The absentee/early vote thread

[ApatheticAustrian]

democrats are weakened in the rust belt...and soaring at the coast states.

[ApatheticAustrian]

since hillary never really needed OH but would take it anway .....liberals can take this relaxed.

florida and NC are muuuuch more important.

[ApatheticAustrian]

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

you are absolutely right but "a little better" seems to understate it.

[ApatheticAustrian]

For example in FL, which already has 3 million absentee requests Republicans actually are ahead by a few points.

as far as i know republicans are down hard from 2012 in FL und NC and dems are again increasing their numbers in registration spikes in the final week.

[ApatheticAustrian]

woah

surprising.

[ApatheticAustrian]

don't want to extrapolate such a small sample but ...the black marge in 08/12 was always seen like an outlier afaik and afro-americans "usually" have voted at lower numbers than non-hispanic whites......

i know that a whole lot of black americans live in georgia but...generally speaking....would be unrealistic if afro-americans are less motivated than non-hispanic white americans this time and still dominate early voting..wouldn't it?

[ApatheticAustrian]

that early republican edge in PA is "normal" i guess?

[ApatheticAustrian]

if an edge of about 70k ballots is enough for a 6 point win......a really good GOTV-effort should make a smaller edge also viable.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in the surface it looks like dems are up everwhere besides OH/IA.

[ApatheticAustrian]

since there hasn't been a surge of non-registered hispanics vote this year, i guess this is more about registered republican latinos either switching registration.

[ApatheticAustrian]

great results, regarding the bigger problems with voting this time.

enthusiasm seems to be up,

[ApatheticAustrian]

is there any practical reason for the nevada dent?

[ApatheticAustrian]

in fact, without the strong increase of postal ballots, the right-wing candidate would have won.

usually...in austria...some sub-groups (student's/educated persons/the elderly) of the electorate vote much more often with postal ballots than other groups = the increase of postal ballots has been a sign that the green candidate would do better with those voters than usual.

[ApatheticAustrian]

But you cannot argue that the increase in postal ballots was responsible for the left-wing candidate's win. This argument is as bad as the FPÖ's (= far-right wingers) wishes that abolishing the postal vote would help them electorally ... => if the postal vote is abolished, postal-voting people would simply go back to precinct voting instead (and don't tell me they wouldn't, because they have no time on a Sunday).

2 things....

1) if you would forbid some ways of voting you would for sure disenfranchise some voters.

2) more important:

the green candidate won the first runoff election cause he did better with those voting blocs who vote through postal ballots than other green/left-wing-candidates.

in general early voting in the US seems to be a tool with big-D democratic advantage - but i would guess that the college-educated and elderly also voted before in a higher margin before election day.

white, angry men, the key target group of mister trump, internationally prefers to vote in-person on election day.

[ApatheticAustrian]

just read on wikipedia (yeah, yeah, i know) that obama has had a lead of about 100k votes before election day 2012 in florida....guess regarding how close 2012 has been in florida, the dems need a similar margin again.

[ApatheticAustrian]

virginia was never competetive this cycle.

but it points out that some polls are obviously correct.

[ApatheticAustrian]

only question reamining would be if...as sean trende says 10 times each day....there are more dem voters this time or they are just sooo motivated that they are "cannibalizing" their election day vote.

[ApatheticAustrian]

it is going to be interesting to see if the increased number of registered republicans (mostly due to "dead" or switched voters, the dems have once again registered more new voters than the republicans), are going to make a difference in PA/FL...or if those voters have been voting republican all along.

[ApatheticAustrian]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789901835066716160



Guilford: Had 21,560 in-person votes on first two days of early voting in 2012; 3,295 in 2016 (-85%). Reduced polling places from 16 to 1

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789902702889140224

[ApatheticAustrian]

before anyone notices it....dspNY is right but the first pic misstated the numbers of polling places. i updated the pic.

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is simple mind-boggling for an european.

ofc we have some kind of ID...all of us are showing either their identity card or driver's license....and the people at each voting station know who is supposed to vote there...and there is a polling place at each corner, 3 of them a mile in each direction from my house......

[ApatheticAustrian]

the comparison is a little bit off since early voting gets easier and more popular each cycle but if the parameters stay the same......this is going to bit hurtful.

[ApatheticAustrian]

can't be said right now, too much change since 2012, many polling stations not opened.

but OH/IA look better for the GOP.

[ApatheticAustrian]

a general problem for trump could be that his base (white, uneducated men) usually doesn't vote very often (especially if compared to educated females) and are more likely to believe in rigging, which also drives down turnout.

[ApatheticAustrian]

skill proposes, people who ideologically are against the concept of early voting wouldn't vote early.

i am sceptical.