The absentee/early vote thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there data on what % of eligible voters have cast a vote in each State?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there data on what % of eligible voters have cast a vote in each State?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Latino surge is real!!!!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democrats took the lead in Florida with returned ballots!

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!!

It happened!

[Antonio the Sixth]

As of October 1st, this is the partisan makeup of NH:

GOP: 32.2%
Dem: 29.5%
Und: 38.3%

GOP has 24,344 registration advantage.

On October 15th, 2012, the GOP advantage was 33,799.

http://sos.nh.gov/NamesHistory.aspx

Is this good news for Climbin' Maggie?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nevada is unsettling.

[Antonio the Sixth]

45% increase in Latino VBM in California!

I REALLY hope we'll see those kinds of numbers in NV and AZ too. Time has come for the Great Latino Surge.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ralston:

Clark County turnout record for the first day of early voting was 33,000 in 2012. They are likely to beat that this time around. Most likely bad news for Trump, but we'll have to see the party breakdown

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/789966976957284352

When will we see the party breakdown?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ralston:

Clark County turnout record for the first day of early voting was 33,000 in 2012. They are likely to beat that this time around. Most likely bad news for Trump, but we'll have to see the party breakdown

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/789966976957284352

When will we see the party breakdown?

Voting continues until 8 PM Pacific so we won't see it until very late tonight, possibly tomorrow in the East

Not a problem for me - see avatar. California rules!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Great news! Keep it up, Dems!

Are there stats on the race/ethnicity of early voters as well?

[Antonio the Sixth]

More on Washoe:

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DOMINATING

[Antonio the Sixth]

Day 2 tallies up at...

"The Nevada Early Voting Blog"

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

"Bottom line: After two days, the raw vote lead in urban Nevada for the Democrats is close to 21,000... It's a very blue wave so far, and Republicans have to be worried..."

Truly glorious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  32s33 seconds ago
And in Arizona, notes the Clinton camp, Democrats lead Republicans by ~1,000 ballots cast, compared to ~20,000 DEFICIT at this point in '12.

Wonderful.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OMG Texas

i want to believe

[Antonio the Sixth]

Finally, some Arizona VBM party ID stats:

GOP: 235,565 (38.2%)
DEM: 229,053 (37.1%)
IND: 143,834 (23.3%)
Other: 8,431 (1.4%)

The registered voter base in AZ by party ID is 35R/34I/30D. So Dems are outdoing their registration numbers by 7 points, Republicans are outdoing their registration numbers by 3 points, and independents are lagging their voter registration by 11 points. Apparently in this early voting electorate, Monmouth found a Clinton +10

Do we know what EV looked like at that point in 2012?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So are the partisan numbers in Florida good or bad for the Dems? The last few posts have confused me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/the-nevada-early-voting-blog

"The latest statewide numbers, missing a few rural counties, show a 26,500 lead for the Dems in raw votes. That's 45 percent to 36 percent, the same percentage lead and 3,500 raw votes more than they had at this point in 2012 and about 3 points above the actual registration difference."

Am I the only one who is a bit disappointed that it's only on par with 2012? If Latinos are really turning out in record numbers, the margin should be wider than that, no?

[Antonio the Sixth]

15.4 million ballots cast so far.
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

So we can safely say that more than 1 out of 10 voters have already cast their ballot. That's a pretty big deal!

[Antonio the Sixth]

It makes sense that FL would have a few Hispanic Republicans. Cubans have usually voted GOP, but this might be the year when they finally realign.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports 1m1 minute ago

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Hopefully Hillary's lead increases.

Yes yes please. Early voting is more important now than ever.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In % terms, doesn't that mean that the Democratic margin is about the same as in 2012? Which is all right, I guess, but I'd like to see Dems overperform.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

Tony wants a 50 point win, anything less than that is bad, even if Hillary wins by a 2012 margin.

Are you aware that there's a Senate race in Nevada too?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

Tony wants a 50 point win, anything less than that is bad, even if Hillary wins by a 2012 margin.

Are you aware that there's a Senate race in Nevada too?

Of course, and the candidate is one who is much better than what was nominated 4 years ago.

Sure, but the polls are a bit too close to feel comfortable. If NV turnout had been up a lot, we could have been able to call it for CCM.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

Well, considering that this was a state where the educated/no-college-degree divide was going to smack Democrats, we should be grateful that increased turnout among other dimensions is enabling us to recreate the 2012 win.

Are there any racial/ethnic statistics of the NV early vote? I'd like to see if the Latino vote is showing any signs of improving.