The absentee/early vote thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

but the end result is the same. if white voters are an increased share of the electorate, Trump benefits bigly.

i don't really believe it is possible to make such generalized claims about racial identity but we are going to see it soon.

cohn and macdonald are btw doubting the claim about 28%....

cohn said, their own models have trump getting support from early voting republicans 80 - 10.

[psychprofessor]

as i said.

black is up...all others are even more up.

but the end result is the same. if white voters are an increased share of the electorate, Trump benefits bigly.

but they won't be...white share of the florida electorate modeled to be 2-3% less than 2012.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

How many have already voted in Florida? In mln or  in % of total of 2012.

[ApatheticAustrian]

but they won't be...white share of the florida electorate modeled to be 2-3% less than 2012.

maybe in the end but it won't be transparent...many UNAFF are non-white but you wouldn't know.

@trumpista...one or 2 days ago, about 1/3 of the measured vote.

[psychprofessor]

as i said.

black is up...all others are even more up.

but the end result is the same. if white voters are an increased share of the electorate, Trump benefits bigly.

but they won't be...white share of the florida electorate modeled to be 2-3% less than 2012.

Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@MichaelWLemme @stevandrews @EsotericCD @FingerootB @KFILE won't be more than 3. Was 67. I think 65 is probably best case & very good

this is in relation to what share the white electorate in florida will be

[HillOfANight]

Excited White Trump supporters voted very early, now tapped out?

[NOVA Green]

Wisconsin early vote so far: 51% Dem, 37% Rep. In 2012 it was: 46% Dem, 39% Rep
2012: 46% Dem, 39% Rep, 15% Other (231,000)
2016: 51% Dem, 37% Rep, 12% Other (446,000)

relax bruh - it's all Trump Dems folks!

All those Reagan Democrats in Madison!

IceSpear you literally made me spit out my beer on that....

If you don't have me on ignore from the primaries wanted to say thank you for making me laugh the hardest today, since Arch jumped in to comment on "Angry Puerto Ricans" in Florida, to correct the record on some people wondering about EVs in Florida.

Yeah.... there aren't a ton of Reagan Democrats left in Wisconsin period, let alone in Madison.

OT:

Just last Friday, I walked into a bar in a small Coastal Oregon town (Pop 750) and spent a little time on the Video Poker machines before chatting with a couple men with a few decades on me (55-65).

The old-time logger and Elk hunter and myself chatted for an hour while my wife was losing a few bucks on the slots, and although we didn't talk about the current Presidential Election, in the course of a conversation about the Timber Industry in a remote part of NorthCoast Oregon, he made an adamant point about how "Ronald Reagan was the worst President ever" that "destroyed the Unions" and, although some Republicans on this Forum that can't even grow facial hair, like to talk about this mysterious species, reality is that in most parts of the country, these are identified as Republicans, and it doesn't appear that old time Democrats that rejected Reagan, but still own firearms, opposed to increased environmental regulations that impact local jobs, are going down the route of the Trump Train.

True story, no hype, no BS....   If Tillamook County Oregon is going heavy D, even among the mythical species that Republicans and the MSM like to refer to as "Reagan Democrats, I gotta wonder what's going on in places like upstate Wisconsin and UP Michigan....

 

[Virginiá]

@NOVA Green: With those numbers in Oregon, do you think Democrats are poised to make anymore gains in the legislature? What about the SoS race - I heard that was close as well, no?

[IceSpear]

Wisconsin early vote so far: 51% Dem, 37% Rep. In 2012 it was: 46% Dem, 39% Rep
2012: 46% Dem, 39% Rep, 15% Other (231,000)
2016: 51% Dem, 37% Rep, 12% Other (446,000)

relax bruh - it's all Trump Dems folks!

All those Reagan Democrats in Madison!

IceSpear you literally made me spit out my beer on that....

If you don't have me on ignore from the primaries wanted to say thank you for making me laugh the hardest today, since Arch jumped in to comment on "Angry Puerto Ricans" in Florida, to correct the record on some people wondering about EVs in Florida.

Yeah.... there aren't a ton of Reagan Democrats left in Wisconsin period, let alone in Madison.

OT:

Just last Friday, I walked into a bar in a small Coastal Oregon town (Pop 750) and spent a little time on the Video Poker machines before chatting with a couple men with a few decades on me (55-65).

The old-time logger and Elk hunter and myself chatted for an hour while my wife was losing a few bucks on the slots, and although we didn't talk about the current Presidential Election, in the course of a conversation about the Timber Industry in a remote part of NorthCoast Oregon, he made an adamant point about how "Ronald Reagan was the worst President ever" that "destroyed the Unions" and, although some Republicans on this Forum that can't even grow facial hair, like to talk about this mysterious species, reality is that in most parts of the country, these are identified as Republicans, and it doesn't appear that old time Democrats that rejected Reagan, but still own firearms, opposed to increased environmental regulations that impact local jobs, are going down the route of the Trump Train.

True story, no hype, no BS....   If Tillamook County Oregon is going heavy D, even among the mythical species that Republicans and the MSM like to refer to as "Reagan Democrats, I gotta wonder what's going on in places like upstate Wisconsin and UP Michigan....

Thanks! I've never ignored anyone, but even if I did, I don't see why I'd ignore you of all people. You tend to give pretty good analysis. If I was going to ignore anybody it would be the trolls like henster and bronz, spammers like StatesPoll, the jferns of the world, etc.

[psychprofessor]

just wanted to mention that my parents recently moved to florida and early voted for hillary. they went to her rally tonight in broward county and my dad was interviewed on tv about voting for hillary..very proud son here!

[Ozymandias]

The Political Hat: "Nevada Early Vote Update 2016 (Day 10 of 14)"

http://politicalhat.com/2016/11/01/nevada-early-vote-update-2016-day-10-of-14/

"In Summary

     With over two-thirds of the early voting over, it continues to look like 2016 will be a worse year than 2012. The Republicans are set to lose two of Nevada’s four Congressional districts, the Assembly, the state Senate for at least four years, and potentially give Cortez Masto a life-time appointment to the U.S. Senate while concomitantly enshrining her as the new Democratic king-maker in Nevada.

     To whit: Republicans should be hitting the panic button like a crack monkey putting down the crack pipe."

[Speed of Sound]

When a heavy partisan writes an article with such pessimistic outlook, it continues to solidify the fact that NV is gone.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, barring something extremely unexpected, NV is gone. Only question now is if Hillary wins by a big enough margin to drag CCM over the finish line.

Congrats to xingkerui and all the rest of us who never bought the junky Nevada polls.

Although I'm sure people will continue to have panic attacks whenever Ralston tweets about how Republicans won Washoe County by 2.6 votes or something, despite the fact that they need to crush it there to even have a chance at winning statewide...

[Xing]

Congrats to xingkerui and all the rest of us who never bought the junky Nevada polls.

Thanks

Anyway, Heck should overperform Trump, but I think too many people assume that this year's Senate race is a 2012 redux. The thing is, CCM<3 is a decent candidate, and certainly no Berkley, and the only reason Heller won is because many Democrats voted NOTA (he only got 46.5% of the vote).

[Badger]

Congrats to xingkerui and all the rest of us who never bought the junky Nevada polls.

Thanks

Anyway, Heck should overperform Trump, but I think too many people assume that this year's Senate race is a 2012 redux. The thing is, CCM<3 is a decent candidate, and certainly no Berkley, and the only reason Heller won is because many Democrats voted NOTA (he only got 46.5% of the vote).

Yeah. Heck is f$%ked.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793682522991308800

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NV is Safe D

[ApatheticAustrian]

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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports

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better than yesterday, no republican break even.

[Speed of Sound]

Nice. Right on target.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/793682522991308800

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NV is Safe D

Great news!

[ApatheticAustrian]

funny thing is, that a LITTLE BIT closer race than 2012 in NV could be more dangerous for the GOP.....otherwise there wouldn't be death flags everywhere.

need to check this out sometimes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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https://twitter.com/RalstonReports

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better than yesterday, no republican break even.

Is he saying that Dems won by 3,000 in 2012, but only by 2,200 this time? That's a pretty significant drop.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Is he saying that Dems won by 3,000 in 2012, but only by 2,200 this time? That's a pretty significant drop.

he is but at that time washoe was much closer.

and i don't think day to day comparisons over 4 years make much sense, if your reach the same number. (same advantage over republicans, even with higher number of people overall)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is he saying that Dems won by 3,000 in 2012, but only by 2,200 this time? That's a pretty significant drop.

he is but at that time washoe was much closer.

and i don't think day to day comparisons over 4 years make much sense, if your reach the same number. (same advantage over republicans, even with higher number of people overall)

Sorry to be a broken record, but same raw advantage with a higher total vote means that the % margin is down. If Dems pull even with 2012 %-wise, I'd feel a lot better about the Senate.

[ApatheticAustrian]

I'd feel a lot better about the Senate.

if the people of NV like CCM she is going to win anyway.... if not, she is going to lose even if HRC wins.

[Dr. Arch]

Is he saying that Dems won by 3,000 in 2012, but only by 2,200 this time? That's a pretty significant drop.

he is but at that time washoe was much closer.

and i don't think day to day comparisons over 4 years make much sense, if your reach the same number. (same advantage over republicans, even with higher number of people overall)

Sorry to be a broken record, but same raw advantage with a higher total vote means that the % margin is down. If Dems pull even with 2012 %-wise, I'd feel a lot better about the Senate.

What matters is that the raw vote advantage is now 50,000.