The absentee/early vote thread

[HillOfANight]

I think, I founded the source, that updates (daily?)
37810 have voted so far:

Is that voted though, or requests?
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/774603224967892992
Per Michael McDonald

As of yesterday in NC:
27 people have voted
37,758 outstanding ballot reqs

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/774245192467480577
Is there a way to track daily stats by demographics?

9/9/16, Michael said

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which seems like a huge Dem lead (ignoring the close voter registration), so it's either out of context, or not really that great historically?

[HillOfANight]

Oops, never bothered to open the file. I thought I read on his feed 80% of early ballots were Black, I was dyslexic.

By gender, I see 22.8K female ballots (57%) and 16.6k male ballots (41%). Hope I didn't butcher that number.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/wegetmessages/status/776654203557064704
Still very early, not many ballots returned, and not significant compared to actual in person early vote.

Someone found it similar to 2012.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/778189996461330432

18% are overseas ballots and are 50-23% Dem/Rep;

82% are "domestic" ballots and are 39-37% Dem.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/778326496599429120

Follow IAStartingLine for good analysis in Iowa. Dems are 45% compared to 2012, GOP at 102%. BUT, Dems have delayed sending ballots since their studies show sending it too early confuses people... It could also show lack of enthusiasm.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/NCCivitas/status/779037596265619456
http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/

Civitas has an easy vote/registration tracker here.

[HillOfANight]

Absentee ballots started going out in Georgia yesterday, according to the data available from SoS. It's a shame that they don't have an option for viewing all of the state's data at once: it's broken down into individual files for each county regardless of how you sort it. No data on race or age in there, either. Here are the mailed absentee totals for the 25 counties with the most requests (60% of state's population):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/779045369632034817

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/779667613559336961

NC ABS VOTE TRENDS (9/17 to 9/24):
From 43-32-25 to 41-35-25 Dem, and

from 80-12-8 to 82-12-6 white/black.

IOW, more Trump friendly.

[HillOfANight]

Are these North Carolina Dixiecrats... however many there are still left... really more likely to come out early for Trump against Clinton than they were for Romney against Obama? It's possible, but it's hard for me to imagine considering how Alabama voted against Obama. Remember, we are talking about an increase against a 2012 baseline, not a 1980 or 1992 baseline.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/05/donald-trump-2016-polling-turnout-early-voting-data-213897?o=1
http://lpstrategies.com/white-papers/its-time-for-democrats-to-ctfd/920,2016

In most states, Trump did not really bring new voters, but in North Carolina, 8% of GOP primary voters were new voters according to Lincoln Park Strategies.

[HillOfANight]

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/09/28/gop-jumps-140000-lead-fl-absentee-requests/

Thanks to the big gaps in Orange and Osceola, Democrats have an I-4 advantage of 7,368 ballots, or about a 40.2/39.3 percentage advantage. Worth noting: George W. Bush handily won Osceola in 2004 52.5/47, Hillsborough by 53/46.2, and came within 800 votes of winning Orange while taking the state 52/47. These seven counties account for over a third of all absentee ballot requests in the state of Florida.

If the I-4 Corridor still holds the key to the Sunshine State — and it’s almost certain to be won or lost in these seven counties — then Republicans might be at a serious disadvantage already, and better hope to win big among independents.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/why-early-get-out-vote-efforts-favor-clinton-ballot-requests-n653361

This was done 9/23, but I don't think it was posted here. Condenses a lot of Michael McDonald's random insights. I found it by Googling TargetSmart (the one that had the Clinton +3 Ohio poll recently). The Michigan party ID was estimated since the government doesn't track it.



In North Carolina/Pennsylvania, 18-29 are a higher % of ballot requests than 30-44 #GroundGame.

[HillOfANight]

http://iowastartingline.com/2016/09/29/the-state-of-iowas-early-vote-and-how-it-all-works/

Iowa: As of Thursday morning, Democrats have more than twice as many absentee ballots requested than Republicans. However, Democrats also lag far behind the number of absentees requested at this point in 2012, while Republicans are slightly ahead of their past performance. It’s not enough for Democrats to simply beat Republicans on the early vote, they need to do it by a wide margin.

The national Clinton campaign reportedly researched when the most effective time of the campaign was to talk with voters, and used that data to adjust the early vote schedule.

The first day early vote numbers were publicly reported, Democrats were only at 45% of their totals in 2012 at that time. Now they’re to 56%.

[HillOfANight]

This is just Wake County in NC (includes Raleigh/Durham/Cary):

Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  3h3 hours ago
Wake Co NC voted absentees 47 days pre-elex:

2016 1,739
D 42.4%
R 30.1
U 27.2

2012 185
D 32.4%
R 38.4
U 29.2

up 940%, 18% swing to D

There's a bit more detail in Cohen's FB post: https://www.facebook.com/gercohen/posts/10103848424398478

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/781890886120706048

Living in Wake County I can say there is no Democratic absentee ballot GOTV (yet). This is all self-motivated.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/why-early-get-out-vote-efforts-favor-clinton-ballot-requests-n653361

I'm dubious that this surge has nothing to do with the Clinton campaign... See 18-29 in NC > 30-44. Maybe he meant organizers haven't been prodding outstanding ballots to return themselves yet, but the campaign has targeted and instructed voters on the process.

[HillOfANight]

What does that mean? Have they been stockpiling forms, and will submit soon, or does it just mean the GOP is mostly self registering, while the Dems have been registering a lot of people manually?

[HillOfANight]

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2016-10-04/clinton-camp-hispanics-mail-ballot-requests-up-in-fla-n-c

Hispanic voters’ requests for mail ballots are up 73% in Fla. compared to this point in 2012 and 43% in N.C., Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s campaign says in "field report" memo.

Black voters’ mail ballot requests in N.C. are up 73% from 2012

[HillOfANight]

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2016/10/team-clinton-boasts-its-edging-gop-in-mailed-ballots-from-less-reliable-florida-voters.html

Some 2.7 million people have requested ballots, compared to 1.8 million at the same point in 2012, he said -- an almost 50 percent increase. Requests from Hispanics are up 77 percent from the same point in 2012, he said, and from Asian-Americans up nearly 80 percent.

But the most important bit of data he highlighted was ballot requests from "low-propensity" voters -- people who don't reliably participate in elections.

"We are turning out more of our low-propensity voters than the Republicans, and that's what really matters when you're trying to win an election in the margins," Mook said.

http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/both-major-partys-cannibalizing-as-they-post-vote-by-mails-gains-106084



Of the ballot requests, for those that didn't vote in 2012, 19% are Democrats, 16% Republicans.

[HillOfANight]

Ahha, you're right, that doesn't add up to 100%.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/784470654091419648

According to Nate Cohn/Upshot, at this point in mail voting, Romney was up 24. Trump is only up 1 among those who have returned mail ballots.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article106618097.html

Wisconsin: Numbers compiled by the state Elections Commission show that as of Friday, 70,740 absentee ballots have been returned statewide. Of those, 22,511 were from either Milwaukee or Dane counties, or about 31 percent of the total cast statewide. By comparison, in the heavily Republican suburban Milwaukee counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington, only 6,420 early votes have been cast.

[HillOfANight]

488K new registration forms submitted by the Florida Democratic Party; 60K by the Florida Republican Party

That could be worth 3-4 points. A gap that big is a structural shift in the electorate. About 8.5 million voted in the 2012 election in FL

What does this even mean though? Are these last minute forms being dumped, or are they already baked in the numbers?

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/politics/os-voter-registration-campaign-20160914-story.html
If it's baked in already, they have already been losing ground.

[HillOfANight]

Pre-debates votes cast, number of votes returned _ days before the 2016 election (purple). 2012=gray

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/11/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-debate-early-voting/
http://imgur.com/a/qNo2M
https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/785821423193366528?lang=en

[HillOfANight]

Would be interesting to know, of the GOP ballots, how much are Latino/Cuban/Hispanic.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/785878553749557249

North Carolina
- Black registration up 6% since 2012
- Latino registration up 50% since 2012

Florida
- 10/3 to 10/9, Dems outnumbered GOP mail ballot requests 2:1

Nevada
- Latino registration up 24% since 2012