The absentee/early vote thread

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Of the 28,187 NC ballots sent as of today:

81.6% White 11.2% Black 1.3% Asian 0.2% Native American

37.5% Dem 34.7% Rep 27.6% Unaffiliated 0.3% Lib

Would you, please, link to the source?

Does it update every day?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I think, I founded the source, that updates (daily?).

There is probably a simpler way, who knows.

I founded it on http://www.ncsbe.gov/  "Download Data" section. If you then from  https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/list.html go to "ENRS/" folder and choose sort by "LastModified", you will find a file named "absentee11xx08xx2016.zip".

It is an csv file that can be opened for example by Excel.

According to it:

37810 have voted so far:

DEM: 14005, 37.0%
REP:  13165, 34.8%
LIB:      120,   0.3%
UNA: 10520, 27.8%


EDIT: last update was 11 hours ago. They probably won't update under weekend.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I think, I founded the source, that updates (daily?).

There is probably a simpler way, who knows.

I founded it on http://www.ncsbe.gov/  "Download Data" section. If you then from  https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/list.html go to "ENRS/" folder and choose sort by "LastModified", you will find a file named "absentee11xx08xx2016.zip".

It is an csv file that can be opened for example by Excel.

According to it:

37810 have voted so far:

DEM: 14005, 37.0%
REP:  13165, 34.8%
LIB:      120,   0.3%
UNA: 10520, 27.8%

Thanks. Can you update those numbers for us every day?

IDK, probably. But I think, there are plenty of statistics junkies, who'd love to do it on daily basis.

Tender?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I've made a tiny Python script that shows demographics stats as well.

Total:
DEM    14006
REP    13169
UNA    10520
LIB      120

Men:
REP    5831
DEM    4935
UNA    4771
LIB      75

Women:
DEM    8864
REP    7199
UNA    5455
LIB      40

Undecided:
UNA    294
DEM    207
REP    139
LIB      5

18-29:
UNA    2494
DEM    2142
REP    1761
LIB      44

30-44:
DEM    1767
UNA    1652
REP    1397
LIB      45

45-64:
DEM    3173
REP    3123
UNA    2399
LIB      20

65 & over:
DEM    6924
REP    6888
UNA    3975
LIB      11

White:
REP    12488
DEM     9388
UNA     8746
LIB       90

Other: (includes UNDESIGNATED)
DEM    4618
UNA    1774
REP     681
LIB      30

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I think, I founded the source, that updates (daily?)
37810 have voted so far:

Is that voted though, or requests?
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/774603224967892992
Per Michael McDonald

As of yesterday in NC:
27 people have voted
37,758 outstanding ballot reqs

Yes, you are right.

Requests.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

 https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/list.html

Why not the direct link?

Because they might change the name of file. Who knows.

https://dl.ncsbe.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016.zip

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Can you just post the numbers? I can't find the right page.

This file
https://dl.ncsbe.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016.zip

Column "ballot_request_party"

They updated the zip-file today (they seem to update it each morning), but the data itself hasn't been updated..

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It is, of course, to early (just 38K so far have requested a ballot vs 2.7M that voted in 2012). But still:

Cumulative sum by date of request (Note: overlapping!!):
green = unaffiliated

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Raw numbers, please?

They haven't changed since this post ↓↓↓

Total:
DEM    14006
REP     13169
UNA    10520
LIB         120

[Erich Maria Remarque]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/774245192467480577
Is there a way to track daily stats by demographics?

Yes, https://dl.ncsbe.gov.s3.amazonaws.com/ENRS/absentee11xx08xx2016.zip

which seems like a huge Dem lead

Why?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Total requested ballots (compared to 09/13):
DEM                    15682 (+897)
REP                     14873 (+872)
UNA                    11839 (+680)
LIB                          138 (+  11)

Total returned and accepted ballots (compared to 09/13):
DEM                       163 (+83)
REP                          92 (+47)
UNA                         81 (+35)
LIB                             2 (+  1)

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Total requested ballots (compared to morning 09/14):
DEM                    16629 (+  947)
REP                     15886 (+1013)
UNA                    12685 (+  846)
LIB                         145 (+     7)

Total returned and accepted ballots (compared to morning 09/14):
DEM                       257 (+94)
REP                        154 (+62)
UNA                       131 (+50)
LIB                            3 (+  1)
[/quote]

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Parents sadly turned in their Florida Trump ballots. Surprisingly voted for medical marijuana though.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It's unclear how much of this is population growth. You have Trump-loving Sumter County (The Villages) and the Puerto Rican Diaspora in Osceola County with higher turnout, but they're both also growing quickly in population.

Also, you can see where Matthew hit.

Some polls are showing Trump trailing Rubio by 10-12%. I don't know how it works in USA, but can someone cast "Republican ballot"  with Clinton+Rubio?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It's unclear how much of this is population growth. You have Trump-loving Sumter County (The Villages) and the Puerto Rican Diaspora in Osceola County with higher turnout, but they're both also growing quickly in population.

Also, you can see where Matthew hit.

Some polls are showing Trump trailing Rubio by 10-12%. I don't know how it works in USA, but can someone cast "Republican ballot"  with Clinton+Rubio?

Yes, splitting tickets is legal and used to be very common

Then the image above is bad news for Trump. I think, it will be more latino (R) Clinton+Rubio votes this year than usually...

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 3,841,020 votes or 8.3% of the total 2012 early vote.

Do we know, how many voted in 2012 during the same period?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

My guess is that the true believers are coming out for Trump with in person voting, but it should revert to traditional trends of Democrats dominating early voting. TargetSmart's #s look weird/outdated for North Carolina, unless they think white Dems are Republicans this year...

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/789477974353518592
Registered Republicans were only 24% of 1st day in person voters.

That's probably worse for them than 2012, and we still have Souls to the Polls to expand the advantage. In Iowa, the best analyst is Pat Rynard (the Iowa Starting Line guy). He recently posted that the Democrats are recovering their position and starting to impose their will in the ground game after falling behind early.

It is not about ground-game lol. Trump is trailing in polls. What analysis do you need? Or did you think that trend in polls was not real?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The trends in early voting pretty much agree with the recent polls, so I don't really see any reasons to question them. First, when they don't, we can make some hyphothesis to explain it.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Remember that both Trump and Clinton did really well with early voters in the primary.  I would expect the early vote to be up significantly nationwide and probably more evenly split than in 2012.  Also, keep in mind that the NeverTrump segment of the GOP tends to be the more ideologically opposed to early voting than anyone else in the country.  If there is a GOP turnout collapse, it will likely happen on election day itself.  If Clinton has problems with Sanders supporters, that should also show up more on election day than in the early vote.

Can you elaborate it? I thought that neverTrumpers are mostly well-educated that voted for Kasich. Or? Is there any research how a typical neverTrumper looks like?

And what does  "ideologically opposed to early voting" mean?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

skill proposes, people who ideologically are against the concept of early voting wouldn't vote early.

i am sceptical.

I don't really understand what ideology has to do with early voting? Education/income - yes, but ideology?

Google "National Review, early voting" and read any of the articles that come up.

Will do. Thanks!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

An Noticeable Trend in Comparing 2012 to 2016 Cumulative NC Absentee Voting by Old North State Politics

Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP by 538, Nate Silver

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Now Florida=in TRUMP's pocket.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26
2012: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.5%(240K) | REP 39.2%(216K)    D +4.3%

Very good for TRUMP.

DAY 2 in-person Total: 552k  10/26/2016 5:38AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

I hope you get paid in dollars and not rubles.

At least he has a job.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

This seems to reinforce the idea that many people who choose Johnson in a poll do so simply because they don't like either Clinton or Trump, and Johnson is an offered alternative. 

That's not an idea, that's what people actually said to pollsters. The same applies to undecided voters, they dislike both/all candidates.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Re: 538, not saying anything we don't already know. Compare vs previous years early voting not the final vote. https://twitter.com/electproject/status/791671202368544768

The key points of 538 article were according to me:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It means also that you can not really compare it to 2012, i.e. 2016 EV is not representative of 2012.

And

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, that simple. Polls are better.

Uppshot model based on EV and polls is probably an exception and worth to take attention on.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

BTW, is there usually any/big difference in AV/EV between rural compared and non-rural areas? If not, poor Trump