The absentee/early vote thread

[Landslide Lyndon]

OTOH the Democrats registration edge continues to decline in Nevada.
What's up there?

[Landslide Lyndon]

OTOH the Democrats registration edge continues to decline in Nevada.
What's up there?

It's not as far as I can tell. Democrats increased their edge in Active voters from August to September.

@RalstonReports

Partisan edge by registration:
2008 final: Ds +8.4 percent
2012 final: Ds +7.2 percent
2016 now: Ds +5.6 percent

Trend with a capital T.

[Landslide Lyndon]

New data from Iowa.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump is going to make Fairfax and the other NOVA counties look like Brooklyn.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Kyle Kondik mentioned on twitter that Clinton should make pretty substantial gains at Columbus' suburbs. These people are Kasich Republicans.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Do there numbers include Dead People??

There is never any dead people within the numbers. That is just a dumb republican meme.

You do realize Democrats have been busted for doing this right?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Isn't California transitioning into an all-mail system too?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Not exactly an early voting post but...
As Kyle Kondik mentioned on twitter California Republicans are probably facing a downballot disaster. The presidential election is uncompetitive, the senate election is between two Democrats, throw in Trump's meltdown and that means that Republican voters have almost zero motivation to go to the polls. Bad news for Issa, Knight and perhaps many other congressmen.

[Landslide Lyndon]

daniel a. smith
‏@electionsmith

Absentee ballots cast in 2012 GE at this time, 80% by Whites, 9% by Hispanics, 8% by blacks.
Thru 10/22/2016, the %s are:

76% W
12% H
8% B

[Landslide Lyndon]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/784107933411991555
They have been broadcasting this for weeks. Ground game.

I know that but for that number to be true it must mean that virtually zero Hispanics voted early in 2012.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/784107933411991555
They have been broadcasting this for weeks. Ground game.

I know that but for that number to be true it must mean that virtually zero Hispanics voted early in 2012.

No.  Suppose 100 voted early in 2012.  If 199 voted early in 2016, that would be an increase of 99.  Divide this by the original number (100) and it's a 99% increase.

Got it. Still, it's a startling number, especially considering that a few days ago California Democrats were delighted because the Latino early vote was up "only" 43%.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Tweetstorm from Colorado.

@CraigHughesinCO 

Mini tweetstorm on early Colorado returns. Numbers are staggering. D's now +8.2% of 290,000 so this is not small sample size 1/5 #copolitics

15% of those who have voted so far in CO have NO vote history. That is a huge number for this early.  2/5

At this point in 2012 there was a 6% R advantage, so this is a 14% swing right now. And consistent across all demographics 3/5

There is no one reason i.e. Denver reporting quicker than El Paso or Douglas.  The county numbers are in line historically 4/5

Fully expect R surge but right now clear that R's are holding their ballots...and there is no GOP presidential field. 5/5

[Landslide Lyndon]

Now Florida=in TRUMP's pocket.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26
2012: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.5%(240K) | REP 39.2%(216K)    D +4.3%

Very good for TRUMP.

DAY 2 in-person Total: 552k  10/26/2016 5:38AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

I hope you get paid in dollars and not rubles.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/791385700730101894
Latest NBC Marist poll in Nevada has Clinton up 25 points in early voting (60-35)

That makes their topline numbers look extremely ridiculous.

[Landslide Lyndon]

NC early vote update:


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

So in NC Primary turnout between 2008 and 2016, we see Democrats losing 29% and Republicans more than doubling! Obama won NC by < 1%.


Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Republican Primary turnout in NC up from 2008 by over 100%!!!



Bill Mitchell Verified account
‏@mitchellvii

Democrat Primary turnout in NC down from 2008 by 29%.


NC looking really good for R's right now which is one of the several must win states for Trump!

Posting Bill Mitchell tweets?
Seriously?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is States Poll the lovechild of Donald Trump and nkpatel?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Voted for Clinton in GA today!

Which county? Long line?

Gwinnett County

40 minute line...read a magazine in nice weather during that time!

Actually that's a vast improvement. Last week there were 3-4 hour lines there.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Nobody can find the Trump buses that are supposed to take people to vote after the NV rally:

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He should have hired Billy Bush to take his supporters to the polls with the Access Hollywood bus.