The absentee/early vote thread

[Ebsy]

I wouldn't read too much into absentee ballot request data until closer to election day.

[Ebsy]

The numbers so far are definitely not great for the GOP if they wanted to replicate their 2012 victory in the state. Obviously things can and will change, but I think we might be seeing the first signs of Clinton's ground game massively outclassing Trump's. Considering the age skew of the absentee ballots, the GOP absolutely should be leading.

[Ebsy]

FL has released their absentee requests by county and party.
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Hard to conclude much when Miami Dade isn't included in the numbers yet.

[Ebsy]

FL has released their absentee requests by county and party.
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Hard to conclude much when Miami Dade isn't included in the numbers yet.

Yeah but we have big numbers in Pinellas and Orange and Hillsborough are both close

We also regrettably don't (as far as I know) have data from 2012 to compare to.

[Ebsy]

Democrats maintaining an edge in requested absentee ballots in North Carolina. Anyone have any idea when the GOP took the lead last cycle?

[Ebsy]

Don't absentee votes generally favor Democrats? We can't tell anything from this yet.

Absentee ballots usually favor the GOP while in person early voting favors Democrats.

[Ebsy]

FL already has over 2 million ballots requested, which split 43% R and 37% D (see post from TN volunteer slightly above).

In Mid-October 2014, there were also more than 2 million ballots requested in FL, and the split was 42% R, 39% D ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-picking-up-s_b_5973716.html

So a month ahead of schedule to hit same # of requested absentees? Interesting.

Midterm vs Presidential year is not a great comparison.  Is there any data from 2012?

Not on the SoS website.

[Ebsy]

Sean Spicer just said on CNN that democrats "are running 50 000 early votes under threshold for what they need to have at this moment to win" and how it shows Hilary is bad candidate.

How exactly did he come up with this figure?

[Ebsy]

Looks like Trump's ground game disaster is unfolding in North Carolina. The GOP needs to run of the margin in the absentee vote to win the state.

[Ebsy]

Could be that campus organizations (College Democrats) in North Carolina are driving absentee turnout.

[Ebsy]

Intellectually bankrupt Statespoll comparing "ballots cast" data with ballot request data, proving once and for all that he lacks even basic reading comprehension.

[Ebsy]

I see my prediction of Democrats taking the edge in active voter registration this month in Colorado has come true. Historic!

[Ebsy]

OTOH the Democrats registration edge continues to decline in Nevada.
What's up there?

It's not as far as I can tell. Democrats increased their edge in Active voters from August to September.

[Ebsy]

Looks like the GOP advantage is falling. We'll see if the Democratic strategy this cycle pays off in the late term.

[Ebsy]

After Palm Beach County finally updated its ballot requests, Democrats have narrowed the Republican advantage in statewide VBM ballot requests to approximately 87,600

GOP: 1,130,494 (41.9%)
Dem: 1,042,897 (38.6%)
Ind/NPA: 459,465 (17.0%)
Other: 65,689 (2.4%)

RIP Statespoll's methodically plotted calculations.

[Ebsy]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
My roundup of early voting for the week ending 10/8:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-a-month-to-g_b_12424562.html

He bizarrely thinks Des Moines is in Dallas County (it's actually in Polk).

[Ebsy]

Early vote numbers are not terribly significant until about a week or two before election day.

[Ebsy]

Unprecedented.

[Ebsy]

So as of 5:00 the total in NC on the first day of Early Voting is 137,000 votes down from 167,000 on the first day in 2012. But we are still 12 minutes away from poll closings.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NCSBE/status/789225125732376576

Keep in mind that number might spike in the last hour as people try to vote after work. We'll see what the final total is

Weird that they haven't posted the final numbers. Guess they might be waiting on those 7 outstanding counties.

[Ebsy]

Ralston:

Day 1 of early voting in Clark County breaks the 2012 record. As of 6 PM, 37,138 people have voted. The record was 33,000

So much for waning enthusiasm in Nevada!

[Ebsy]

If day one numbers hold through the week, Democratic vote share would be up 5 points from 2012 in Clark County, just under 50% to just under 55%.

[Ebsy]

I don't think it is terribly useful to compare race numbers from now back to 2012 because the share of "unknown" has grown so much, especially in heavily black counties.

[Ebsy]

Nevada Elections ‏@NVElect  51m51 minutes ago
There was an error in reporting Washoe mail/absentee ballot returns. The corrected info can be found here: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4537 ….

Reps take a small lead in absentees but Dems dominating in In Person WEarly Voting.

I think the final breakdown for Nevada voting in 2012 was about 61% in person early voting, 8.5%  mail-in/absentee and 30.5% election day. Democrats won the early vote in a romp and eleciton day narrowly while Republicans won absentee ballots narrowly.

[Ebsy]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

North Carolina

With 385,000 ballots now cast, turnout remains below 2012’s pace, but not by much (95% of 2012’s rate for the corresponding period). That’s a very substantial change from the 81% we reported on October 20th, just before Early Voting began.

Turnout is down not surprisingly in 28 counties that have restricted early voting, but in normal counties, it's up across all parties, especially unaffiliateds.



A warning sign for Clinton, black turnout is 75% of what it was in 2012, compared to 102% among whites. It does mention that this Sunday's souls to the polls could alleviate that.

Not seeing why Clinton should be concerned if Democrats are doing much better than 2012 (compared to GOP) with a whiter electorate. I suppose we will see how souls to the polls impacts African American turnout.

[Ebsy]

@RalstonReports
30,220 people had voted in Clark by 6 PM today. Was 26,000 on second day in 2012.