The absentee/early vote thread

[Hydera]

This is a map of early ballot requests by county in Florida according to MyFlorida.com Some really interesting things to see, but I'm not sure what exactly is expected about this and unexpected. Might the strong Democratic showing in the North be enough to save Gwen Graham?

Wouldn't want to be a party crasher but





According to MCI maps a large amount of white voters in the Panhandle are registered dems but have been voting strongly Republican since the 1980s(although 1996 was a exception).  

Still given that democratic ballots is tied with the republican early advantage in 2012. Its still a gain for dems.




Also NPA voters in Panhandle the extremly near empty rural counties in South Florida splits for GOP and NPA voters in coastal suburbs/cities lean Democratic.

[Hydera]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/ncs-2016-early-voting-turnout-through-17-october/#more-426
I found a new site and I'll follow @InsightUSOrg on twitter. They've been presenting the NC data in interesting ways. Here is returns by party/age.

Wow a lot of Republicans who voted early in 2012 couldn't bring themselves to vote for Trump this time.

[Hydera]

[Hydera]

Wtf happened in Florida in 2008?

Prior to the debates and the bulk of the GFC starting around the Lehman collapse on September 15. McCain held a 5% margin according to RCP.




So some disgruntled Hillary primary votes along with the upset of many voters on jokes about McCain's age and Obama ignoring the state because of McCain's poll lead at the time i think a lot of absentee ballots were sent that came from republicans.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html

It took the Financial crisis starting and the debates to make a huge shift in opinion by November.


But look on the brightside. the 2008/2012 early vote had the GOP leading the absentee votes by 25% and now its in the 1-3%.

[Hydera]

Back to the Virginia early votes.

http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

63.3% Increase in Nova. Followed by a 10% increase in SouthWest Virginia.

However out of the 88,618 votes cast. 16,935 were new votes from NoVA. But only 367 new votes from SouthWest Virginia.

[Hydera]

lol @ the people who ever though Nevada was anything but Safe D.

It should be safe D but the forum is a bit reserved because the polls doesnt show a good enough lead which is because spanish speaking households have bad response rates to polls.

[Hydera]

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016


North Carolina looks very promising. 44.2% Dem vs 30.1% GOP.

For West Virginia even though democrats lead, lots of democrats have not been voted for a Democrat in the presidential ballot for years.

[Hydera]

wow! look at all those Trump Dems! #MAGA

BREAKING: LATINOS splitting for TRUMP by 6% in Nevada early votes (Romney was DOWN 12% in 2012) #MAGA!! #KillaryforPRISON


I sh**t you not if you search 'Nevada early voting' in twitter you'll find the exact tweet. and it like all other pro-trump tweets it had no source/link.

So are the partisan numbers in Florida good or bad for the Dems? The last few posts have confused me.

Good for dems because they were down by 3% in the early vote in 2012 and now its tied.




Back to the general electionWhat you should assume is that 4-8% of the dems in the early vote are registered dems who have voted GOP for decades and didnt bother to change registration who live mostly in the panhandle.



Then you assume that most of the NPA's will split for the democrats because a large segment of them are hispanics.

[Hydera]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/791341639201648645?lang=de

"Interesting tidbit:  The NPA's in FL who have voted are disproportionally unlikely voters (about 40%) & a bitmore Hispanic than electorate."

Bad news for those who think NPA's will lean trump because 'obviously they hate hillary!!!'

[Hydera]

Surge in early voting after polling locations increased in NC.

The preferences of unaffiliated voters is like a mystery box now.

[Hydera]

Except for those who arent voting and claim they arent going to vote "because i dont have time" after being told about absentee mail ballots when in reality they dont want to admit that their not going to vote.

I dont know why a large percentage of voters in states with early voting, place a huge importance on voting exactly on election day when they could of done it much earlier.  I remember hearing every election cycle about polling booths packed before the time is up for voting and many people on line leaving after being frustrated with being in line for so long. The Democrats did good communication this time to get people to vote early but the next four years and not even on election year should be focused on educating and convincing their voters to vote early if their state has the option.

[Hydera]

Guilford is taking these new EV hours to heart. Over 20k voters today, only 2k below yesterday w/ hours to go
https://twitter.com/wccubbison/status/792075656582537217?lang=de

is this a democratic county?

http://www.myguilford.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/os-stats-102816-234pm.pdf

African americans makeup 29% of the county but made up 35% of 42,000 early votes.