The absentee/early vote thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

AA numbers are down across the board but as i have read in the twitter accounts of one of the math people (schale/ralston/macdonald/elecsmith/cohn/silver/enten) today, it is down especiaaaaaaally in the places with restricted EV laws.

[Virginiá]

re lower black turnout... perhaps the republican strategy of voter suppression finally is working... didn't they close a bunch of early voting places in states like North Carolina, etc.?

As per that insightus link, it's still down somewhat in counties whose early voting options were not savagely cut. Off the top of my head, counties unaffected by either saw roughly 10% drop (100%=> 90%~) and counties affected by EV cuts and/or hurricane saw 100% => 72%~.

Seems to be a correction from the high AA enthusiasm behind Obama. I'd imagine a fair amount of that is coming from a drop in Millennial turnout.

Either way, it's highly unlikely we end up seeing some massive drop in national AA turnout. 66% -> 64% seems likely, as said above. Even more drastic, maybe 66% -> 62%. I don't feel comfortably speculating lower than that. Attributing all post-2004 black turnout increases to Obama is too simplistic thinking, since it was trending upwards since the 90s, and it also ignores the fact that people who vote tend to have a better chance of voting again, increasing the more they vote.

The only way I can see such a massive implosion of AA turnout is if there is a general implosion of turnout among all demographics. Otherwise, it doesn't make sense for it to go below 60% (pre-Obama) while other demographics maintain turnout, or even increase.

[Sbane]

Yes, Hispanics will turn out in DROVES to vote for Hillary CLinton because they see her as so much more favorable that President Obama.

For the argument "well they will because they hate Trump and all the things he said". During a 2012 debate Mitt Romeny said he was going to deporate hispanics and make things to the point where they want to self-deporte. He got what, 27% of the Hispanic vote? Yes, them and AA are much more enthusiastic to vote for Hillary than Obama. Really? Okay we will see soon enough..

Oh, we will. Romney might have said deport, but he was a tempered candidate with experience and nuance. HE didn't start the campaign saying Mexicans are rapists and murderers nor did he base it on that.

The false equivalence of Romney = Trump to Hispanics is insulting. Romney is a saint compared to Trump.

hahaha only in this dreamland called the atlas forum. We will find out in basically a week.

Talk to actual Hispanics and get back to me.

[henster]

SEPTA now on strike could pose problems on ED in PA if people can't get to polls. Incredibly reckless on unions part a lot of them are so shortsighted when it comes to things like this.

https://twitter.com/pkcapitol/status/792730396882571265

[Speed of Sound]

SEPTA now on strike could pose problems on ED in PA if people can't get to polls. Incredibly reckless on unions part a lot of them are so shortsighted when it comes to things like this.

https://twitter.com/pkcapitol/status/792730396882571265

Would be shocked if an agreement of some sort isn't reached. If I trust in anything in this world, it's the deep connection between PA Dem pols and the big PA unions. They'll get done what's necessary.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this must be a threat....otherwise, i wish them good luck with their new republican overlords.

[henster]

this must be a threat....otherwise, i wish them good luck with their new republican overlords.

They are definitely playing hardball, and I hear this is mainly about bathroom breaks?

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in the Safe Democratic State of Oregon...

Almost 21% of registered voters have cast ballots as of 10/31/16.

Numbers from "Safe D" and "Safe R" counties are starting to stabilize.

Although ballot returns from Multnomah are now slightly below statewide averages, Washington and Clackamas have picked up significantly.

Additionally, Lane and Benton county. with large college communities are picking up steam and outpacing statewide averages.

In metro PDX. although Republicans appear to be holding steady, EV numbers are strongly outpacing their RV numbers, in a region where Indies vote late and tend to skew heavilt Dem:

Multnomah: EV (69-16-15) D-R-I   RV (59-14-27)
Clackamas: EV (51-34-14) D-R-I   RV (40-33-27)
Washington: EV (50-38-12) D-R-I   RV (42-28-30)


Additionally--- if we roll down to the Central Willamette Valley,

Democrats are actually leading in Polk, Yamhill, and Marion Counties, all with large Latino populations that typically Lean Republican, and EV numbers from Marion are so far (46-40-14) vs RV (35*-35-30).

Numbers from Benton & Lane are looking really good for the Dems, with the latter being a heavily blue-collar and working-class county, where one might expect to see Trump overperform traditional margins, despite the influence of the University of Oregon.

Southern Oregon numbers are looking decent, and Dems are actually ahead even in Coos County that was a +6 Romney county in '12, where Timber is still king, as well as its cousin in the Northern Oregon Coast (Tillamook) that went Republican in 2000 and 2004, before drifting back to Obama in both '08 and '12.

Meanwhile, as I have long predicted, Democrats actually lead in Jackson County, despite a 2k Rep voter edge, that narrowly went for Obama in '08 and is at the top of my Oregon County flip list.

Roll East of the Cascades, and Dems actually enjoy an early voting edge in Deschutes County, where the Republicans hold a 3% voter Registration edge, and there are a ton of college educated White voters that don't like what they see in the current Republican nominee. (2nd large Oregon County on my flip list).

Anyways, tons more to say, but been rambling on with stats long enough in a non-swing state....

[ApatheticAustrian]

republicans won nevada today.....time for more nail-biting

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793326772112596992?lang=de

funny thing:

dem turnout also has been extraordinarily weak on day 10 and 11 in 2012.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

republicans won nevada today.....time for more nail-biting

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793326772112596992?lang=de

Very concerning...Maybe the Comey crap is hurting Clinton afterall.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

republicans won nevada today.....time for more nail-biting

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793326772112596992?lang=de

Very concerning...Maybe the Comey crap is hurting Clinton afterall.

Also the gap in Colorado has decreased as Republicans are closing to around ~2.5%...Sad.

Trump is out performing Romney in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Also the gap in Colorado has decreased as Republicans are closing...Sad.

they must be ahead by 7% to have a chance.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

republicans won nevada today.....time for more nail-biting

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793326772112596992?lang=de

Very concerning...Maybe the Comey crap is hurting Clinton afterall.

Also the gap in Colorado has decreased as Republicans are closing to around ~2.5%...Sad.

Trump is out performing Romney in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada.

Oh lord people, calm the f down

[Confused Democrat]

republicans won nevada today.....time for more nail-biting

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793326772112596992?lang=de

Very concerning...Maybe the Comey crap is hurting Clinton afterall.

Also the gap in Colorado has decreased as Republicans are closing to around ~2.5%...Sad.

Trump is out performing Romney in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada.

Oh lord people, calm the f down

The bedwetting is only going to get worse.

It's in our nature...

[Ebsy]

I mean, you are all basically ignoring that this exact same day was the worst for the Democrats in 2012.

[StatesPoll]

republicans won nevada today.....time for more nail-biting

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793326772112596992?lang=de

Very concerning...Maybe the Comey crap is hurting Clinton afterall.

Also the gap in Colorado has decreased as Republicans are closing to around ~2.5%...Sad.

Trump is out performing Romney in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada.

Oh lord people, calm the f down

oh! f-word!  I can see now Red avatars are anxious 

[Badger]

The reason Democrats are getting so nervous is they inherently know Clinton is so unlikable, her support buttressed by loathing of Trump as the greater evil is only an inch deep. If it cracks, it sinks hard into the 40's.

I don't think that's what's happening here, but the fright is somewhat understandable (albeit still mostly over the top).

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

republicans won nevada today.....time for more nail-biting

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793326772112596992?lang=de

Very concerning...Maybe the Comey crap is hurting Clinton afterall.

Also the gap in Colorado has decreased as Republicans are closing to around ~2.5%...Sad.

Trump is out performing Romney in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada.

Oh lord people, calm the f down

The bedwetting is only going to get worse.

It's in our nature...

I expect the media  will keep pounding on Clinton for the next 7 days...Some bed wetting is common sense.

[StatesPoll]

Nevada’s Early Voting 10/31 (10:30PM)  it goes well ♬

TRUMPocrats! in Nevada

Remington Nevada Poll, 10/30, 787 LV
TRUMP got 21% supports of Democrats in NV. which is far much better than Romney did in 2012.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Remington_Research_Nevada_October_31_2016.pdf

Democrats: Hillary 74% | TRUMP 21%              Hillary +53%.
in 2012, Democrats: Obama 96% | Romney 4%        Obama +92%
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NV/president/

Nevada’s Early Voting 10/31 (10:30PM)

2016 1st week: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543
2016 2nd week: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4555

2012 Final results (in person+mail).  DEM 44% REP 37%  DEM +7%
10/31/2016.  DEM 43.2% REP 36.6%.  DEM +6.6%

1. In person + Mail, Total
1) Total 504694 Votes
2) DEM 218,126 Votes(43.2%)
3) REP 184,651 Votes (36.6%)


2. Early voting in person
1) Total: 1st week  337,070 +  2nd week(10/29~10/31) 116.916 = 453.986
2) DEM: 150,484 (1st week) + 48143(2nd week, 10/29-10/31) = 198.627 (43.75%)
3) REP: 120,313 (1st week) + 42961(2nd week, 10/29-10/31) =  163.274 (35.96%)


3. Absent/Mailing
1) Total: 1st week  44,492 +  2nd week(10/29~10/31) 6,216 = 50.708
2) DEM: 16,858 (1st week) + 2641(2nd week, 10/29-10/31) = 19,499 (38.45%)
3) REP: 19,010 (1st week) + 2367(2nd week, 10/29-10/31) =  21.377(42.15%)

[Tender Branson]

republicans won nevada today.....time for more nail-biting

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793326772112596992?lang=de

Very concerning...Maybe the Comey crap is hurting Clinton afterall.

Also the gap in Colorado has decreased as Republicans are closing to around ~2.5%...Sad.

Trump is out performing Romney in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada.

Oh lord people, calm the f down

The bedwetting is only going to get worse.

It's in our nature...

I expect the media  will keep pounding on Clinton for the next 7 days...Some bed wetting is common sense.

But yet you decided to bash me over the past couple weeks, when I told you exactly this ... that the race will narrow down.

[Ebsy]

Like I said in the Comeygate monstrosity thread, you people need to get a grip. Every little fluctuation in the early vote is not necessarily significant or harks the end of democracy.

[StatesPoll]

Like I said in the Comeygate monstrosity thread, you people need to get a grip. Every little fluctuation in the early vote is not necessarily significant or harks the end of democracy.

I can't wait to see your reaction after TRUMP wins the Election 2016

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

republicans won nevada today.....time for more nail-biting

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793326772112596992?lang=de

Very concerning...Maybe the Comey crap is hurting Clinton afterall.

Also the gap in Colorado has decreased as Republicans are closing to around ~2.5%...Sad.

Trump is out performing Romney in Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada.

Oh lord people, calm the f down

The bedwetting is only going to get worse.

It's in our nature...

I expect the media  will keep pounding on Clinton for the next 7 days...Some bed wetting is common sense.

No, bed-wetting is NEVER common sense, I just keep expecting more.

[ApatheticAustrian]

The reason Democrats are getting so nervous is they inherently know Clinton is so unlikable, her support buttressed by loathing of Trump as the greater evil is only an inch deep. If it cracks, it sinks hard into the 40's.

I don't think that's what's happening here, but the fright is somewhat understandable (albeit still mostly over the top).

could be wrong but there have been tons of fear and doubt and panic in 2012 and obama is anything but not likable.

[Ebsy]

The reason Democrats are getting so nervous is they inherently know Clinton is so unlikable, her support buttressed by loathing of Trump as the greater evil is only an inch deep. If it cracks, it sinks hard into the 40's.

I don't think that's what's happening here, but the fright is somewhat understandable (albeit still mostly over the top).

could be wrong but there have been tons of fear and doubt and panic in 2012 and obama is anything but not likable.

Badger's argument doesn't make any sense even on its own merits. Polling has shown that a much larger share of Clinton's supporters are voting for her to support her than say the same about Trump.