The absentee/early vote thread

[Tender Branson]

With NC starting their absentee voting today, it's about time for a thread.

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[Tender Branson]

Of the 28,187 NC ballots sent as of today:

81.6% White 11.2% Black 1.3% Asian 0.2% Native American

37.5% Dem 34.7% Rep 27.6% Unaffiliated 0.3% Lib

[Tender Branson]

I don't know what early voting vs. election day voting looked like in 2012, but the margin between Democrat and Republican registration is a lot narrower than it was in 2012 (37-35 vs. 39-33).

The current voter registration in NC is 40% D, 30% R, 30% Others.

6.7 million registered voters altogether.

[Tender Branson]

Democratic ballot requests are way up compared to 2012 in NC.

He also tweets:

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So, not even 2% of the expected early vote has even requested ballots ... (or 1% of the expected overall vote).

[Tender Branson]

Guys, while these updates are interesting they are virtually meaningless at this point.

Only 4.000 ballots have been returned in NC so far, out of an expected total vote of 4.5 million

That's not even 1/1000 votes ...

[Tender Branson]

Guys, while these updates are interesting they are virtually meaningless at this point.

Only 4.000 ballots have been returned in NC so far, out of an expected total vote of 4.5 million

That's not even 1/1000 votes ...

Yeah, but in the sense these results are like one huge poll (though obviously with some differences). Clinton outperforming Obama so much in a state that Obama lost so narrowly is very good news indeed

No, this is not like a poll at all. Because it's non-representative. That's like arguing Romney wins VA, just because he's ahead 60-40 with 1% of the precincts reporting ... (not to mention this is only 0.07% of precincts "reporting" for NC).

[Tender Branson]

Guys, while these updates are interesting they are virtually meaningless at this point.

Only 4.000 ballots have been returned in NC so far, out of an expected total vote of 4.5 million

That's not even 1/1000 votes ...

Yeah, but in the sense these results are like one huge poll (though obviously with some differences). Clinton outperforming Obama so much in a state that Obama lost so narrowly is very good news indeed

No, this is not like a poll at all. Because it's non-representative. That's like arguing Romney wins VA, just because he's ahead 60-40 with 1% of the precincts reporting ... (not to mention this is only 0.07% of precincts "reporting" for NC).

I never claimed it was representative... I pointed out that the trend line seems to favor Clinton.

We can only see if this is true if the "trend" holds up if for example 2 million absentee/early votes are in ... but not just 4.000.

[Tender Branson]

In Iowa, Dems typically have a huge early advantage in requested ballots - but that doesn't mean anything for the election day result, or the total early/absentee vote (because the margin narrows the closer you get to election day):

So far, about 91.000 ballots were requested, with a 56% D 21% R split.

During roughly the same time in 2014, about 147.000 ballots were requested, with a 53% D 27% R split.

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[Tender Branson]

FL already has over 2 million ballots requested, which split 43% R and 37% D (see post from TN volunteer slightly above).

In Mid-October 2014, there were also more than 2 million ballots requested in FL, and the split was 42% R, 39% D ...

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-picking-up-s_b_5973716.html

[Tender Branson]

Only 50 votes have been returned so far in FL ... lol

Could you also do a map of requests ?

Because FL has over 2 million requests already, with Republicans leading 43%-37%.

[Tender Branson]

So, 0.3% of the expected votes have already been cast.

Yay !

[Tender Branson]

Guys, please stop the hype !

Only 0.6% of the vote is in so far.

And only 140K people have even requested ballots in NC, out of an expected vote of 4.5 million.

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

This is so meaningless right now.

[Tender Branson]

Guys, please stop the hype !

Only 0.6% of the vote is in so far.

And only 140K people have even requested ballots in NC, out of an expected vote of 4.5 million.

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

This is so meaningless right now.

Tender, when you are doing half of what a 2 point win was in 2012, with demographic numbers on,y worse against you, it points to a fatal defect in your ground work.  If Trump can't get them to request a damn ballot, how in gods name will he get them to the polls?

Because it's apples and oranges. In the Austrian presidential election, far-right winger Hofer won the election day vote 52-48 (which was 85% of the total vote), but left-winger Van der Bellen won the postal vote (15% of the vote) by 65-35, giving him the small win.

Just because the Dems do well with a handful of requested postal ballots, it doesn't mean this will be an indicator for a good election outcome for them ...

If the trend continues with 70-80% of the postal vote in, that's a different thing. But hyping around with 1% of postal ballots cast is ridiculous.

[Tender Branson]

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

you are absolutely right but "a little better" seems to understate it.

Why ? There isn't even a coherent trend right now that favours the Democrats.

For example in FL, which already has 3 million absentee requests Republicans actually are ahead by a few points.

[Tender Branson]

Update:

Total number of ballots cast in all reporting jurisdictions: 1,170,904 and 2.5% of 2012 total early vote!

But that is still less than 1% of the expected total vote (120-140 million).

The early vote analysis won't get meaningful until about 1 week before the election ...

[Tender Branson]

While 2.9 million requests and votes seem to be a lot, it's still only just 1/3rd of the expected vote of 9 million in FL.

Not telling us a lot yet ... even if let's say Democrats are leading by 2 among requested ballots or Republicans, we still don't know how the Independents are voting.

[Tender Branson]

I just mailed my absentee ballot this morning

I will request mine too soon and mail it back in late November.

[Tender Branson]

CO will start mailing ballots to all 3 Mio. RV today.

New voters will have the possibility of same-day registration on Nov. 8

This should give us a good look at turnout even before election day ...

[Tender Branson]

Interesting:

CO has 3.2 million active registered voters (all of which will be mailed a ballot in the next days).

But there are also 0.7 million inactive registered voters (and they won't be mailed a ballot).

An inactive registered voter is someone who got sent a letter by the state to send it back for confirmation that the address is still occupied, but who failed to return that letter. Most are probably students or people who moved away ...

Anyway, I guess the first ballots are returned by Thursday and we should get some updates on returned ballots by the weekend.

[Tender Branson]

Just a note:

In the Austrian Presidential runoff, a record number of postal ballots was requested (ca. 900.000) and the left-wing candidate won 2/3 of them (incl. my vote).

Yet on election day, the far-right populist candidate won the precinct vote by 52-48 (precinct votes were 85% of the total vote, postal votes were around 15%).

Overall, the result was about 50-50 in the end.

So, despite Dems doing well with the early vote it means nothing about how the overall vote will end up, as Trump's voters are the ones who will most likely vote strongly on election day - rather than early by postal ballot.

[Tender Branson]

Just a note:

In the Austrian Presidential runoff, a record number of postal ballots was requested (ca. 900.000) and the left-wing candidate won 2/3 of them (incl. my vote).

Yet on election day, the far-right populist candidate won the precinct vote by 52-48 (precinct votes were 85% of the total vote, postal votes were around 15%).

Overall, the result was about 50-50 in the end.

So, despite Dems doing well with the early vote it means nothing about how the overall vote will end up, as Trump's voters are the ones who will most likely vote strongly on election day - rather than early by postal ballot.

America is not Austria.

True, but it doesn't help to interpret a lot into these tiny good early voting numbers for the Dems, when Trump voters could turn out heavily on election day. Because the early vote and election day vote could be apples and oranges.

On the other hand, if all vote-by-mail states (such as CO) show a significant Democratic advantage a day before election day (when 95% of CO ballots have been mailed back already), then there's reason to believe Trump will be heavily defeated (yet we still don't know how Indys voted) ...

[Tender Branson]

in fact, without the strong increase of postal ballots, the right-wing candidate would have won.

usually...in austria...some sub-groups (student's/educated persons/the elderly) of the electorate vote much more often with postal ballots than other groups = the increase of postal ballots has been a sign that the green candidate would do better with those voters than usual.

But you cannot argue that the increase in postal ballots was responsible for the left-wing candidate's win. This argument is as bad as the FPÖ's (= far-right wingers) wishes that abolishing the postal vote would help them electorally ... => if the postal vote is abolished, postal-voting people would simply go back to precinct voting instead (and don't tell me they wouldn't, because they have no time on a Sunday).

[Tender Branson]

For Colorado, we can't really compare to 2012. We can however, compare it to 2014 (not the best but better than nothing.)

16 days to Election Day 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  48,030 (24,468)
Republicans  36,790 (36,830)
Independent 27,435 (17,191)

TOTAL 113,932 (79,355)

Democrats have increased by about 100%, Independents by 60% and Republicans by 0%

Total turnout up 44%

That's only 4% of the expected vote in CO though.

Let's wait until Nov. 7 when 90% of the ballots are in (there are also some election day voters).

[Tender Branson]

It seems the early vote in NC, FL and NV is slowly trending the way of Trump/Republicans.

And in CO (where Dems are currently way ahead, but virtually nothing is in yet) the email scandal comes at the worst possible time for Hillary because most voters will fill out their ballot this weekend and over the next week with peak mail returns in about 1 week ... and the email stuff will dominate the whole next week.

[Tender Branson]

It seems the early vote in NC, FL and NV is slowly trending the way of Trump/Republicans.

And in CO (where Dems are currently way ahead, but virtually nothing is in yet) the email scandal comes at the worst possible time for Hillary because most voters will fill out their ballot this weekend and over the next week with peak mail returns in about 1 week ... and the email stuff will dominate the whole next week.

CO is interesting.

at the beginning DEM bragged D+10% BLAH BLAH BLAH     

Now it is D+3.9%
(I know it was slightlly +R in 2012)

For a Trump win, CO will likely need to be at least R+5 by Nov. 7 when about 90% of ballots are returned.

Maybe R+2 or R+3 if the Indys are going strongly for the Republicans.

But as long as Dems are ahead with the returned ballots, it's about 99% likely that Hillary will win there.