The absentee/early vote thread

[Virginiá]

I don't understand - surely that huge absentee drop can't be entirely from a lack of organizing or anything, right? If it mostly just came from disillusioned Republicans, then that likely means that they will see a drop in in-person turnout as well.

If that were the case, isn't this very bad for NC Republicans? They could lose a lot if their turnout implodes while Democratic turnout edges up.

[Virginiá]

Didn't some counties in NC make early voting harder this year?

Wasn't that one of the reasons for all the lawsuits?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=241180.msg5327510#msg5327510

As I was saying in that, some of the cuts make no sense other than to suppress voting, given that the early voting hours/locations were different for the primary and only changed after the voter suppression law was struck down.

Anyway, for some of these counties, a lot more sites open up in the final 10 days of early voting, so cuts in some counties for the first 7 days isn't completely disastrous. I'm more worried about the flooded areas and whether or not displaced peoples there will end up voting, let alone piece their lives back together. Some of those places looked like they were in really bad shape.

Lord knows the state will not do anything to make voting easier for them. The NCGOP would put the polling places at the bottom of a lake if they could.

[Virginiá]

https://thinkprogress.org/north-carolina-counties-that-slashed-early-voting-sites-see-hours-long-lines-fcffa0151748#.18q2h5p92

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This is what happens when you cut early voting for partisan gain. Removing the straight-ticket option at the same time seems to be exacerbating the lines as well, as many voters now have to fill out everything individually instead of just 2 boxes like before.

Can't wait until Cooper boots McCrory out of office and thus Republicans lose control of early voting plans in 2018-2020.

[Virginiá]

On the other hand, if all vote-by-mail states (such as CO) show a significant Democratic advantage a day before election day (when 95% of CO ballots have been mailed back already), then there's reason to believe Trump will be heavily defeated (yet we still don't know how Indys voted) ...

Colorado still has in-person voting, but because of the all-mail system they reduced the number of polling stations. I can't find the source, so I could be wrong, but I recall reading a year ago that a majority of voters didn't vote by mail in 2014 (but I imagine that will pick up as more people become comfortable with the process)

[Virginiá]

Not exactly an early voting post but...
As Kyle Kondik mentioned on twitter California Republicans are probably facing a downballot disaster. The presidential election is uncompetitive, the senate election is between two Democrats, throw in Trump's meltdown and that means that Republican voters have almost zero motivation to go to the polls. Bad news for Issa, Knight and perhaps many other congressmen.

Not to mention the state legislature. Democrats could really have a shot at a comfortable supermajority if it does indeed turn out to be hell on earth for the CA GOP. That would essentially seal their fate as nothing but a inland rump party.

[Virginiá]

What's up with decreased black turnout in NC?

[img]

Polling places where African Americans are have been cut down by Republicans.

Oh, I should've guessed. What a disgrace.

Yes, they really did a number in some areas. Guilford County (where Greensboro is) only has 1 early voting site for the entire county. Mecklenburg was cut, Forsyth has just 1 site iirc, and a number of other counties were cut. Also, I think some areas with high African American population were hit with bad flooding not long ago, right?

Anyway, these insane cuts to early voting were only for the first 7 days of early voting. Lots more sites (probably still down from 2012 tho) will open for the last 10 days. This was due to the GOP trying to find a way around the 4th circuit ordering them restore 7 days of early voting.

If early voting is truly the cause, then we should see turnout for AA spike in the last 10 days. If other high-AA pop. counties that weren't cut to the bone have high African American turnout, then I imagine that early voting is definitely the issue.

If Cooper wins, I'd expect him to flood the state with early voting sites for 2018 & 2020 since the Governor's party controls the state/local election boards. GOP won't be able to pull this crap next time.

[Virginiá]

https://www.texascivilrightsproject.org/en/2016/10/25/release-early-voters-see-problems-with-photo-id-intimidation/

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Considering the ruling requiring Texas to allow those without IDs to vote after signing an affidavit has been known for months now, there is really no excuse here. Knowing Texas, I'm inclined to think they pulled something similar to what Wisconsin did the past 3~ months, where they are given a court order to make changes and then instead of doing the necessary retraining, they only send out a few memos here and there knowing full well that many mistakes will be made and many workers will inevitably think they are still requiring photo ID.

[Virginiá]

At what point might we be able to reasonably estimate the turnout for this election?

I understand population growth has an effect here, but even with that, it almost seems like turnout might at least be on par with 2012, which was considered high turnout.

[Virginiá]

Adding the polling places created a huge surge in Guilford County

https://twitter.com/HPEpaul/status/791744287998353408

This should help to begin filling some of the gaps we've been seeing in African American turnout. I just hope that people who wanted to vote before but didn't still end up voting now that far more sites have been opened.

[Virginiá]

WBAL Baltimore News
@wbaltv11
Final update per MD State Board of Elections: 125,914 voters checked-in day one of early voting. Entire early voting period in 2012: 107,385

Wow. Shame MD only holds legislative elections during midterms, else this year would probably be a jackpot for Democrats.

[Virginiá]

WBAL Baltimore News
@wbaltv11
Final update per MD State Board of Elections: 125,914 voters checked-in day one of early voting. Entire early voting period in 2012: 107,385

Wow. Shame MD only holds legislative elections during midterms, else this year would probably be a jackpot for Democrats.

Can Dems maximize their map much more in MD?

The Congressional map is maxed out, the State Senate could be beefed up a little bit more, and they could probably expand their State House majority by up to 15 - 20 seats or so.

But I don't know about a presidential year. These years are when the Democratic coalition is at its best, and in a state like Maryland that has a very large minority population, that could make a good bit of difference given the tendencies of young & non-white voters to sit out midterms.

I do know that their legislative terms are a bit redundant. Both chambers have 4 year terms and no staggered elections, so it seems pointless. They should at least have the House hold elections every 2 years.

[Virginiá]

2012 FL exit polls had it at 67-13-17, so not much change except a weird drop in black turnout. What's all the rest supposed to be?

I wonder why that is. I would have to assume that such a drop right now is something that will eventually even out, even if only on election day. Even in 2004, before Obama, African American's share of the FL electorate was 12% (vs 13% in 2008/2012)

A 5% drop would be an unmitigated disaster for Democrats.

[Virginiá]

relax.

hispanic turnout increased and florida started with EIPV just a few days ago.

if it is still the same next tuesday, you can worry.

Oh I'm not really worried. I might have been if it said 11% but 8% is too far off to mark for me to consider it a valid representation of 2016's FL electorate. Such a collapse in turnout within just a 4 year time span is wildly unrealistic unless say, Republicans had reintroduced a watered down version of Jim Crow voting restrictions.

[Virginiá]

Those numbers are of people who didn't either didn't vote in 2012 or are newly registered voters since 2012.

Ohh whoops!

BUT still, if it is among new / non-2012 voters, shouldn't African American turnout (among that group) still eventually average out to 12% - 13%? Since it doesn't, at least right now, couldn't that be interpreted to either be a slowing of African American participation post-Obama or perhaps that because African American participation in FL is already so high, it can't go much higher? (particularly in FL with almost 1/4 black adults being disenfranchised)

[Virginiá]

I wonder if it is indeed the case that a rapid shift in enthusiasm occurs, that we will see in the early voting data by next weekend, or perhaps sooner?

[Virginiá]

Additionally, Oregon now has automatic driver license voter registration, which is likely expanding voter registration levels among first-time drivers, as well as those who need to renew their driver's license every 7-8 years.

This is why automatic voter registration is even more critical in states with vote-by-mail like CO/WA/OR. With everyone who interacts with the DMV getting registered, they automatically end up receiving a ballot with no extra steps on their part. The next step would be to automatically register those who interact with other public agencies, like Illinois was trying to do (before Rauner vetoed it)

I'm curious what the final numbers will be in Oregon. I'd expect more than usual, even with any higher turnout trends factored in, but then again I've also heard speculation that turnout as a share of the registered voter electorate, it could be smaller because even people who are registered who wouldn't have been otherwise, it doesn't mean they all end up voting, which could cause the % of registered voters who voted to be lower than usual even if way more people ended up voting in general.

But, we'll see!

[Virginiá]

the dixiecrats in FL should be dead by now...don't know why but this state has had a BIG realignment regarding party registration since 2012.

Oh wow, in that case all of these comparisons to Florida early voting in 2008 aren't very accurate.  If Democrats are beating their early voting totals in 2008 despite Dixiecrats switching over to Republicans... that's a very good sign.

Upshot did a big story on why Republicans were gaining so much in registrations in states like PA, NC, FL, etc. It's basically just a combination of people getting removed from the rolls due to death/moved/etc and also very much that people still registered as Democrats but have been voting Republican for years are just now switching their registrations for one reason or another. Even in 2012 there were some counties whose Democratic reg numbers suggested they were a deeply Democratic area despite Republicans winning in landslides there.

In addition, they also said that the Democratic share of the registrations will continue to drop sharply over the next 4+ years, but it doesn't mean there are more Republicans now. In fact, Upshot also went on to state that Democrats are still winning the new registration race bigly, just as we did in 2012.

So I dunno about 'Dixiecrats' or what people mean by it in this thread, but there are still plenty of registered Democrats who ceased supporting Democrats long ago.

[Virginiá]

Off-topic here but guys please if you're going to quote StatesPoll for some reason, strip his stupid gifs out of the quoted text for gods sake. It's bad enough that he's acting like he's on 4chan, but quoting his images just makes it worse.

[Virginiá]

This doesnt look well for the Democrats

Looking at a lot of the data for NC, much of it does indeed look not so good for Democrats. Black turnout is down, youth turnout is down, Democratic turnout down from 2012 (slightly) while Republican turnout up (slightly).

However I'd like to add a couple things:

1. NC is among the states with a high level of movement from Democratic voter registrations -> Republican registrations. This is not because Republicans are picking up many new voters (Democrats still gaining big in that dept), but because long-time R voters who were still reg. as Democrats are now switching, or ones who died/moved were being purged. Naturally this would lead to less Democrats and more Republicans in the early numbers.

2. The polls pretty much everywhere have shown a lot of coalition mixing. White college graduates & white women who are most likely still registered Republicans but supporting Hillary this year and white working class men who are likely still registered Democrats supporting Trump will make guessing the current status of the NC race pretty difficult.

3. Young & black voter turnout drops will also hurt Democrats. These two demographics are the bread and butter of the NC Democratic coalition. If their numbers don't increase on election day, Democrats will need to either a) win a higher proportion of young voters, similar to Obama '08, or 2) pull a lot more older and/or Republican voters

But, the polls have been relatively rosy for Democrats in NC and I'd like to think that their screens captured some of these issues, so for now I'd say whatever is happening in the early vote doesn't doom her chances here at all.

[Virginiá]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC161025/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina_Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%2030,%202016.pdf#page=3
In Marist's poll where they have her up 6, they have Blacks at 22% of voters, which is where they are in early voting... The Black early vote should be much higher to end up at 22%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/New_York_Times_Siena_NC_Oct_25th.pdf
Upshot has it at 20%, and that could be too high, no?

Well I would also say that the election laws have changed since 2012, and this year we saw less early voting opportunities in NC, and in some counties with a lot of African Americans - substantially less. In fact, as few opportunities as legally allowed. Further, the loss of straight ticket voting inevitably creates longer wait times there is a big difference between 2 bubbles and 10+. So it's possible that many African Americans who intended to vote early (and may have tried) have decided to put it off until election day, when there will be polling places aplenty. Admittedly, this is my more optimistic view of things. I just think that the severe reduction of early voting in many places is making black turnout look worse than it will end up being.

20% doesn't seem too high to me. I wish I could compare it to 2004, but the EPs show African Americans at 26% of the NC electorate then, even when their turnout was 4-6% lower (nationally). That doesn't seem right given it was only 23% in 2008.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/5297180/
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/exitpolls/north-carolina.html
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NC/president/

[Virginiá]

Didn't Obama win Iowa by a fairly significant margin (like 5% or so)?  Why is there paranoia about matching his exact early vote in 2012?  

No idea. That Democrats are doing well so far in early voting is reason enough to at least not panic over Iowa. She doesn't need to win by 5.81% like Obama in 2012. If she wins it by 0.5%, it's still a win, and the only ones who might suffer in that scenario are a limited set of downballot IA Democrats that get starved of some marginal coattails.

[Virginiá]

re lower black turnout... perhaps the republican strategy of voter suppression finally is working... didn't they close a bunch of early voting places in states like North Carolina, etc.?

As per that insightus link, it's still down somewhat in counties whose early voting options were not savagely cut. Off the top of my head, counties unaffected by either saw roughly 10% drop (100%=> 90%~) and counties affected by EV cuts and/or hurricane saw 100% => 72%~.

Seems to be a correction from the high AA enthusiasm behind Obama. I'd imagine a fair amount of that is coming from a drop in Millennial turnout.

Either way, it's highly unlikely we end up seeing some massive drop in national AA turnout. 66% -> 64% seems likely, as said above. Even more drastic, maybe 66% -> 62%. I don't feel comfortably speculating lower than that. Attributing all post-2004 black turnout increases to Obama is too simplistic thinking, since it was trending upwards since the 90s, and it also ignores the fact that people who vote tend to have a better chance of voting again, increasing the more they vote.

The only way I can see such a massive implosion of AA turnout is if there is a general implosion of turnout among all demographics. Otherwise, it doesn't make sense for it to go below 60% (pre-Obama) while other demographics maintain turnout, or even increase.

[Virginiá]

Mook says that "door knocks last weekend in PA were up 261% from same weekend in 2012; 108% in OH"

- can't link yet, but I saw it on Twitter.

I'll be joining them this weekend.

Doing the same with my partner in WI.

I've been pulling shifts almost every day now for over a week and a half. I think I've reminded at least 20 - 25 people with absentee ballots to send them in, though whether or not they did is anyone's guess.

Lack of enthusiasm in the local African American neighborhoods is palpable, though.

[Virginiá]

Compared to Obama (which is OK) or compared to Gore/Kerry (which is not OK)

I'm not sure. This is my first election that I've canvassed in. It's not that they aren't voting - it seems like all the older (30 - 35+) African Americans I've talked to are definitely voting.. it's the younger ones. I have noticed a steep decline in interest between knocking on a middle+ age black voter's door and a <30 door. It doesn't seem like they are against Hillary, but they just seem really turned off to the whole thing. However, most of them said they were going to vote, but it sounded to me like a 50/50 or maybe 60/40 chance that they vote as opposed to 80/20 for the older folks.


@Arch: aren't many non-Cuban hispanics registered as independent/non-affiliated? I haven't kept track of those statistics but as I understand it, many Puerto Ricans have not associated with either party officially but still lean heavily Democratic. Combined with the Dem-Rep registration changes, that may mean things are rosier for Democrats in FL than early voting stats would suggest. Especially since we're going to have a good deal more Cubans voting for Clinton this year.

[Virginiá]

Consider this the *VERY* early vote for 2032

southpaw ‏@nycsouthpaw  28m28 minutes ago
Scholastic poll of 153,000 K-12 students (Clinton 52% - Trump 35%) suggests, perhaps, the GOP's future predicament. http://election.scholastic.com/vote/

...

Actually, based on the voting patterns of young adult Millennials over the past 15~ years, that looks pretty accurate (save for Idaho & Utah)