The absentee/early vote thread

[Holmes]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Real improvement for Dems in Maine CD-2 compared to past updates, might expect polling improvement there

Referencing chart available here:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/784418320812343299

I think when it's all said and done, CD-2 will be closer than past years but we are going to laugh at ourselves for thinking Trump could win it.

I agree. Obama won it by 8% in 2012. I can see Clinton winning by 4-5%, an increase in support for Republicans but still a comfortable Democratic victory.

[Holmes]

New Democrats registration outnumber Republicans registration in most age category in NC.

Nice. If this holds, we can see North Carolina become Dem > Indie > GOP in registration in the long run. Bad sign for Republicans there.

[Holmes]

After Palm Beach County finally updated its ballot requests, Democrats have narrowed the Republican advantage in statewide VBM ballot requests to approximately 87,600

GOP: 1,130,494 (41.9%)
Dem: 1,042,897 (38.6%)
Ind/NPA: 459,465 (17.0%)
Other: 65,689 (2.4%)

Florida's gone for Trump, especially after yesterday.

[Holmes]

Clark County, NV Voter Registration Update (Deadline is on Tuesday in Nevada):



- County goes over 1 million registered voters
- Republicans are below 30%
- Democrats have a 139,760 lead

Nevada is structurally a Democratic state

Yes but muh Washoe will hand it to Trump.

[Holmes]

Isn't California transitioning into an all-mail system too?

As far as I know, no. Everyone I know here votes by mail but there's still a sizeable amount of voters that go to the polls on election day.

[Holmes]

Not a problem for me - see avatar. California rules!

It's ok.

[Holmes]

Bad first day of early voting for Republicans in Nevada. Nearly two thirds of votes in the state are early votes so Clinton may have the state won before election day if this pattern holds.

[Holmes]

Yeah, Hillary won Nevada. We're seeing it happen over the span of 17 days.

[Holmes]

well, how long does it usually take until the dems lead in florida?

By tomorrow evening when early voting ends for the day.

[Holmes]

A lot of the Republican areas in WI can start voting today finally. Will get in after work to get my Clinton/Feingold/Ryan vote in.

Interesting but understandable split.

[Holmes]

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That's good. It's Monday. More people will vote after work.

[Holmes]

Democrats are banking so many votes already. If Republican turnout is depressed on election day like it is now during early voting, we'll see some crazy results.

[Holmes]

"@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago

Dems won early voting for third straight day in swing county Washoe by substantial margin."



https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790747032809943041

Pretty good. I'd expect more Democrats/Democratic-leaning voters to show up during weekends so it looks good for a Monday.

[Holmes]

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Hot dawg!!!!

My obsession with metro Houston has blinded me to the hidden Democratic base within Dallas County.

If these turnout numbers continue to hold it looks like Asian/Latinos are voting in force, while Black and Anglo voters are running out standard turnout levels.

# BattlegroundTexas is actually starting to look real considering early numbers from Harris and Dallas counties....

Still curious about Travis and Bexar returns on the first day of early voting, and assuming that El Paso will deliver strongly late in the end game.

Bexar's up, but not as much as other metropolitan counties in the state.

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http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Early-voting-Bexar-County-record-10203591.php

And early voting in Travis has doubled per Speed of Sound's post.

[Holmes]

Based on Ralston's Twitter, it seems he's pretty much calling NV for Clinton.

Yup. If things continue the way they are, Trump would need to win election day voting in the state by a 2:1 margin, maybe even more, to narrowly carry the state. Hillary will very likely get a double digit margin in the state.

[Holmes]

Steve Schale really reveals his age when he refers to it as "Dade county".

[Holmes]

Florida still hasn't had one weekend of early voting yet. The numbers will go crazy over the next three days.

[Holmes]

Also this was a three day weekend in Nevada. Anyone who had plans to vote this weekend very likely had already done it on Friday or Saturday, so this Sunday was just like another day. Still higher turnout than 2012, so it's fine.