What do you think's gonna happen to Thad Cochran in 2020?

[diptheriadan]

Will he get primaried, will he run and win the primary and general, or will he just retire?

[smoltchanov]

IMHO - retire. He will be 83 and, most likely, will not want to go through difficult possible primary again.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Retirement unless he thinks he's got no chance of primary challenges, but I doubt fiscal conservatives are going to let him get renominated without a fight.

Retirement.

[Heisenberg]

Retirement. Also, if the GOP has a Senate majority after 2018, and Hatch does follow through with retirement, he'll have the honor of being President Pro Tempore during the 116th Congress.

[Frodo]

Retire -I think he got the message loud and clear with Chris McDaniel's victory in the 2014 GOP primary. 

He can't expect to pull off the same stunt in 2020 like he did last time. 

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

I think if he knew that Chris McDaniel would literally send in goons to film is ailing wife in a nursing home and spread rumors that he was having an affair with his long time Chief of Staff (kinda sorta true as it turns out, but his wife had reached a point that she couldn't be reached and his children were accepting of the relationship), he would have retired and some establishment guy would fill the void.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Retire. And thankfully, Chris McDaniel has burned bridges so effectively that a mainstreamer will likely replace him. Whichever Congresscritter wants to move up.

[Kingpoleon]

He retires and Stacey Pickering, Billy Hewes, Cheri Barry, or someone similar replaces him.

[Vosem]

He was on the fence in 2014 in any case, and will probably get to serve as PPT after the 2018 Senate elections, as the cherry on top to a long career. I think retirement in 2020 is close to certain.

Mississippi isn't a place where I have a great deal of knowledge, but Tate Reeves seems likelier to go for Governor '19 than the Senate, so I'd expect Stacey Pickering or Steven Palazzo to run. McDaniel may run again, as well, but I doubt he'd make it through the primary.

[Del Tachi]

Cochran is almost certain to retire in 2020.

Assuming Republicans maintain a majority in the Senate through 2020, Republican Conference rules prohibit Cochran from serving as Chair of the Approps Committee beyond 2019.  In addition to being poised to becoming PPT in 2019, Cochran would also be able to take back the helm of the Ag Committee – which would be important as another Farm Bill is realistic goal before Cochran’s term ends in 2020.  After 2020, with Cochran’s leadership tenures exhausted on both the Ag and Approps committees, his ability to work on behalf of his constituents in the way that he’s accustomed to will be severely limited.  After all, his decision to run for reelection in 2014 (which was not an easy one for Cochran to make) was predicated on retaking control of the Approps Committee to “Fight for Mississippi”.  So I wholeheartedly expect that Cochran will be calling it quits in 2020.     

In 2020, I like Stacey Pickering as a successor to Cochran.  He’s relatively young (will be 52 in 2020) and has experience running statewide campaigns, but he’s recently been dogged by reports that he has less than scrupulous ethics when it comes to campaign finances.  He served as chairman of Romney’s 2012 campaign in Mississippi, and could very easily consolidate the Chamber of Commerce/Establishment wing of the party.  Pickering is not coy on Senatorial ambitions, as he openly announced his intentions to run for in 2014 had Cochran retired.

Other statewide Republicans, Tate Reeves and Lynn Fitch, seem to be angling for higher state office in 2019, so I see it as unlikely than either one of them would run for Senate in 2020.  Delbert Hosemann, who was also not mum concerning his interest in running in 2014 in the event of a Cochran retirement, will be in his 70s by the time Cochran retires and recently seems to have become interested in running for LG in 2019. 

As for the Congresscritters, Gregg Harper has long been considered somewhat of a Cochran prodigy and while his Rankin County-base could substantially buoy his chances in a statewide election, he’ll be 64 in 2020 and likely the dean of the MS House Delegation.  The fact that he’s run for positions in GOP House Leadership might mean that he feels more at-home on the Capitol’s south side.  Steven Palazzo is an interesting possibility, but many politicos don’t see him as possessing the kind of caliber needed to be Mississippi’s next Senator and he’s taken some controversial votes that turn Cochran-types off to him.  1st District Congressman Trent Kelly, IMO, is the most promising of the House members to successfully make the jump, as he is relatively young (will be 54 in 2020), hails from a part of the state that has historically been over-represented statewide (NE Miss/Tupelo), and has a good biography as member of the Army National Guard and former District Attorney.  However, I’m not yet quite sure of how good of a Congressman he’s going to turn out to be, having taken office just over a year ago.

As for Democrats, there have recently been consistent rumors that Jim Hood is finally going to run for Governor in 2019.  I’m highly skeptical of this (Hood has been doing more of his AG job from Houston and is known to not enjoy working with legislators very much) but apparently MS Dems are really pushing him to run, mostly for fundraising and down-ballot reasons.  I guess if he does decide to run against Tate in 2019, he’ll probably be out of job in 2020 and thus might be interested in running for Cochran’s seat if the national environment looks favorable (in this event, Lynn Fitch is likely to be elected Attorney General in 2019). 

[The Arizonan]

I have a feeling that Thad Cochran is going to retire.

It would be hilarious if he ran for reelection, got Lugar'ed, and Mississippi got the Joe Donnelly treatment.

[Kingpoleon]

Ray Mabus, Jim Hood, Brandon Presley, Travis Childers, or Ronnie Musgrave could beat someone like Chris McDaniel.

[jamestroll]

Ray Mabus, Jim Hood, Brandon Presley, Travis Childers, or Ronnie Musgrave could beat someone like Chris McDaniel.

A lot of them are old names.. I would think Jim Hood might stand a chance to win the governorship in 2019, particularly if Trump is president.

Jim Hood has basically been living on borrowed time, but circumstances can change. His victory last year looks impressive, in comparison to Democratic numbers in other statewide offices. But at the same time, his re-election victories have been on a downward trend.