Would polls be the same if Obama were succeeding Clinton today?

[edmund]

I wonder if Clinton had defeated Obama for the nomination in 2008 and had been president for the last eight years and now Obama were the nominee campaigning to succeed her would the election outlook be more or less the same.  The only major difference would be that Obama would have 8 more years experience in the Senate and so there wouldn't be questions about his experience or readiness as there was in 2008.