Which upset would surprise you least?
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  Which upset would surprise you least?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: See title (with 538 odds in parentheses)
#1
Alaska (19.3%)		  
#2
New Mexico (18.0%)		  
#3
Minnesota (17.6%)		  
#4
Maine (17.2%)		  
#5
Rhode Island (16.0%)		  
#6
South Dakota (15.0%)		  
#7
Montana (14.3%)		  
#8
Delaware (13.6%)		  
#9
Texas (12.6%)		  
#10
New Jersey (11.4%)		  
#11
Kansas (11.3%)		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 117

Author Topic: Which upset would surprise you least?  (Read 1419 times)
mencken
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« on: September 11, 2016, 04:27:42 PM »
« edited: September 11, 2016, 04:37:36 PM by mencken »
South Carolina - 18.5% and Missouri - 18.4% were excluded for being more intuitively obvious choices.

Also, for your amusement:
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AGA
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« Reply #1 on: September 11, 2016, 04:31:03 PM »
Alaska since it was closer than most of these other states and is trending Democratic. It will also be interesting to see what Johnson's numbers in this state are and how they may affect the result.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: September 11, 2016, 04:35:37 PM »
Alaska.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #3 on: September 11, 2016, 04:43:40 PM »
Quote from: Chrome on September 11, 2016, 04:31:03 PM
Alaska since it was closer than most of these other states and is trending Democratic. It will also be interesting to see what Johnson's numbers in this state are and how they may affect the result.
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Orthogonian Society Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2016, 05:54:15 PM »
Maine, Minnesota, Alaska.
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LLR
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« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2016, 06:52:27 PM »
South Dakota because it has a fetish for making maps look bad
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elcorazon
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2016, 08:45:57 AM »
1. Minnesota
2. Montana
3. Alaska
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2016, 06:51:00 PM »
Montana or Alaska going to Clinton
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2016, 06:52:43 PM »
1. Alaska
2. Minnesota
3. Maine
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Pragmatic Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2016, 07:37:08 PM »
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2016, 07:57:34 PM »
Minnesota (which is way more of a swing state than Atlas wants to admit), followed by Maine at-large.
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Senator-elect Spark
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2016, 07:58:31 PM »
Alaska, Minnesota, Maine
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mencken
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« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2016, 08:30:40 AM »
Bump:

Nate Silver now considers Maine the obvious favorite:
Maine 28.1%
Minnesota 22.2%
New Mexico 21.5%
Rhode Island 17.6%
Montana 17.4%
Alaska 16.1%
Delaware 15.4%
New Jersey 13.3%
South Dakota 12.1%
Kansas 8.8%
Texas 8.3%
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Coolface Sock #42069
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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2016, 09:00:02 AM »
Maine, easily.
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2016, 09:05:14 AM »
New Mexico only voted for a loser in 1976 and 2000, and I'm pretty sure Trump will be the winner of the election.

Minnesota, Rhode Island, Delaware, and New Jersey wouldn't surprise me either.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2016, 09:06:50 AM »
Trump winning New Jersey.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2016, 09:30:51 AM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on September 12, 2016, 07:57:34 PM
Minnesota (which is way more of a swing state than Atlas wants to admit), followed by Maine at-large.

No it isn't...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2016, 09:34:20 AM »
Quote from: mencken on September 24, 2016, 08:30:40 AM
Bump:

Nate Silver now considers Maine the obvious favorite:
Maine 28.1%
Minnesota 22.2%
New Mexico 21.5%
Rhode Island 17.6%
Montana 17.4%
Alaska 16.1%
Delaware 15.4%
New Jersey 13.3%
South Dakota 12.1%
Kansas 8.8%
Texas 8.3%

that's what weighing Emerson and Google Consumer Surveys highly will do.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2016, 09:35:25 AM »
Quote from: Plankton5165 on September 24, 2016, 09:05:14 AM
New Mexico only voted for a loser in 1976 and 2000, and I'm pretty sure Trump will be the winner of the election.

Minnesota, Rhode Island, Delaware, and New Jersey wouldn't surprise me either.
Your trolling isn't very good.
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Arbitrage1980
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« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2016, 11:56:26 AM »
Trump winning Maine outright
Trump winning Wisconsin
Hillary winning Arizona
Hillary winning Georgia


The other scenarios just aren't plausible. Minnesota has not gone GOP since 1972, and it is not a good state for Trump due to college educated whites in the twin cities and the northern part of the state being extremely liberal. Now, McCain and Romney did better in MN than in MI, but I can't think of a scenario where Trump wins it.

Same with Hillary and Alaska. Johnson will do well here, but he's not going to take enough away from Trump to hand it over to Hillary.

New Mexico is 47% latino. ZERO chance Trump wins it.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2016, 11:58:27 AM »
1. Trump winning Maine
2. Clinton winning Texas
3. Clinton winning Alaska
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SWE
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« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2016, 12:24:11 PM »
Maine and Alaska are the only remote possibilities
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« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2016, 01:50:47 PM »
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2016, 01:51:38 PM »
I cant believe people are choosing alaska...the atlas obsession with a "blue" alaska is getting old. Also, Alaska has a 16.5% chance not a 19% chance according to 538
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mencken
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« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2016, 10:50:29 PM »
Looks like Minnesota was the closest.
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