The absentee/early vote thread

[Dr. Arch]

Of the 28,187 NC ballots sent as of today:

81.6% White 11.2% Black 1.3% Asian 0.2% Native American

37.5% Dem 34.7% Rep 27.6% Unaffiliated 0.3% Lib

Is this number updated daily or?

[Dr. Arch]

Early surge in absentee requests from Youngstown, Ohio.

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http://www.vindy.com/news/2016/sep/15/requests-to-vote-by-mail-surge-above--le/?mobile

Hopefully a good sign.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm likely voting early so that I can spend election day giving people rides to the polls.

[Dr. Arch]

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From Ari Berman

[Dr. Arch]

FWIW Hillary Clinton has received at least one vote in Minnesota. Feels weird to have done my civic duty 6 weeks before the election. 

Thank you

[Dr. Arch]

Not looking good for Trump. And what's up with Iowa? I thought it was Lean R or something?

[Dr. Arch]

Not looking good for Trump. And what's up with Iowa? I thought it was Lean R or something?

Woah... did the IA ground-game suddenly just wake up?

Maybe Robby Mook DOES know what he's doing

He IS a piece of work after all

-ahem- Back to the subject, it looks like something big is happening in Iowa that the polls aren't catching for Dem ballots to be leading by such an overwhelming amount.

[Dr. Arch]

This is just Wake County in NC (includes Raleigh/Durham/Cary):

Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  3h3 hours ago
Wake Co NC voted absentees 47 days pre-elex:

2016 1,739
D 42.4%
R 30.1
U 27.2

2012 185
D 32.4%
R 38.4
U 29.2

up 940%, 18% swing to D

There's a bit more detail in Cohen's FB post: https://www.facebook.com/gercohen/posts/10103848424398478

Bad signs for Trump all around. He needs to be winning absentee ballots unquestionably to even match Romney.

[Dr. Arch]

This is just Wake County in NC (includes Raleigh/Durham/Cary):

Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  3h3 hours ago
Wake Co NC voted absentees 47 days pre-elex:

2016 1,739
D 42.4%
R 30.1
U 27.2

2012 185
D 32.4%
R 38.4
U 29.2

up 940%, 18% swing to D

There's a bit more detail in Cohen's FB post: https://www.facebook.com/gercohen/posts/10103848424398478

https://twitter.com/gercohen/status/781890886120706048

Living in Wake County I can say there is no Democratic absentee ballot GOTV (yet). This is all self-motivated.

Sweet

[Dr. Arch]

Could be that campus organizations (College Democrats) in North Carolina are driving absentee turnout.

They're doing it here in Wisconsin. I've seen several college campuses with tables full of absentee ballot pages in areas with lots of student movement, so it wouldn't surprise me.

A lot of these are managed by young women too.

[Dr. Arch]

I see my prediction of Democrats taking the edge in active voter registration this month in Colorado has come true. Historic!

(づ◕‿‿◕)づ [Accolades]

[Dr. Arch]

To counter what is going to be a very heavy Democratic early vote, the Repubs have to be leading the Florida VBM by a minimum of 250K to have a chance. Today the VBM narrowed to a 110K advantage for the GOP. Additionally, a lot of Florida independents are Hispanic so the Indy vote is pretty close to even there

From several days ago,

"Statewide, Republicans are ahead in ballot requests — 43 percent to 38 percent.
That's a much narrower gap than in 2008, the most recent in which comparable data was available. At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent, according to data analyzed for the AP by Catalist, a Democratic firm that helped run data operations for President Obama's 2008 race. Obama won the state by 2.8 percentage points."


Trump has to be significantly ahead in ballot request. McCain lost FL by 2.8% despite being up 51-32% at a certain point.

Yeah, Florida is essentially a reverse Iowa.

I'll gladly take that trade.

[Dr. Arch]

Added an update from Wisconsin, which puts the number of people who have voted over a quarter million: 268,623
4 retweets 3 likes
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 1h1 hour ago

How much of that is from Dane/MKE?

[Dr. Arch]

Added an update from Wisconsin, which puts the number of people who have voted over a quarter million: 268,623
4 retweets 3 likes
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 1h1 hour ago

How much of that is from Dane/MKE?

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

http://www.gab.wi.gov/node/4200

DANE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 17761
Absentee Ballots Returned 9719

MKE stands for Milwaukee I assume?

MILWAUKEE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 18721
Absentee Ballots Returned 6883

Yes, and how does that compare to previous years (if the data is available)?

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/_TargetSmart/status/786273435278127104

Party affiliation of early voters (estimated for Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia). Comparisons can't really be made to 2012 yet, since in person early voting dominates in Georgia, North Carolina.

Looking good in IA, WI, VA and MI.

[Dr. Arch]

Good numbers from Trump in FL and NC, which have already been strongest Republican swing-states in 2012. He must win those states. I don't care about Virginia and Wisconsin, Clinton can carry them by double-digits (that looks realistic) if only Trump will edge the ones he needs.

He's actually underperforming Romney and McCain in both of these states so these are not good numbers for him.

[Dr. Arch]

I just mailed my absentee ballot this morning

Congrats and thanks

[Dr. Arch]

Democrats took the lead in Florida with returned ballots!

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!!

[Dr. Arch]

The entire East Coast is going to send a strong rebuke to Trump this cycle. I can feel it coming.

[Dr. Arch]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  53s54 seconds ago
In Georgia today 91,951 people voted. 31% were African-American, pushing the overall African-American early vote percentage from 19% to 27%

Whoa. It's happening!

[Dr. Arch]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 1,950,090 votes or 4.2% of the 2012 early vote.

Big spike from a couple of days ago.

[Dr. Arch]

Parents sadly turned in their Florida Trump ballots. Surprisingly voted for medical marijuana though.

[Dr. Arch]

Parents sadly turned in their Florida Trump ballots. Surprisingly voted for medical marijuana though.

You're back!

Ugh

[Dr. Arch]

It's unclear how much of this is population growth. You have Trump-loving Sumter County (The Villages) and the Puerto Rican Diaspora in Osceola County with higher turnout, but they're both also growing quickly in population.

Also, you can see where Matthew hit.

Some polls are showing Trump trailing Rubio by 10-12%. I don't know how it works in USA, but can someone cast "Republican ballot"  with Clinton+Rubio?

Of course

[Dr. Arch]

I could be wrong, but i was under the assumption from previous elections that early voting usually was prodmitally an advantage for the democrat nominee as most of those votes went to that candidate.

If thats true, anywhere early voting is down compared to 2008 and 2012 is probably a good thing for republicans as there base typically votes more aggressively on the actual election day.

Depends on the state. In NC and FL, for instance, that has definitely not been the case. Republican ballots are massively down for them this year, while Democrat ones are slightly or significantly up.