The absentee/early vote thread

[Minnesota Mike]

FWIW Hillary Clinton has received at least one vote in Minnesota. Feels weird to have done my civic duty 6 weeks before the election. 

[Minnesota Mike]

Intellectually bankrupt Statespoll comparing "ballots cast" data with ballot request data, proving once and for all that he lacks even basic reading comprehension.

You don't understand.

1. Most voters gonna vote in the end, once they requested Ballots.
2. Plus, Returned(voted) Rate, Normally Republican >>>> Democrats.
Especially in Florida even more
look Election 2014 results.
http://dos.myflorida.com/media/696917/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2014-gen.pdf

3. Mid-October, 2012 Returned(voted) : REP 44% | DEM 40%   
REP +4%
           vs
October 2nd, 2016 Returend(voted): REP 48% (1337 votes) | DEM 31.7% (883 votes)   
REP +16.3%

TRUMP is doing better +12.3% than Mitt Romney(2012).

Just admit you snobby, Now Florida = Likely TRUMP

 

You do realize domestic ballots, vast majority of absentee ballots, have not even been mailed yet (they go out this week). So far the only ballots that have returned are overseas/military. With fewer than 3,000 ballots returned (about 0.03% of expected turnout)  you can draw zero conclusions yet about Florida. 

[Minnesota Mike]

Nevada Day 1 as of 11:30 PM (some smaller counties have not reported yet):

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4531

In Person

Dem 27,309 (52.79%)
Rep 15,313 (29.60%)
Other 9,113 (17.61%)

Absentee's

Dem 13,708 (42.79%)
Rep 12,293 (38.37%)
Other 6,038 (18.85%)

Total

Dem 41,017 (48.96%)
Rep  27,606 (32.95%)
Other 15,151 (18.09%)

[Minnesota Mike]

Nevada Elections ‏@NVElect  51m51 minutes ago
There was an error in reporting Washoe mail/absentee ballot returns. The corrected info can be found here: http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4537 ….

Reps take a small lead in absentees but Dems dominating in In Person WEarly Voting.

[Minnesota Mike]

Florida is toast for Trump, guys

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 37m37 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

CORREX:  Broward had 30k more votes early today (not 25k). Almost tied record day one numbers!!!  #SteveCantAdd

Early Voting turnout is through the roof in Florida. Another 35,000 voters voted early today in Miami-Dade for a total of 70,000  (no partisan breakdown yet but has to be good for Democrats).  That is about 30% of the 2012 total  early turnout and there are still 12 days of Early Voting left.

[Minnesota Mike]

For anyone who is concerned that the early vote is "cannibalizing" the election day vote - that's not necessarily a bad thing. Remember all the stories of people in hours-long lines on election day in 2012? Every person who would vote on election day instead voting early is a person who is not waiting in line on election day.

Knock on wood at least in Florida things seem to be going smother than in 2012. Going from 8 to 14 Early Voting days and extending hours is a big help.

[Minnesota Mike]

A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

[Minnesota Mike]

A low turnout tie in Washoe county NV.

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

Sunday, October 30, 2016
Democratic - 1,888
Republican - 1,873
TOTAL - 4,764

At this point a tie day in Washoe favors Hillary.

All the Rural counties are closed for EV today so that leaves only Clark.

That isn't a tie, but a win for Hillary.

OK if you have to nitpick it's a win for Hillary. I suppose you like polls with decimal points to

[Minnesota Mike]

In Miami-Dade county Early/Absentee voting has nearly equaled the total Early/Absentee vote in 2012 with a week yet to go..

https://twitter.com/MDCElections?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


Vote by Mail:

2012: 244K
2016: 222K

In Person Early

2012: 235K
2016: 239K

[Minnesota Mike]

In Miami-Dade county Early/Absentee voting has nearly equaled the total Early/Absentee vote in 2012 with a week yet to go..

https://twitter.com/MDCElections?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


Vote by Mail:

2012: 244K
2016: 222K

In Person Early

2012: 235K
2016: 239K

Yes, Steve Schale just tweeted that Palm Beach, Broward and Dade surpassed the 1 million mark in VBM and EIP today. Big numbers. Also, Hispanics make up 13.5%, so far, of all early votes. That's another good number for Clinton.

I think we are looking at 6+ mill Early/VBM ballots in Florida (about 4 mill now) out of an estimated total turnout of a little over 9 mill.

[Minnesota Mike]

OK, I know I'll get blasted again for being a killjoy and everything, but... from the NC and FL results, doesn't it look like SttP was a massive flop? African-Americans were supposed to narrow their turnout deficit at least a bit, right? Instead the latest numbers I've seen show them still way down.

If this is wrong please explain me why, but for God's sake cut it with the unbacked "everything will be fine" mantra.

No one's taking this up? Uh-oh.

I believe the big STTP push in Florida is next Sunday.