The absentee/early vote thread

[JerryArkansas]

Not looking too bad with the Absentee's from North Carolina.  Real test is the early voting in the state, not these.

[JerryArkansas]

FL has released their absentee requests by county and party.
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Hard to conclude much when Miami Dade isn't included in the numbers yet.

Yeah but we have big numbers in Pinellas and Orange and Hillsborough are both close

Don't read too much into that.  Most new people seem to register as non-affiliated in Florida, heavily so in the case of those from Puerto Rico.

[JerryArkansas]

What will be interesting about this is, are these Democratic votes election day and early votes being turned or is this something bigger.

[JerryArkansas]

Per Nate Cohn's model Trump has a two point lead with the NC Ballots.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/779332855084220416

Which is way down from 2012, or did you not what to add that part as well.

[JerryArkansas]

Are these North Carolina Dixiecrats... however many there are still left... really more likely to come out early for Trump against Clinton than they were for Romney against Obama? It's possible, but it's hard for me to imagine considering how Alabama voted against Obama. Remember, we are talking about an increase against a 2012 baseline, not a 1980 or 1992 baseline.

Trump always did overperform with early voters during the primaries so his base might just be more of an early voter base. There's also high enthusiasm for him with his key supporters.

Yes, Trump always killed it in the early vote in the competitive primaries and in some cases (LA, AR, MO) it nearly turned into a tie when the election day votes reported.  Also, keep in mind that the committed NeverTrump portion of the GOP tends to be strongly ideologically opposed to early voting in general.

On a different note, don't we generally expect mail ballots to lean right and in person early ballots to lean left?

Yeah, that's why it is so interesting that these trends are occurring.  You would expect something a bit more.

[JerryArkansas]

Guys, please stop the hype !

Only 0.6% of the vote is in so far.

And only 140K people have even requested ballots in NC, out of an expected vote of 4.5 million.

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

This is so meaningless right now.

Tender, when you are doing half of what a 2 point win was in 2012, with demographic numbers on,y worse against you, it points to a fatal defect in your ground work.  If Trump can't get them to request a damn ballot, how in gods name will he get them to the polls?

[JerryArkansas]

Guys, please stop the hype !

Only 0.6% of the vote is in so far.

And only 140K people have even requested ballots in NC, out of an expected vote of 4.5 million.

Even if Dems do a little better now with these few requested ballots, Trump could absolutely crush Hillary among election day voters ...

This is so meaningless right now.

Tender, when you are doing half of what a 2 point win was in 2012, with demographic numbers on,y worse against you, it points to a fatal defect in your ground work.  If Trump can't get them to request a damn ballot, how in gods name will he get them to the polls?

Because it's apples and oranges. In the Austrian presidential election, far-right winger Hofer won the election day vote 52-48 (which was 85% of the total vote), but left-winger Van der Bellen won the postal vote (15% of the vote) by 65-35, giving him the small win.

Just because the Dems do well with a handful of requested postal ballots, it doesn't mean this will be an indicator for a good election outcome for them ...

If the trend continues with 70-80% of the postal vote in, that's a different thing. But hyping around with 1% of postal ballots cast is ridiculous.

When Republican margins are built on these damn postal votes going massively for them, then yes it is ok to follow this kind of stuff.

[JerryArkansas]

https://www.gwinnettcounty.com/portal/gwinnett/Departments/Elections/AbsenteeVoting-Civilians/AdvanceVoting

Gwinnett, the second largest county in Georgia (population 840k), has only one early voting location open this week. Fulton, the largest, has dozens open. It's a complete disgrace what they're doing in Gwinnett.

Thats what happens when your county is run by republican election officials.

[JerryArkansas]

Just a note:

In the Austrian Presidential runoff, a record number of postal ballots was requested (ca. 900.000) and the left-wing candidate won 2/3 of them (incl. my vote).

Yet on election day, the far-right populist candidate won the precinct vote by 52-48 (precinct votes were 85% of the total vote, postal votes were around 15%).

Overall, the result was about 50-50 in the end.

So, despite Dems doing well with the early vote it means nothing about how the overall vote will end up, as Trump's voters are the ones who will most likely vote strongly on election day - rather than early by postal ballot.

America is not Austria.

True, but it doesn't help to interpret a lot into these tiny good early voting numbers for the Dems, when Trump voters could turn out heavily on election day. Because the early vote and election day vote could be apples and oranges.

On the other hand, if all vote-by-mail states (such as CO) show a significant Democratic advantage a day before election day (when 95% of CO ballots have been mailed back already), then there's reason to believe Trump will be heavily defeated (yet we still don't know how Indys voted) ...

Alright, but still, America is not Austria.  Election day of course is going to skew Republican, everyone knows this.  You can still look at the trends however when it comes to enthusiasm.

[JerryArkansas]

in fact this means the turnout is the same....but 200000 more people now live in clark county.

so you can say ...the turnout atm didn't increase...AND there are more people there voting...


https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790001943699525632

Remember, these tweets were sent 2 hours before the polls closed.  So more are going to vote.

[JerryArkansas]

Georgia early vote demographics (10/20)

White: 270,554 (62.5%)
African-American: 122,660 (28.4%)
Hispanic: 4,124 (1.0%)
Other: 7,058 (1.6%)
Unknown: 28,217 (6.5%)

Michael hasn't tweeted yet, but I checked his spreadsheet and it's a bit concerning... Since 10/20, whites are down 0.1%, blacks down 1.2%, other up 0.4%, unknown up 0.8%.

White: 403,067 - 62.4%
Black: 175,732   - 27.2%
Hispanic: 6,752   - 1%
Other: 12,896 - 2%
Unknown: 47,264 - 7.3%

Total: 645,711

I wouldn't be too concerned as of yet.  IIRC Griffin said that many people who were registered under unknown were African Americans who were not able to or haven't changed the designation.  I could be remembering wrong though, so just better ask him.

[JerryArkansas]

Early voting breaking out across the country today.  Wonder how many are going to take advantage of it.  Know I am here in Arkansas.

[JerryArkansas]

What's up with decreased black turnout in NC?

Polling places where African Americans are have been cut down by Republicans.

[JerryArkansas]

Tender you don't need to be a perpetual raincloud on this.

He has to be like this with Hillary.  Since she is a w(b)itch in his eyes.

[JerryArkansas]

What's up with decreased black turnout in NC?

Also, there was a report on either NBC or something like that explaining that Hurricane Matthew is to blame. A black woman explained that voting was not her priority but finding a place to live is #1.

hmmmm or maybe, just maybe its that Obama isn't on the top of the ticket this year and Hillary Clinton is.....nah that couldn't be the reason, doesn't make sense.

Oh honey stop trying to excuse racism, it isn't a good look on anyone.

[JerryArkansas]

Now Florida=in TRUMP's pocket.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26
2012: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.5%(240K) | REP 39.2%(216K)    D +4.3%

Very good for TRUMP.

DAY 2 in-person Total: 552k  10/26/2016 5:38AM

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

the results of Palm Beach and Orange County hasnt been included yet for the second day

after Palm Beach and Orange County included. It didn't change that much.

Florida Early Voting(in person) 10/26  10/26/2016 7:06AM

2012 in person total: DEM 46% | REP 36%    D +10%
2016 Day 2(10/26): DEM 43.86%(256.6K) | REP 38.61%(225.9K)    D +5.25%
Total 585k

Keep in mind that several counties leaning heavily Trump have not started voting early yet.
especially Pasco county.

 

Also remember that you are comparing totals that are not at the same time in the election season.  But nice try doing what your doing.  Your cultists on twitter really love you, hope they don't turn on election day.

[JerryArkansas]

Based on recent ealry voting

FL+NC+OH in TRUMP's pocket.

so TRUMP just needs 10 EV more.

WI or NV+NH or MI or PA

#Trump2016

The stupid is strong with you.

[JerryArkansas]

It seems the early vote in NC, FL and NV is slowly trending the way of Trump/Republicans.

And in CO (where Dems are currently way ahead, but virtually nothing is in yet) the email scandal comes at the worst possible time for Hillary because most voters will fill out their ballot this weekend and over the next week with peak mail returns in about 1 week ... and the email stuff will dominate the whole next week.

Except it isn't.  But continue with your concern trolling.

[JerryArkansas]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

Tony wants a 50 point win, anything less than that is bad, even if Hillary wins by a 2012 margin.

[JerryArkansas]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

Tony wants a 50 point win, anything less than that is bad, even if Hillary wins by a 2012 margin.

Are you aware that there's a Senate race in Nevada too?

Of course, and the candidate is one who is much better than what was nominated 4 years ago.

[JerryArkansas]

So % Dem lead in NV is down. I'm sorry, but I'm disappointed.

It basically parallels 2012 and that's all we need to win NV

Tony wants a 50 point win, anything less than that is bad, even if Hillary wins by a 2012 margin.

Are you aware that there's a Senate race in Nevada too?

Of course, and the candidate is one who is much better than what was nominated 4 years ago.

Sure, but the polls are a bit too close to feel comfortable. If NV turnout had been up a lot, we could have been able to call it for CCM.

You don't call elections until the polls are closed.  You line of thinking is flawed.  And polls are starting to show her pulling away.

[JerryArkansas]

Does anyone have any current thinking of Florida and Colorado?

Florida it is hard to get a read off of due to the large number of Absentee ballots being sent it, but on Monday we will have better idea due to souls to the polls

Colorado, Dems are doing better, as long as republicans don't get a lead of about 2% in the ballots.

[JerryArkansas]

In NC yesterday, 7062 more Democrats voted than in 2012 on that same day.  Turnout doesn't seem to be taking a hit.

[JerryArkansas]

Yep, nothing to do with weekend turnout, just James Comey sending dems out, seems legit

Or it has been weak all cycle and now is ramping up at the same time as Comey.  Both are reasonable possibilities.

[JerryArkansas]

In LA on the other hand, the early vote is already 102% of that in 2012.

Registered Dems have a 5% advantage there among the early vote (it was D+17 in 2012 and D+30 in 2008).

Dixicrates who have finally changed voter registration.