Moldovan presidential election, 30th October

[aross]

Ooh, hadn't noticed this, should be interesting.

Will be the first direct presidential election in the country since 1996, presumably due to the hilarious 3-year sh**tshow the last indirect one ended up being. I know very little about Moldovan politics and while spending two hours with Wikipedia and Google Translate a while ago every insight I thought I might have gathered was seemingly contradicted 5 minutes later. So No Write-up For You. It should however be noted that Mr Plahotniuc is not a nice man.

The most recent pol-oh fck it just read it yourself.

The government is at present lead by Pavel Filip of the PDM (Plahotniuc's party) in a coalition with the Liberal Party. Quite exactly how this works given that they only have a third of the seats in parliament is unclear; at a guess it involves reasonably large amounts of money and the even for Moldovan standards unusually high number of independent MPs (mostly from the once dominant "Communist" Party).

[ag]

This is important, because this could be one place WWIII could start. Transnistria is making fresh noises about joining Russia: look at the map, and guess how Ukraine will react. Moldovan government will have an important role to play here.

[GMantis]

This is important, because this could be one place WWIII could start. Transnistria is making fresh noises about joining Russia: look at the map, and guess how Ukraine will react. Moldovan government will have an important role to play here.

I doubt that Russia is going to accept. South Ossetia has been requesting to join Russia for years without success and they're right on the border.
But even if Transnistria joined Russia and war broke out with Ukraine in result, why would that lead to WWIII?

[ag]

The last time I checked, Romania was part of NATO.

[GMantis]

The last time I checked, Romania was part of NATO.

Even if they intervene to help Moldova's invasion of Transnistria (which they didn't during the last times), this hardly meets the criteria for an attack of a NATO country.

[Crumpets]

I've been following this election somewhat closely (compared to other small-country elections) and a couple of points:

- The election has two rounds, unless one candidate gets 50% in the first round - almost definitely will not happen.
- The communists have yet to nominate a candidate, and are calling for a boycott of the elections.
- Vlad Filat's Liberal Democratic Party has also not nominated a candidate, and says they will endorse the strongest right-wing (pro-European) candidate.
- Action and Solidarity is a new center-right pro-European party with no representation in Parliament, and has been polling in a weak 2nd.
- The Dignity and Truth Platform Party (PPDA) is also a new pro-European, conservative, populist party, which had a high profile in the recent protests. Even though they haven't been polling that well, it will be interesting to see how well they do.
- Anecdotally, enthusiasm seems to be very low about this election. I expect turnout will be pretty low.

Also, I was one of the people who compiled the poll list on Wikipedia, and I was unable to find any polls later than June. Does anybody have any?

[Beagle]

Also, I was one of the people who compiled the poll list on Wikipedia, and I was unable to find any polls later than June. Does anybody have any?

IMAS has published the raw numbers for a poll which was in the field from July 25th to August 9th. The poll was open-ended, asking "Which politician or public personality would best handle the office of President of Moldova" and respondents were only allowed a single reply. This garbage polling produced the following mess:

[ag]

The last time I checked, Romania was part of NATO.

Even if they intervene to help Moldova's invasion of Transnistria (which they didn't during the last times), this hardly meets the criteria for an attack of a NATO country.

They will not have to intervene voluntarily. They will be attacked.

[GMantis]

The last time I checked, Romania was part of NATO.

Even if they intervene to help Moldova's invasion of Transnistria (which they didn't during the last times), this hardly meets the criteria for an attack of a NATO country.

They will not have to intervene voluntarily. They will be attacked.

Why the hell would Russia attack Romania? To sell them gas at gunpoint?

[ag]

The last time I checked, Romania was part of NATO.

Even if they intervene to help Moldova's invasion of Transnistria (which they didn't during the last times), this hardly meets the criteria for an attack of a NATO country.

They will not have to intervene voluntarily. They will be attacked.

Why the hell would Russia attack Romania? To sell them gas at gunpoint?

Because Moldovan resistance will be hiding there.

[Crumpets]

New poll from ASDM:

Igor Dodon (PSRM) - 36.2%
Maia Sandu (PAS) - 16.1%
Andrei Nastase (PPDA) - 13.9%
Marian Lupu (PD) - 12.4%
Other/Undecided - 21.4%

The good news for the pro-Russians is that Dodon seems to have a solid lead. The good news for the pro-Europeans is that should Sandu make the next round, Nastase and Lupu's voters are, imho, much more likely to back her than Dodon.

[Famous Mortimer]

The important thing to remember about Moldova is that it's never clear as the sparse foreign reporting makes it seem.

Russia is probably giving money to both the pro-Russia and "anti-Russia" blocs. Likewise, the EU probably has channels open to both sides.

It's kind of like American politics when it comes to Wall Street. They give money to both sides. They slightly prefer the Republicans win. But they're fine if a Democrat wins as well.

The Socialist Party of the Republic of Moldova is a particularly malleable party when it comes to its Russia stance. Originally it broke away from the Communists because they were too authoritarian and pro-Russian. When the Communists themselves started being more moderate and Russia started looking for a back up plans, the Socialists jumped at the chance to fill that space, no so much out of ideological commitment, but just to have a shot at power.

[Crumpets]

Bump.

The election is in three days, so here's an update on the polls:

Dodon (PSRM) is still strongly in first, but definitely under the majority required to avoid a runoff. Sandu (PAS) is in second, but Nastase (PPDA) is polling only a few points behind.

There's only been one poll of the runoff, which shows Dodon up 16.7 over Sandu and 23.2 over Nastase with loads of undecideds.

[Beagle]

Results with 99,3% in:

Igor Dodon - 48.26%
Maia Gimpu - 38.42%
Dumitru Ciubaşenco - 6.01%
Iurie Leancă - 3.11
Mihai Ghimpu - 1.80%

A few minor candidates got 2.3% between them.

Nastase and Lupu dropped out in the last week, endorsing Sandu. I saw a poll according to which 11% of the Nastase voters picked Dodon. It was really close to ending in the first round (in fact I think the diaspora votes ended pushing Dodon back under 50%), so it could have been a very dumb move. Considering that Ciubaşenco's voters should be firmly behind Dodon in the runoff, it does appear that the PSRM-er is the prohibitive favorite, but surprises have been known to happen.

[Crumpets]

Sandu did significantly better than I was expecting. If she can get Ghimpu's and Leancă's voters in the next round, she'll finish with over 40% of the vote, which is pretty darn respectable for someone who has never polled higher than the mid-20s in any poll.

By the way, Beagle, you labeled Sandu as Gimpu in your table.

[Beagle]

Dodon wins.

With about 72% of the vote in, it's 57.5% for the Socialist to 42.5 for Sandu. It's wrong to view this election through a Russia/West dichotomy only, but I suppose this will be the only angle that will get covered in mainstream media. I'd appreciate any other viewpoints.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I noticed that there are some protests over operating of electoral commissions in foreign countries for diaspora. There were not enough paper ballots for all people to vote, I see that many Sandu supporters are pissed of because of that on twitter or Central Electoral Commission fanpage.