How would Kasich and Rubio be doing with minority voters?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 11:22:10 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  How would Kasich and Rubio be doing with minority voters?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: How would Kasich and Rubio be doing with minority voters?  (Read 1080 times)
Ronnie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,993
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 11, 2016, 03:06:50 PM »
« edited: September 11, 2016, 07:27:31 PM by Ronnie »

Would they have been able to prevail this year by depressing turnout among blacks, Latinos, and Asians or would they have been able to substantially improve on Romney margins?  Or perhaps both?

I could see both of them breaking 30%, or maybe even 35%, with Latinos, but breaking 10% with blacks would be an uphill climb.  What do you all think?
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,076
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2016, 03:10:02 PM »

Kasich got 30% of the black vote in Ohio when running for governor last time, so he might have some potential to get up to maybe even 15%, particularly given Hillary's issues. But Rubio would have no such potential. He comes across as too rigidly conservative, without projecting much empathy for the marginalized.
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2016, 03:10:27 PM »

Rubio would break about 40% with Latinos in my opinion.
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2016, 03:11:51 PM »

Kasich:
Hispanic: ~37.5%
African-American: ~17.5%
Asian: ~30%
Other: ~42.5%

Rubio:
Hispanic: ~37.5%
African-American: ~10%
Asian: ~37.5%
Other: ~37.5%

Rubio overperforms with Hispanics relative to how he would be doing nationally.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,455
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2016, 03:27:36 PM »

Either would obviously being doing better than the orange-haired clown.
Rubio even slightly more than Kasich with Hispanics.

Logged
Coolface Sock #42069
whitesox130
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,695
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.39, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2016, 03:50:09 PM »

Much better than Trump.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2016, 03:55:09 PM »

I think Kasich would have done better with Hispanics (and other minorities) than Rubio.

I agree.
Logged
henster
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,988


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2016, 04:03:14 PM »

Hillary's episode today if she were running against Rubio would've been devastating.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2016, 04:23:39 PM »

Certainly better than Trump, but still not well.
Logged
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,207
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2016, 04:24:52 PM »

Certainly better than Trump, but still not well.
Logged
Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 770
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2016, 05:25:06 PM »

Kasich would've gotten 45-49% of the latino vote.  Dubya got 44% in 2004, and he's much more divisive and conservative than Kasich is. 

A Kasich-Rubio or Kasich-Martinez ticket would have CRUSHED Hillary in the biggest GOP victory since HW Bush in 1988. They would have won 400+ electoral votes and the popular vote by around 10-12 points.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,637
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2016, 06:01:31 PM »

Rubio would've at least repeated Bush '04 with Hispanics, but otherwise I doubt he would've improved too much. Kasich is more variable -- depending on the themes his general election campaign hit and how Hillary responded, I could see him not doing any better than Romney or improving even on 2004 numbers. Hard to say.
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 11, 2016, 07:00:10 PM »

Since, in order to win the nomination, they would have had to have pushed significantly to the right, very badly.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,459
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 11, 2016, 07:01:37 PM »

Kasich would do slightly better with hispanics than Romney but not that much more. Kasich's win would largely be on the back of suburban whites returning to the GOP in droves in areas where the GOP has been shedding those voters. Rubio would do better with Kasich among hispanics, but worse among whites slightly.

I'd say low-to-mid 30s for Kasich and mid-to-high 30s for Rubio.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,661
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2016, 07:05:45 PM »

Kasich would've gotten 45-49% of the latino vote.  Dubya got 44% in 2004, and he's much more divisive and conservative than Kasich is. 

A Kasich-Rubio or Kasich-Martinez ticket would have CRUSHED Hillary in the biggest GOP victory since HW Bush in 1988. They would have won 400+ electoral votes and the popular vote by around 10-12 points.

No, he wouldn't have.   Polls released suggested no such advantage for Kasich.   

I think Kasich was kind of overrated.   The reason he never really got shown to be clowny like the rest of the Republicans was because he was never vetted or challenged by anyone.    He made a lot of questionable statements, especially toward women.   He probably would've been shown to have lots of flaws.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2016, 07:18:16 PM »

Kasich wouldn't have won Pa, he would have won Iowa and made a run at CO.

Rubio would have won NV, both would have defeated Clinton, now since the convention bounce has faded except TRUMP. But she boosted her standing in Pa especially since convention.
Logged
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,721
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2016, 07:22:57 PM »


With Hispanics, yes.

With blacks, not really.  Possibly not better at all.

With Asians, it depends. 
Logged
Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 770
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2016, 07:30:33 PM »


With Hispanics, yes.

With blacks, not really.  Possibly not better at all.

With Asians, it depends. 

Fair enough.  Blacks have been brainwashed by the Democratic Party and are totally unquestioningly subservient to them. 

Kasich would not have won Asians, but he would have gotten around 35-40% (Romney got 26%).
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2016, 07:31:10 PM »


With Hispanics, yes.

With blacks, not really.  Possibly not better at all.

With Asians, it depends. 

Fair enough.  Blacks have been brainwashed by the Democratic Party and are totally unquestioningly subservient to them. 

Kasich would not have won Asians, but he would have gotten around 35-40% (Romney got 26%).

Oh my lord...
Logged
Roronoa D. Law
Patrick97
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,496
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2016, 08:00:54 PM »

Same as any other Republican not Trump. What makes these 2 any different?
Logged
Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,144
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2016, 08:09:48 PM »

Kasich would've gotten 45-49% of the latino vote.  Dubya got 44% in 2004, and he's much more divisive and conservative than Kasich is. 

A Kasich-Rubio or Kasich-Martinez ticket would have CRUSHED Hillary in the biggest GOP victory since HW Bush in 1988. They would have won 400+ electoral votes and the popular vote by around 10-12 points.

This is a 408-130 win:


I really doubt anyone not an incumbent could manage that.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,175


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2016, 08:12:28 PM »

Same as any other Republican not Trump. What makes these 2 any different?

The're Smiley moderate heroes Smiley
Logged
Arbitrage1980
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 770
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2016, 09:25:20 PM »

Kasich would've gotten 45-49% of the latino vote.  Dubya got 44% in 2004, and he's much more divisive and conservative than Kasich is. 

A Kasich-Rubio or Kasich-Martinez ticket would have CRUSHED Hillary in the biggest GOP victory since HW Bush in 1988. They would have won 400+ electoral votes and the popular vote by around 10-12 points.

This is a 408-130 win:


I really doubt anyone not an incumbent could manage that.

From looking at that map, HI, IL, NJ, CT, are probably stretches, but everything else would have been within grasp.  So yeah, I exaggerated with 400+; it would've been more like 370-385ish.
Logged
#TheShadowyAbyss
TheShadowyAbyss
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,033
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -3.64

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2016, 09:49:03 PM »

Kasich may get around 12% of the black vote nationally with maybe 20-30% in Ohio And probably get 31-34% of the Hispanic vote. I see Kasich doing better among Hispanics and Black voters than Rubio. Rubio is just a Cruz in moderate clothing, I think minorities would see past his facade.
Logged
ag
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2016, 10:36:04 PM »

Rubio would break about 40% with Latinos in my opinion.

No way. But he would be taking 80% or more of Cubans in Florida.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.055 seconds with 13 queries.