The absentee/early vote thread

[The Other Castro]

Early surge in absentee requests from Youngstown, Ohio.

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http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/sep/15/requests-to-vote-by-mail-surge-above--le/?mobile

[The Other Castro]

ME-2 is looking pretty good again:

[The Other Castro]

As of October 1st, this is the partisan makeup of NH:

GOP: 32.2%
Dem: 29.5%
Und: 38.3%

GOP has 24,344 registration advantage.

On October 15th, 2012, the GOP advantage was 33,799.

http://sos.nh.gov/NamesHistory.aspx

[The Other Castro]

Austria has multiple parties and there was zero historical precedent for predicting a Green - Far Right runoff.

In the U.S., we have at least two recent elections with early voting with the same parties that can provide a basis for comparison.

But muh dogsweat ™

[The Other Castro]

Too early to bust this out?

[The Other Castro]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Gotta be pretty darn happy w these numbers if you're HRC
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The first day of in-person early voting in North Carolina:
Dem 52.7, Rep 24.3
White 67, Black 27.8
Female 55.1, Male 43.5

[The Other Castro]

Helpful charts from Pew:



                               

[The Other Castro]

Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz  31m31 minutes ago
Early vote returns in FLORIDA so far

• Democrats:  305,700 in 2016 (111,471 in 2008)
• Republicans: 314,301 in 2016 (176,855 in 2008)

[The Other Castro]

Flawless beautiful titanium (Atlas) red NevADa!

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston:

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In comparison to 2012's first day of NV early vote:

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https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/democrats-massacre-republicans-first-day-early-voting-urban-areas

[The Other Castro]

Daily Kos Elections
‏@DKElections
NC early vote, per @PPPPolls:

2012: 57-42 Obama (Oct. 25: 30% had voted early)

2016: 63-37 Clinton (Oct 22: 19% have voted early)

[The Other Castro]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

[The Other Castro]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  32s33 seconds ago
And in Arizona, notes the Clinton camp, Democrats lead Republicans by ~1,000 ballots cast, compared to ~20,000 DEFICIT at this point in '12.

[The Other Castro]

Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics  3m3 minutes ago
Per NBC's data, more than 6.5M Americans have already voted in '16 election. Here's partisan breakdown by battleground state

[The Other Castro]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

It doesn't surprise me to this end. Trump is just that toxic.

Gabriel Debenedetti added that Joe Arpaio's reelection race could also be contributing to the excitement (Maricopa County).

[The Other Castro]

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk
At least 6,950,184 votes have been cast in the presidential election so far, per new @AP data out just now.


That looks like more than 1.4 million votes today alone, unless AP was just behind on a batch.

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  18m18 minutes ago
Another big day of voting in Clark: 23,000 had turned out by 3 PM. 30,000 turned out on Day 3 in 2012. Will be close to that, I'd think.

[The Other Castro]

Tender you don't need to be a perpetual raincloud on this.

[The Other Castro]

NC early voting (mail + in-person) stats as of 10/25:



Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  4m4 minutes ago
NC Dem returns off 2012 levels by 7.6% (Due in part to Rep election officials shuttering polling places in Dem counties), Reps down 7.9%

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  30s30 seconds ago
Polling places expand later this week. Will turning spigot on full produce flood or will dribble remain? Given numbers elsewhere, bet former

[The Other Castro]

Lol FOX is just blatantly misleading people in this article on early voting...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/10/25/early-voting-suggests-tight-race-in-key-states-despite-clinton-camp-boast.html

[The Other Castro]

Obama's top Florida guy Steve Schale:

-Not all counties have reported yet (17 yet to report, most are small), but when all said and done, over 300,000 will have voted on day one.  Just to put into scale, 1.2 million voted by mail in the first two weeks.

-Democrats reduced the Republican advantage of 1.7% going into yesterday to around 0.5% after day one (still counties reporting, so this number will move around).

-Democrats won every county on I-4 in Florida on day one of early voting.

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http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/25/early-voting-in-florida-day-one.html

[The Other Castro]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  4m4 minutes ago
Democrats added 5,000 votes to their lead in Clark County on Monday. It's now more than 23,500 raw votes. Statewide: 22K. On par with 2012.

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald
‏@ElectProject
Texas early voting (mail and in-person): 575,941 yesterday, up 52% from 2012 at same day
http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/index.shtml

[The Other Castro]

Per Steve Schale,

"More Democrats have voted in Broward County today (+12,000) than Republicans have voted in Indian River over two weeks (7,500)."

"Already 20,000 more people in Broward County, FL have in person early voted today.  Roughly 3:1 Democratic so far."

So Florida based on this is Clintons and the election is over if the numbers are accurate.

Correctamundo.

[The Other Castro]

So the conventional wisdom seemed to be that early vote was good for Trump in IA and OH, and great for Clinton everywhere else. Now it seems the reasoning on Ohio is conflicted depending on who you talk to, and the Iowa advantage is slipping away.