Will Gary Johnson win a state

[BaldEagle1991]

Do you guys think there is a realistic chance Gary Johnson could win a state? That would perhaps be a big surprise on election night.

[YaBoyNY]

yeah nah

[OwlRhetoric]

No.

[they don't love you like i love you]

https://www.amazon.com/Questions-Which-Answer-John-Rentoul/dp/1908739304

[Spark]

No, he will win a county though.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

A month ago, I thought there was a real chance. Now, not so much, and his biggest chance, which is still minuscule, is not Utah but his home state of New Mexico.

[Enduro]

With this election cycle, you never know, but I don't think we should just ignore 25% polling in NM, and 23% polling in UT.

[BaldEagle1991]

With this election cycle, you never know, but I don't think we should just ignore 25% polling in NM, and 23% polling in UT.

Which is exactly why I made this poll.

[Badger]

Of course not. Don't be silly .

[Cubby]

No

And he really hurt himself with that "What's Aleppo?" comment. Its too bad because it seemed like he was going to do well. We already have one candidate in this race who knows nothing about the World, we don't need two.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

No, but he will still do well.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Only if Trump does something to cause his campaign to implode.  Problem is Trump has done dozens of things that would cause a traditional campaign to implode and it hasn't happened yet.  Johnson will do the best a Libertarian has ever done in the popular vote, and he may even get a faithless elector or two, but he won't win a plurality of the popular vote in any state,  If we has states awarding their electoral votes proportionally, he might have a chance at getting some electoral votes in his own right, but no states award them that way.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With this election cycle, you never know, but I don't think we should just ignore 25% polling in NM, and 23% polling in UT.

[Vosem]

Only if Trump does something to cause his campaign to implode.  Problem is Trump has done dozens of things that would cause a traditional campaign to implode and it hasn't happened yet.  Johnson will do the best a Libertarian has ever done in the popular vote, and he may even get a faithless elector or two, but he won't win a plurality of the popular vote in any state,  If we has states awarding their electoral votes proportionally, he might have a chance at getting some electoral votes in his own right, but no states award them that way.

If we awarded electoral votes proportionally, Johnson would've gotten 1 EV from California in 2012.

Anyway, it's very unlikely, and I voted no, but there are clearly certain states (especially NM and UT) where an outside chance definitely exists.

[Breton Racer]

No, but he may win a county or two.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

At this point, I don't think he'll win a state. He should win a few freedom counties though.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Yes; he will crack 30% in NM and the megacoattails will extend to CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, PA, OH, GA, NC, MI, and NJ, handing him the election.

[President Johnson]

No, he won't. He may be in double digits in Utah and Alaska, but he won't carry a state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He will make it close in NM & CO like last time around but Clinton will win NM by 6, Pa by 6 and CO by 3

[Podgy the Bear]

He won't win more than a few counties (if even that).  Even in 1992, Ross Perot (with his 19% support nationally and second place finishes in Maine and Utah) won less than ten scattered counties. 

[Tender Branson]

Nah, but he'll get respectable results in many as a protest option.

[Sir Mohamed]

No, not anywhere close. Even UT is not in play at all.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is the Pope Protestant?

[Mr. Morden]

No, but he may win a county or two.

What county is he most likely to win?

Also, in how many counties will he come in second?

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

No, but he may win a county or two.

What county is he most likely to win?

Also, in how many counties will he come in second?

I'd say... somewhere in NM which is pretty white and sparsely populated, but with a decent level of education. Probably went 60-40 Romney, but overwhelmingly for Johnson in the Gov. race. Any counties fit that?