The absentee/early vote thread

[psychprofessor]

Robby Mook conf call today:

Shane Goldmacher ‏@ShaneGoldmacher  14m14 minutes ago
Mook says Clinton campaign set to break “vote by mail records in Florida”

Shane Goldmacher ‏@ShaneGoldmacher  12m12 minutes ago
Mook says Hispanic ballot requests in NC are up 33% compared to 2012. White requests are down.

Shane Goldmacher ‏@ShaneGoldmacher  9m9 minutes ago
In conference call, Robby Mook says total vote in 2016 will break records. Relevant amid talk of dispiriting campaign driving down turnout.

[psychprofessor]

anecdotal, but....drip drip drip

Kim TC ‏@kimtcga  1h1 hour ago
@DemFromCT @MSNBC polling place here in GA has been slammed all day, on 1st day of early voting. Almost all HRC voters that I can tell.

[psychprofessor]

only question reamining would be if...as sean trende says 10 times each day....there are more dem voters this time or they are just sooo motivated that they are "cannibalizing" their election day vote.

Fortunately, even if it is just "cannibalizing" the election day vote, it is ensuring that the people who might be turned away from hours-long lines get multiple chances, and I'm guessing a lot of the unable-to-vote demographic in states like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina are Democrats.

I also think Mook's strategy is to use early voting as a way to reach soft Hillary supporters. The committed one's will vote no matter what, but team HRC seems to be making a concerted effort to get the soft supporters over to early vote to ensure they are captured.

[psychprofessor]

Florida absentees capturing a Latino surge:

daniel a. smith
daniel a. smith –  ‏@electionsmith

Absentee ballots cast in 2012 GE at this time, 80% by Whites, 9% by Hispanics, 8% by blacks. Thru 10/22/2016, the %s are:
76% W
12% H
8% B

[psychprofessor]

more good florida dem news:

Adam Smith
Adam Smith – Verified account ‏@adamsmithtimes

1.2 mil Floridians have voted by mail: 504k Reps, 483k Dems, 220k others. GOP had 5 point mail advantage at this point in 12. Today, 1.7

[psychprofessor]

Just voted on campus at UT-Austin! My anecdote is particularly useless since I can't compare it to a previous prez election here, but I think it looked decently, if not overwhelmingly, busy. For 8:30 am on day one, I would guess 25 other people were voting there at the same time as me, and the stream was staying steady.

battleground texas

[psychprofessor]

Whoa, Democrats surging in VBM in NEBRASKA:

2016:

VBM Requests: D 30,910 46% R 23,408 35% I 11,881 18% Total 66,768

2012:

vs. 2012 Requests: D 26,019 118.8% R 23,560 99.4% I 10,070 118.0% Total 59,980 111.3%

[psychprofessor]

texas gonna be close

[psychprofessor]

Florida is toast for Trump, guys

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 37m37 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

CORREX:  Broward had 30k more votes early today (not 25k). Almost tied record day one numbers!!!  #SteveCantAdd

[psychprofessor]

Florida is crushing it

 Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 3m3 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

Dems also win GOP-leaning Volusia County (Daytona) on day 2, by roughly same narrow margin as day 1.
0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 7m7 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

Day 2 of Orange County (Orlando) outpaced Day 1. Dems crush it again there, win 50-28%.

[psychprofessor]

Is that better or worse than previous early voting in Oregon?

In 2012 there were ~140k ballots cast by the third reporting day of early voting, which is lower than the  170k cast in three days of early voting this year.

Unfortunately, I can't see the party breakdown of EV for 2012 yet to see what the trend looks like.

I will note that the early vote numbers in 2016 are significantly higher in heavily rural and older Republican counties in Eastern and Southern Oregon than the statewide average, but I don't think that is particularly unusual.

What is interesting is that almost 11% have already been returned in overwhelmingly Democratic Multnomah County, also lagging in both the Democratic suburbs of Washington County, former Democratic strongholds of Coos & Columbia with large working-class Whites that have been trending Republican over the past few decades, and anemic in Jackson County in Southern Oregon, which is on my 2012-2016 flip R to D list, as well as Yamhill County (Exurban PDX).

Hey everyone! Been lurking here at Atlas since 2008, but following this thread finally pushed me to register, because I've been following Oregon's numbers closely. I can't post the link because I don't have enough posts, but just google "oregon cumulative daily ballot returns" and the second link is a pdf with the return rates since 2000 on the SoS' website.

Here's what I've gleaned:

Oregon almost always hits 70% turnout in midterms, and hits 81-84% in presidentials. The vote is coming in this year at a rate that definitely looks guaranteed to hit 80% turnout, and very possibly closer to 85%. We just need a couple more days to get a clearer picture.

You're very right about Multnomah; it almost always lags the rest of the state until the day before election day and the day itself, when the avalanche of lefty Portland NAVs finally sweeps in. I remember the Mult overall return numbers in 2014 being mired in the single digits for several days longer than this. They do have several barnburner city/county races there this year, so maybe that's driving turnout.

And the rural, conservative counties do tend to come in heavy early. It's yet another way that the Oregon electorate regularly Lucy-and-the-footballs the state GOP. I remember the reddish-heavy early vote in 2014 causing all the conservative posters on OregonLive to gloat in the weeks before in the election. Instead, we were in the only state in the country to increase Democratic majorities in both houses. Woops!

welcome!

[psychprofessor]

Tom Bonier ‏@tbonier
OH Dem surge continues - Cuyahoga/Franklin now account for 21.4% of EV. Were 15.2% last Thursday, and 20% yesterday.

Belal Said ‏@BelalMSaid
@tbonier how does that compare to 2012?
Tom Bonier
Tom Bonier –  ‏@tbonier

@BelalMSaid 26.9%. So the upward trend will need to continue. But the early underperformance may just have been overwhelmed clerks.
5:18 AM - 27 Oct 2016

[psychprofessor]

sounds like..other than solid dem NV...nobody can really see clear winner in NC/FL.

Nate Cohn
Nate Cohn – Verified account ‏@Nate_Cohn

Clinton leads by 22 points among nearly 1 million N.C. early voters, according to our estimates

[psychprofessor]

NC early vote update:


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

So in NC Primary turnout between 2008 and 2016, we see Democrats losing 29% and Republicans more than doubling! Obama won NC by < 1%.


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Republican Primary turnout in NC up from 2008 by over 100%!!!



Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Democrat Primary turnout in NC down from 2008 by 29%.


NC looking really good for R's right now which is one of the several must win states for Trump!

god, this just soiled the thread

[psychprofessor]

schale's tweets are super-interesting but he seems a little bit vague (i understand that we are going to know much more after this weekend).....in general he says it is fine but not good enough right now.

if the dems overtake the GOP and start banking votes, i guess we can sleep better.

read between the lines, he's ecstatic

[psychprofessor]

Nebraska, and specifically NE-02 looking good

Douglas #NE02
Requests
D 33,106 47%
R 24,621 35%
I 12,824 18%
Total 71,179

Returns
D 22,063 48%
R 16,145 35%
I 7,104 16%
Total 45,559

[psychprofessor]

These results in specific are, overall, good for D, right?

they are still lacking regarding hispanic support but they have potential.

in 3-4 days the experts promise they can deliver good projections.

Thanks. Please keep us updated. It's much appreciated

As VBM stats are older and whiter, as each day of EIP takes place, the demos become more diverse. Look what happens after this weekend - you'll see hispanic and black percentages increase.

[psychprofessor]

clark county (NV) looking stronger today....
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/792073071356108800?lang=de

read between the lines, ralston thinks nevada is all but toast for trump

[psychprofessor]

dems won 2012 by 6 points with a lead of 60k.

even 40k should be "enough" if their turnout works. contrary: this is the state with the best trump machine.

I've said it multiple times, I think they need a 50K margin in party preference going into Election Day to win. 40K is very iffy. The numbers back a tie in Iowa which is what quinnipiac came up with

I just read somewhere that Clinton's inner circle believes Arizona is more likely to go to Clinton than Iowa. Either way, she'll be in both states next week :-)

[psychprofessor]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

Tony wants a 50 point win, anything less than that is bad, even if Hillary wins by a 2012 margin.

Are you aware that there's a Senate race in Nevada too?

Of course, and the candidate is one who is much better than what was nominated 4 years ago.

Sure, but the polls are a bit too close to feel comfortable. If NV turnout had been up a lot, we could have been able to call it for CCM.

There is nothing alarming in the NV stats...Hillary is pulling the same out of Clark and overperforming by a little in Washoe. Ralston all but declared Trump toast when HRC's lead in Clark is larger than 60k. She is at 40k now with another week to go. Step back from the ledge.

Dems won Clark by 3,600 votes on Friday - raw vote lead 40K. Same as '12 but percentage lower because more voters. Detailed post coming.

[psychprofessor]

Meanwhile, we can all but officially put NV in Clinton's EV #:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes, NV has been over for Trump. I'd like to see Cortez-Masto pull through, though.

[psychprofessor]

Huge move in Ohio for the Dems

OH: Big Dem surge Sat/Sun. Franklin vote only 0.9% behind '12 (was 6.7% Oct 20) and Cuyahoga is 1.9% down on '12 (was '4.9%)
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/793065727397879809

Frankin County moving almost to parity is significant because that's Ohio State so the college kids were voting this weekend. Bonier expects early voting turnout in both counties to exceed 2012. Possible Comey effect firing up Dems?

Yes, looks like EV in Ohio for DEMS will surpass 2012

Tom Bonier @tbonier
@RogersBIGFAN Yes. If the current trend continues through this week, Dems will be ahead of '12. Big if still.

[psychprofessor]

Taniel ‏@Taniel  30s31 seconds ago
27% of all Colorado voters have now returned their ballots—& in this equally divided state, registered Dems have a 3.6% edge among voters.

Taniel ‏@Taniel  1m1 minute ago
Colorado's turnout rate so far (via @NickRiccardi's raw #s):
—among registered Dems: 33%
—among registered Reps: 30%
—among others: just 20%

(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  10m10 minutes ago
(((Harry Enten))) Retweeted Taniel
Give a little context here. In 2014 (a strong GOP year in CO), GOP had a 7 pt edge in early voters.(((Harry Enten))) added,
Taniel @Taniel
27% of all Colorado voters have now returned their ballots—& in this equally divided state, registered Dems have a 3.6% edge among voters.
0 replies 12 retweets 33 likes

[psychprofessor]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  23m23 minutes ago
North Carolina demographic characteristics of unaffiliated (no party reg) #earlyvote (as of 10/30)

This demo breakdown for unaffiliated in NC looks awful for Trump. Perhaps one of the reasons why EV polling is so big for Clinton in NC.

[psychprofessor]

Find this board to funny, literally. Were tracking Texas like it might actually go D this cycle LOL. Only on atlas. No tracking or polls for the most part showing that Wisconsin, Minn & PA are within 3-5%. But were keeping daily totals on Texas because Hillary is going to flip that state LOL. Give me a break already.

What about daily Polls in the 3 above states, NM, NH and Michigan and see what they look like if we poll them everyday. No reason i guess because the Media has told us every one of those states is a lock for Clinton and she has double digit leads in all of them. Yet we have polls daily with Georgia and Arizona.  

Sorry to be a buzzkill, but the actual polls show us Texas is closer right now than PA, WI and MN. That's just the facts.