The absentee/early vote thread

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Very fishy

Of course it is.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yes, very early, but still encouraging about the strength of the Dem ground game.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

https://twitter.com/IAStartingLine/status/778326496599429120

Follow IAStartingLine for good analysis in Iowa. Dems are 45% compared to 2012, GOP at 102%. BUT, Dems have delayed sending ballots since their studies show sending it too early confuses people... It could also show lack of enthusiasm.

Party         Today           Then       % Diff

Democrat    43,443    97,001    45%
Republican 15,272    14,909    102%
No Party    16,180    30,083    54%
Other         178          128       139%

He says the ballots have already been sent out for local candidates and they are seeing margins that parallel 2012. It's 99% due to the Clinton campaign waiting a week or two to get them sent. Notice the GOP number is hardly different at this stage. That's the number you have to watch for increased turnout on the GOP side

I've done some reading and yes, Clinton is delaying the absentee campaign, while the GOP is keeping the same schedule, which does explain why the GOP is roughly on par with 2012 and the Dems are behind.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

That... doesn't make sense.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Didn't we learn in 2014 that using early/absentee data to extraploate things can put egg on your face?

People thought Hagan was going to coast to victory based just on favorable absentee data out of NC in 2014.

Definitely true, but there isnt harm in comparing and noticing the differences compared to 2012

Hagan was hurt by the collapse in election-day turnout.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Lol, you're a delight.

Noting that most ballot requests from the last 24 hours wouldn't have been processed yet and don't pretend that you have the vaguest idea what an orgasm is.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

K gurl. Whatever helps you sleep in your mother's basement.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Not looking good for Trump. And what's up with Iowa? I thought it was Lean R or something?

Woah... did the IA ground-game suddenly just wake up?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How is Florida comparing to 2012?

The Ds are outperforming 2012 by a significant degree. Kind of interesting what happens when you're investing in GOTV versus over-charging on office rent and fueling up a decrepit plane.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How is Florida comparing to 2012?

The Ds are outperforming 2012 by a significant degree. Kind of interesting what happens when you're investing in GOTV versus over-charging on office rent and fueling up a decrepit plane.

Aren't they underperforming?

Not in FL, the GOP had a much larger lead in % terms.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's very dangerous reading too much into these early numbers.

I agree - but I think a broad conclusion you could look to is that the ground-games of the campaigns are being reflected in these early numbers.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Question: What states in early voting/absentee is Trump doing well in (if any) or holding his own against Clinton? This is my 2nd election voting so knew to all these stats.

So far, based on past results, Iowa

But, this does need to be put in context.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Again... the Dems are still lagging timeline-wise. If we're still in this place in 10 days, then I'll be concerned.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Looks like IA is starting to slowly correct itself.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

yeah... there's not a chance this is a low turnout election.

Yup, I've thought this for a long time.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Iowa and Ohio looking good for Trump... north carolina & florida still republican advantage but not by much. Anyone see any surprises in the data so far that may play well for Trump?

Hopefully none.

However, IA is still looking better for Trump, albeit by a much smaller margin than earlier and OH is still too early to tell, we'll see how it sits this time next week.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I don't understand, Dems 57-32 seems like a big advantage (according to NBC/TargetSmart). How big an advantage do they need in Ohio?

The issue is where the vote is in OH. If it's mostly Cuyahoga, then that's not great. But if it's places like Hamilton and Montgomery, where Obama won off the back of the early vote, then that's great. But again, it's still too early to determine what the OH numbers are saying.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/788906863140016128?lang=en

"Continued weakness for OH Dem ballot requests as of 10/18
Cuyahoga -22.3% from 2012
Franklin - 12.7%
47 other counties +0.4%"

Bad news for Hillary in OH

Franklin (Columbus) improving quite a bit but Cuyahoga (Cleveland) is underperforming a lot

Yea it's sad. I gave up on OH.

Too early to give up.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Politico:  early voting shows upsurge of women

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http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176#ixzz4NmH8mlfp

Lovely.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Just a note:

In the Austrian Presidential runoff, a record number of postal ballots was requested (ca. 900.000) and the left-wing candidate won 2/3 of them (incl. my vote).

Yet on election day, the far-right populist candidate won the precinct vote by 52-48 (precinct votes were 85% of the total vote, postal votes were around 15%).

Overall, the result was about 50-50 in the end.

So, despite Dems doing well with the early vote it means nothing about how the overall vote will end up, as Trump's voters are the ones who will most likely vote strongly on election day - rather than early by postal ballot.

America is not Austria.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

@RalstonReports
30,220 people had voted in Clark by 6 PM today. Was 26,000 on second day in 2012.

Yikes. So, low turnout election eh?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So consensus is NV and VA are looking great for Clinton, IA and OH looking poor and NC and GA are ambiguous?

No. NV/VA looking great, OH it's too early but it's improved, IA is still weaker than it should be and NC and GA are impacted by other factors so cannot easily compare to 2012, although NC is still looking strong.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

For Colorado, we can't really compare to 2012. We can however, compare it to 2014 (not the best but better than nothing.)

16 days to Election Day 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  48,030 (24,468)
Republicans  36,790 (36,830)
Independent 27,435 (17,191)

TOTAL 113,932 (79,355)

Democrats have increased by about 100%, Independents by 60% and Republicans by 0%

Total turnout up 44%

That's only 4% of the expected vote in CO though.

Let's wait until Nov. 7 when 90% of the ballots are in (there are also some election day voters).

I mean why not wait until after the votes have been counted, just to be sure.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Overall story is that the GOP is picking up fast.

The Black vote is now 77% vs the comparable period (75% last update). Whites are now 108% (was 102%).

We'll see how this weekend goes.