The absentee/early vote thread

[BoAtlantis]

To counter what is going to be a very heavy Democratic early vote, the Repubs have to be leading the Florida VBM by a minimum of 250K to have a chance. Today the VBM narrowed to a 110K advantage for the GOP. Additionally, a lot of Florida independents are Hispanic so the Indy vote is pretty close to even there

From several days ago,

"Statewide, Republicans are ahead in ballot requests — 43 percent to 38 percent.
That's a much narrower gap than in 2008, the most recent in which comparable data was available. At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent, according to data analyzed for the AP by Catalist, a Democratic firm that helped run data operations for President Obama's 2008 race. Obama won the state by 2.8 percentage points."


Trump has to be significantly ahead in ballot request. McCain lost FL by 2.8% despite being up 51-32% at a certain point.

[BoAtlantis]

An early advantage for Clinton in Ohio:

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In 2012, Cuyahoga County accounted for 11.5% of the vote in Ohio. 17% of the absentee ballots are from Cuyahoga

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/06/clinton-campaign-claims-three-battleground-states-could-be-locked-through-early-voting/

Encouraging news.

She badly needs max turnout from Cuyahoga to carry Ohio.

[BoAtlantis]

Added an update from Wisconsin, which puts the number of people who have voted over a quarter million: 268,623
4 retweets 3 likes
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 1h1 hour ago

How much of that is from Dane/MKE?

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

http://www.gab.wi.gov/node/4200

DANE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 17761
Absentee Ballots Returned 9719

MKE stands for Milwaukee I assume?

MILWAUKEE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 18721
Absentee Ballots Returned 6883

[BoAtlantis]

Added an update from Wisconsin, which puts the number of people who have voted over a quarter million: 268,623
4 retweets 3 likes
Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject 1h1 hour ago

How much of that is from Dane/MKE?

http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

http://www.gab.wi.gov/node/4200

DANE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 17761
Absentee Ballots Returned 9719

MKE stands for Milwaukee I assume?

MILWAUKEE COUNTY

Absentee Ballots Sent 18721
Absentee Ballots Returned 6883

Yes, and how does that compare to previous years (if the data is available)?

I wasn't able to find anything. I'll post it if there is anything useful.

[BoAtlantis]

An early advantage for Clinton in Ohio:

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In 2012, Cuyahoga County accounted for 11.5% of the vote in Ohio. 17% of the absentee ballots are from Cuyahoga

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/10/06/clinton-campaign-claims-three-battleground-states-could-be-locked-through-early-voting/

Encouraging news.

She badly needs max turnout from Cuyahoga to carry Ohio.

Or the Democrats may just be cannibalizing their Election Day vote. That's what happened in Georgia in 2014: based on early vote totals, it appeared that the electorate was going to be 6 points blacker than in 2010 and with much higher turnout. Instead, turnout in 2014 was slightly lower than in 2010; you just had a lot more people show up during early voting overall, and disproportionately more Democrats on top of that. Democrats have increasingly becoming good at mastering early voting. It's part of the reason that the GOP has recently developed a hate-boner for it.

Very true, I think it's a mistake to put too much weight in early indications. Early voting boosts turnout overall according to research so in theory, it does benefit Democrats.

One can argue that Democrats lost badly in 2014 despite the early voting and would have lost even bigger without it.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article106618097.html

Wisconsin: Numbers compiled by the state Elections Commission show that as of Friday, 70,740 absentee ballots have been returned statewide. Of those, 22,511 were from either Milwaukee or Dane counties, or about 31 percent of the total cast statewide. By comparison, in the heavily Republican suburban Milwaukee counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington, only 6,420 early votes have been cast.

Are there comparable 2008 or 2012 data for ballots cast as of this point for WI?

[BoAtlantis]

‏@LatinoDecisions
Stunning partisan reversal among Cuban Americans in Hialeah, FL:
Voter reg thru 2012: +13 Rep
Voter reg in 2016: +12 Dem
via @electionsmith



Seems like Cubans are turning against him in FL.

[BoAtlantis]

New Democrats registration outnumber Republicans registration in most age category in NC.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/786258607616561152
This doesn't seem good for Clinton.

Statewide, OH absentee ballot requests are down 2.6% from 2012.

In Democratic strongholds:
Cuyahoga -16.1%
Franklin -16.3%
Hamilton -3.1%

As one of the tweet commenters noted, this could be due to lack of interest from Republican moderates who are concentrated in Dem strongholds...

It's not just moderates, Republican enthusiasm is just about non-existent in Franklin County atm.

If moderate Republicans are the reason, shouldn't Hamilton see a bigger drop-off than 3%? At the same time, I can't deduce at this point whether this is the first bad sign for Hillary in OH. Absentee is dominated by Republicans in most states.

[BoAtlantis]

https://www.wired.com/2016/10/hashtag-can-tell-us-early-voting-ohio/

I hate unscientific data much as anyone but here it is.


"But it’s hard to ignore the surprising enthusiasm gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the hashtag #OHVotesEarly, which started trending on Twitter this morning as early voting kicked off in Ohio. Throughout the election cycle, Clinton supporters have often been out-shouted by Trump’s and Bernie Sanders’ more vocal voter bases. Today, however, the Ohio hashtag was brimming with photos of voters who had already cast votes for Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, many of the tweets that included references to Trump were about how the hashtag is—you guessed it—rigged.

But according to Twitter’s data, the enthusiasm gap is real. The social media site tells WIRED that of the tweets sent using the hashtag #OHVotesEarly over the last 24 hours, 75 percent included mentions of Clinton, while just 25 mentioned Trump. “It’s an inexact science,” says Twitter spokesman Nick Pacilio, but it’s a staggering disparity, nonetheless.

[BoAtlantis]

https://www.wired.com/2016/10/hashtag-can-tell-us-early-voting-ohio/

I hate unscientific data much as anyone but here it is.


"But it’s hard to ignore the surprising enthusiasm gap between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the hashtag #OHVotesEarly, which started trending on Twitter this morning as early voting kicked off in Ohio. Throughout the election cycle, Clinton supporters have often been out-shouted by Trump’s and Bernie Sanders’ more vocal voter bases. Today, however, the Ohio hashtag was brimming with photos of voters who had already cast votes for Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, many of the tweets that included references to Trump were about how the hashtag is—you guessed it—rigged.

But according to Twitter’s data, the enthusiasm gap is real. The social media site tells WIRED that of the tweets sent using the hashtag #OHVotesEarly over the last 24 hours, 75 percent included mentions of Clinton, while just 25 mentioned Trump. “It’s an inexact science,” says Twitter spokesman Nick Pacilio, but it’s a staggering disparity, nonetheless.

it's particularly inaccurate as hashtag anything skews heavily towards younger voters. how many people over 55 have a twitter account? over 65?

I agree that it's really skewed but it's hard to gauge the magnitude of it because Twitter doesn't collect age as far as I know. Early voting is dominated by Democrats in most states so while it likely isn't 75-25 in favor of Hillary, it's reasonable to believe she's definitely received much higher than Trump.

[BoAtlantis]

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

you are absolutely right but "a little better" seems to understate it.

Why ? There isn't even a coherent trend right now that favours the Democrats.

For example in FL, which already has 3 million absentee requests Republicans actually are ahead by a few points.

Iowa and Ohio are the only states where the early trend doesn't look good. Democrats registration is outpacing Republicans' in most swing states.

Absentee heavily skews older people. In 2008, FL Republicans had the advantage 51-32% in absentee requests (and Obama still won FL by almost 3%). It's too early to tell but to say Democrats don't have a favorable trend right now is being far too pessimistic.

[BoAtlantis]

Iowa's early vote is going much better for the Republicans. They have cut the Democratic edge in ballot requests to 28K

DEM: 150,450
GOP: 122,583
IND: 69,737
Other: 864

Democrats have turned their ballots in at a higher rate. These numbers ARE combined within the total ballot requests, IIRC.

DEM: 78,271
GOP: 43,165
IND: 27,680
Other: 353

If there is any state in which early indicator is very telling, it's Iowa. Democrats do most of the work through ballot requests and if they can't get an edge here, they'll likely lose here.

RCP average of +3.7 may be very accurate.

[BoAtlantis]

If there is any state in which early indicator is very telling, it's Iowa. Democrats do most of the work through ballot requests and if they can't get an edge here, they'll likely lose here.

RCP average of +3.7 may be very accurate.

True. With Branstad, Grassley, and Ernst lining up the R machine solidly behind Trump, this is one state where we'll see what 2016 might have looked like if the R candidate had an actual get-out-the-vote effort of his own.

I don't know how much endorsements boost the margins. But it could partially explain why Ohio seems to give a better chance for Hillary than Iowa, with Kasich's refusal to endorse Trump.

[BoAtlantis]

Florida absentee status in 2016 to a comparable point in time in 2012

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/787008832912392192
http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

Early voting up 22% in Virginia from 2012 levels.

Northern Virginia (59%)
Southwest Virginia (26%)
Valley of Virginia (14%)
Capital Region (7%)
Southside Virginia (6%)
Northern Neck / Middle Peninsula (5%)
Piedmont (5%)
Hampton Roads (-14%)

To follow up with an update,

http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting

Northern Virginia 55.60%
Southwest Virginia 22.96%
Capital Region 14.94%
Northern Neck / Middle Peninsula 12.84%
Southside Virginia 9.69%
Valley of Virginia 4.60%
Piedmont -0.23%
Hampton Roads -8.17%
 
2012
60,612
 
2016
74,461
 
Change
22.85%

[BoAtlantis]

Note: Nevada early voting begins on 10/22/16. I am pretty sure what they mean by "early voting" is early votes + absentee ballots. So in Nevada's case, the Republicans' lead may be because early voting hasn't started yet.

[BoAtlantis]

I don't know the accuracy of this blog so take it with a grain of salt. It appears to be from a conservative blogger in 2012.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HfIOpQQkNXuoBe1eW0fwt4NxMvH523jkW85npX02zHA/edit#gid=0

http://thirdbasepolitics.blogspot.com/2012/09/absentee-ballot-data-not-looking-good.html

County     Total AB Requests     D           R              D            R         Difference
Total     2008   1,386,683    477,388  260,416    34.43%  18.78%     15.65%
            2012   1,372,336    390,691  298,403    28.47%  21.74%      6.72%

It appears to me that the trend is that Democrats are requesting fewer and fewer AB requests every year. So it would make sense to me that with Ohio being a nail-biter right now, AB requests are down compared to 2012. (Obama won OH by 3% in 2012)

So to make up for their AB requests decline, they have to substantially outperform Republicans on early voting in order to hold them off from Republicans' election day comeback.

[BoAtlantis]

Early vote numbers are not terribly significant until about a week or two before election day.

Of course, but since it began, it's worth observing some trends

[BoAtlantis]

that early republican edge in PA is "normal" i guess?

I believe PA is excuse-required absentee ballots only so if I had to guess, it probably skews elderly.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/788906863140016128?lang=en

"Continued weakness for OH Dem ballot requests as of 10/18
Cuyahoga -22.3% from 2012
Franklin - 12.7%
47 other counties +0.4%"

Bad news for Hillary in OH

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/788906863140016128?lang=en

"Continued weakness for OH Dem ballot requests as of 10/18
Cuyahoga -22.3% from 2012
Franklin - 12.7%
47 other counties +0.4%"

Bad news for Hillary in OH

Franklin (Columbus) improving quite a bit but Cuyahoga (Cleveland) is underperforming a lot

Yea it's sad. I gave up on OH.

[BoAtlantis]

http://plunderbund.com/2016/10/20/hillarys-vp-sen-tim-kaine-tells-ohioans-2016-election-in-the-palm-of-their-hands/

“Voter turnout in Franklin County, home to state capital Columbus, is robust with more than 9,300 votes cast in person in the first four days, a 80 percent boost over the same period in 2012. Democrats have invested heavily in vote by mail efforts, and that appears to be paying off. The five Ohio counties with the largest vote by mail requests so far are Cuyahoga [home to Cleveland], Franklin, Hamilton [home to Cincinnati], Montgomery [home to Dayton] and Summit. Together they account for more than 40 percent of current ballot requests across the entire state. These five counties are likely to go for Hillary Clinton by similar or larger margins than President Obama’s 2012 results.”

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.wpr.org/early-voting-strong-wisconsins-most-democratic-counties

MADISON — About 30 percent of all absentee ballots cast in Wisconsin so far have come from the state’s most heavily Democratic counties.

The latest data posted on the Wisconsin Elections Commission website shows ballots cast in Milwaukee and Dane counties are far outpacing those that have come from the conservative suburban counties of Washington, Waukesha and Ozaukee.

As of Wednesday, there were just over 55,000 ballots returned in Dane and Milwaukee counties compared with about 21,700 in the co-called WOW counties. About 183,700 were cast statewide.

[BoAtlantis]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/21/politics/early-voting-hillary-clinton-battleground-states/

Utah

Perhaps most surprisingly, Democrats improved their position in conservative and Mormon-heavy Utah, where recent polls have shown a tight race. At this point in 2012, Republicans led Democrats in early voting by more than 22,000 voters. But so far this year, the GOP advantage is only 3,509

Ohio and Iowa

The best news Trump is in Iowa. So far, 38,280 more Democrats than Republicans have voted. It's a narrower advantage than 2012, when Democrats outpaced GOP voters by 53,719 at this point.
The numbers are also significantly down in Ohio, where only 179,162 people have cast ballots, a 66% drop from this point in 2012. Democrats have a slight lead in the early balloting, but their lead is smaller than in 2012, and overall Democratic turnout dropped at a higher rate than it did for Republicans.

Virginia and Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, the number of early voters to date more than tripled, jumping from 46,389 to 142,190. In-person early voting started in late October four years ago. But after a federal court struck down Wisconsin's strict voting laws, early voting began several weeks earlier in the Badger State this year.
Virginia saw a smaller increase of 18,079 voters, compared to 2012. The state doesn't allow in-person early voting, but residents can still vote early by providing an excuse and receiving an absentee ballot.

Georgia

And in Republican-leaning Georgia, early voting is up by about 25% this year compared to 2012. That was clear Wednesday in Lawrenceville, where about 200 people lined up to vote in the county's only early voting location. Waiting times were two hours, officials said, and dragged longer in the afternoon.