The absentee/early vote thread

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Woof. Those numbers are brutal. Surely this would be a disaster downballot if it continues?

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That's great news to start the day. VA is a lock.

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It's very soothing to see the positivity of the polling (generally) playing out in early voting so far. Thanks to everyone who has been gathering and translating the data, this part certainly isn't my strong suit.

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only question reamining would be if...as sean trende says 10 times each day....there are more dem voters this time or they are just sooo motivated that they are "cannibalizing" their election day vote.

Fortunately, even if it is just "cannibalizing" the election day vote, it is ensuring that the people who might be turned away from hours-long lines get multiple chances, and I'm guessing a lot of the unable-to-vote demographic in states like Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina are Democrats.

I also think Mook's strategy is to use early voting as a way to reach soft Hillary supporters. The committed one's will vote no matter what, but team HRC seems to be making a concerted effort to get the soft supporters over to early vote to ensure they are captured.

Also catches them while the polls are definitely in your favor. Smart.

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That's awesome from NV!

As for OH, I thought the news so far had been pretty sour. Again, I'm terrible at deciphering early voting trends etc. Is there anything to what Bo just posted?

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A graph of the numbers on white voters' early voting in NC, per Michael Bitzer:

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Crossed the 5 million votes cast mark!

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/790286401598205952

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Just voted on campus at UT-Austin! My anecdote is particularly useless since I can't compare it to a previous prez election here, but I think it looked decently, if not overwhelmingly, busy. For 8:30 am on day one, I would guess 25 other people were voting there at the same time as me, and the stream was staying steady.

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https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577926819442688

In first four hours of early voting in bellwether Hillsborough County, FL, Dems have a 49-35% lead in voters.  #enthusiasmgap

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790577513235881984

In conservative Duval County, FL, the GOP was +3,000 in VBM ballots over two weeks of voting.  In 4 hours of Early Vote, Dems are up 500.

If Duval is close the race is over in Florida and thus the nation.

True, but Duval seems particularly ripe for being misleading. Dems have the reg advantage there by 4 points, yet lost in 2012 by 13 points. They'd need to have a considerable voting edge/swing of indies to actually make it competitive, I think.

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Some info on GA:




"@ElectProject
I suspect that weekend county reports incomplete. That said, out of the 39K weekend votes, 39% from African-Americans."

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/790593946611318784

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32,732 showed up to vote on day one in Travis County (Austin) today. In 2012, it was 16,378, meaning that day one Travis County early voting is up 100%.


Today's #s: https://twitter.com/TXCapTonight/status/790735127194308608
2012's: http://www.austinchronicle.com/daily/news/2012-10-23/early-voting-results-day-one/

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"@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago

Dems won early voting for third straight day in swing county Washoe by substantial margin."



https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790747032809943041

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Still curious about Travis

Here ya are:

32,732 showed up to vote on day one in Travis County (Austin) today. In 2012, it was 16,378, meaning that day one Travis County early voting is up 100%.


Today's #s: https://twitter.com/TXCapTonight/status/790735127194308608
2012's: http://www.austinchronicle.com/daily/news/2012-10-23/early-voting-results-day-one/

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And

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https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/790758094598967296

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Yes, first time voters regardless if they registered D or R 20 or more years ago is a strong PLUS for Trump. These people who didn't turn out for Obama are def. the ones who are interested in voting for the first time ever for Hillary. I'll say it again regardless of which party they registered with 20+ years ago, if first time voters is up, that is a good thing for Trump, just as we saw during the primaries.

Yes, except these are first time voters, meaning they're registering as a Democrat or a Republican this year for the first time and voting. Clear Clinton advantage.

Oh well, if its new voters just eligible to vote that are being considered new voters than yes without question HUGE advantage Clinton, elections over.

If its eligible voters for over 20+ years that are voting for the first time but check if they are a D or R when they vote i still say advantage Trump. Trump isn't a "republican" in most peoples eyes, hes more of an independent that the left calls crazy and the people who like him call the change needed desperately in Washington.

He's absolutely viewed as a Republican and, moreover, Independents view him as a bad one.

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Schale thrice on the Florida numbers today:

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Schale really starting to ring the bell of "it's over in FL".

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in normal elections i would now be overjoyed.

in this election i am scared of registered usually non-voting dems...<.<

Yep. I do not see anything that would make me sleep well.

Other than the fact that almost everyone has said Florida is essentially won for Clinton.

And, I'll waste my breath to say that, if she wins FL, it requires the superhuman bending of the mind to see how she loses the GE.

Clinton wins this scenario 270-268, for God's sake:

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For some basic Arizona information, go to about 3:25 on this Youtube video from 2012. You see the majority of the mail ballots counted. Romney led by a 56-42 margin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUOfdyg_hz8

Wow, that plus what Monmouth posted has me feeling somewhat bullish on Clinton's odds in AZ right now.

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I feel like the general consensus is that Clinton is now slightly favored in Arizona anyway, yes?

I'm not sure. As I say, certainly these early voting numbers are quite encouraging and the polling has been decently so, but only Sabato and 538 of the 9 projectors in the NYT Upshot collection have it lean D.

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Not sick of Schalian input on FL yet? Good!

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Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton leads 59-36 in the North Carolina early vote with more than 800k votes cast. We'll be tracking it daily

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

Nice!

Yeah, wow. That's a pretty strong statement out of one of the places where it's been a tad less clear re: Clinton's standing.

Their current projection for the final result in NC, for those that don't click through, is 49-43 Clinton.

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So are the partisan numbers in Florida good or bad for the Dems? The last few posts have confused me.

Good news for dems

Yeah, FL is one that really can't be read any other way than positive for the Dems so far.

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My sources are telling me that amongst those who bought their Halloween masks early, Trump is trailing hard; some wonder if this has to do with less Halloween shops being open this year in rural white communities, though. Stay tuned to Bill Mitchell for the hottest news from the spooooky battleground.

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Then you should show some facts instead of mumbling

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
"Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates"

This isn't like other years when you could just use Rep and Dem registration ID to safely infer voting leads-- a significant number of registered Republicans in both NC and Florida will be voting for Clinton, as indicated by the Upshot's model extrapolating from their polling.

You're going to come out very disappointed with the conversation you just started.

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What still gets me is that Clinton leads in the polling crosstabs of people who have already voted by a much larger amount than party ID would indicate. This didn't happen in either of Obama's wins where the early vote subsamples largely mirrored party ID and demographic voting rates

Didn't happen in the final result in the state, or didn't happen in the polls of early voters?