The absentee/early vote thread

[Gass3268]

Interesting.  Keep in mind that the primary early vote was consistently very Trumpy, much more so than on election day in many competitive states.  I definitely am no going into this expecting Clinton to romp in the early vote like Obama generally did in 2012.  Trump's base is very enthusiastic, probably more so than Clinton's base.  The question is whether anti-Trump R's actually show up on election day.  Core NeverTrump types tend to be against early voting on principle.

Clinton also destroyed Sanders when it came to the early vote, in almost every state.

[Gass3268]

I don't know what early voting vs. election day voting looked like in 2012, but the margin between Democrat and Republican registration is a lot narrower than it was in 2012 (37-35 vs. 39-33).

The current voter registration in NC is 40% D, 30% R, 30% Others.

6.7 million registered voters altogether.

So did Democrats go from +2 to +10 since the primary?

[Gass3268]

Total requested ballots (compared to 09/13):
DEM                    15682 (+897)
REP                     14873 (+872)
UNA                    11839 (+680)
LIB                          138 (+  11)

Total returned and accepted ballots (compared to 09/13):
DEM                       163 (+83)
REP                          92 (+47)
UNA                         81 (+35)
LIB                             2 (+  1)

50% increase for the Libertarians!!

[Gass3268]

Isn't the City of Youngstown itself pretty black?

[Gass3268]

Yes, very early, but still encouraging about the strength of the Dem ground game.

This is also encouraging:

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[Gass3268]

He also noted this represents an improvement from 2012.

[Gass3268]

Are these North Carolina Dixiecrats... however many there are still left... really more likely to come out early for Trump against Clinton than they were for Romney against Obama? It's possible, but it's hard for me to imagine considering how Alabama voted against Obama. Remember, we are talking about an increase against a 2012 baseline, not a 1980 or 1992 baseline.

Trump always did overperform with early voters during the primaries so his base might just be more of an early voter base. There's also high enthusiasm for him with his key supporters.

So did Clinton...

[Gass3268]

Absentee voting way up in Northern Virginia:

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That's a 91% increase from 2012.

Falls Church, VA also saw 5% it's city's active turnout vote on day.

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[Gass3268]

Another interesting twitter drump by Dave Wasserman:

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[Gass3268]

Anyone know how the Florida numbers compare to 2012 or is it new this year?

[Gass3268]

Anyone know how the Florida numbers compare to 2012 or is it new this year?

Hard to compare because of this change:

"In 2012, Florida adopted semi-permanent absentee ballot status where mail ballot voters can request to vote-by-mail in the next election when they mail in their ballot, and we saw an increase of mail balloting in 2014."

From http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/2016-early-voting-underwa_b_12184290.html

Ah, so we are comparing apples and oranges in Florida.

[Gass3268]

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From Ari Berman

[Gass3268]

This is just Wake County in NC (includes Raleigh/Durham/Cary):

Gerry Cohen ‏@gercohen  3h3 hours ago
Wake Co NC voted absentees 47 days pre-elex:

2016 1,739
D 42.4%
R 30.1
U 27.2

2012 185
D 32.4%
R 38.4
U 29.2

up 940%, 18% swing to D

There's a bit more detail in Cohen's FB post: https://www.facebook.com/gercohen/posts/10103848424398478

Bad signs for Trump all around. He needs to be winning absentee ballots unquestionably to even match Romney.

The results out of Mecklenburg will also be intetesting. Similar dynamics possibly.

[Gass3268]

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[Gass3268]

Jon Rolston again:

New NV voter reg numbers: Ds up 77,467, picked up a net 5,830 in September. Margin up to 5.6  percent. Indies now more than 20 % of total.

[Gass3268]

DDHQ:

Colorado registration (active) as of this afternoon:
D 998,845
R 992,944
Ds now boast registration edge in CO.
UNA 1,080,438
 
Democrats take the active registration lead! Four years it was this:

In mid-Oct 2012, reg in CO stood at:
R 912456
D 871712
UNAF 882063

[Gass3268]

To counter what is going to be a very heavy Democratic early vote, the Repubs have to be leading the Florida VBM by a minimum of 250K to have a chance. Today the VBM narrowed to a 110K advantage for the GOP. Additionally, a lot of Florida independents are Hispanic so the Indy vote is pretty close to even there

From several days ago,

"Statewide, Republicans are ahead in ballot requests — 43 percent to 38 percent.
That's a much narrower gap than in 2008, the most recent in which comparable data was available. At that time, the Republicans held a solid lead in requests, 51 percent to 32 percent, according to data analyzed for the AP by Catalist, a Democratic firm that helped run data operations for President Obama's 2008 race. Obama won the state by 2.8 percentage points."


Trump has to be significantly ahead in ballot request. McCain lost FL by 2.8% despite being up 51-32% at a certain point.

Yeah, Florida is essentially a reverse Iowa.

[Gass3268]

When does in person early voting start in NC?

[Gass3268]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  1m1 minute ago
Real improvement for Dems in Maine CD-2 compared to past updates, might expect polling improvement there

Referencing chart available here:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/784418320812343299

I think when it's all said and done, CD-2 will be closer than past years but we are going to laugh at ourselves for thinking Trump could win it.

[Gass3268]

488K new registration forms submitted by the Florida Democratic Party; 60K by the Florida Republican Party

[Gass3268]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
My roundup of early voting for the week ending 10/8:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-p-mcdonald/early-voting-a-month-to-g_b_12424562.html

He bizarrely thinks Des Moines is in Dallas County (it's actually in Polk).

Also says that CD-1 is a good representation for Southeast Wisconsin. That being said, mistakes happen.

[Gass3268]

Is there data on what % of eligible voters have cast a vote in each State?

I haven't seen it.

[Gass3268]

Florida's voter registration deadline extended by 1 day in court (to October 12) after Clinton's campaign brought suit against Gov. Scott

https://www.dropbox.com/s/77qsoirtd67o9ff/show_temp.pl-6.pdf?dl=0

Sounds like there is going to be a hearing on Wednesday and the court could rule to extend registration even further.

[Gass3268]

democrats are weakened in the rust belt...and soaring at the coast states.

Huh? Not seeing any issues in the rust belt, other than Iowa. Ohio I believe cut back on the absentee/early voting times. Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin look pretty good!

[Gass3268]

Good numbers from Trump in FL and NC, which have already been strongest Republican swing-states in 2012. He must win those states. I don't care about Virginia and Wisconsin, Clinton can carry them by double-digits (that looks realistic) if only Trump will edge the ones he needs.

Yeah, he's embarrassingly underperforming Romney in both of these states. As of 10/7 he was probably underperforming Romney by 23 points in North Carolina and Clinton has almost caught up to Trump in vote by my requests in Florida. Obama was never close before in person voting started in either state.