd carry VA easily with or without him, definitely a missed opportunity.