VA 2017 (PPP) - Northam/Gillespie tie, Northam leads other republicans

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Northam - 37%
Gillespie - 37%

Northam - 38%
Wittman - 33%

Northam - 37%
Wagner - 32%

Northam - 39%
Stewart - 31%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/clinton-leads-by-6-8-in-virginia.html

[KingSweden]

This is gonna be a barnburner

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not necessarily, if Bobby Scott replaces Kaine and there is a special, it will go to Northam over Gillespie

[Vosem]

Presumably a tie for Gillespie with a 2016 electorate transfers to a narrow lead in an off-year electorate, and this is before popular Obama leaves office and unpopular Hillary is inaugurated. Decently likely Republican pickup here, I would say, unless the primary really goes off the rails.

[heatcharger]

Presumably a tie for Gillespie with a 2016 electorate transfers to a narrow lead in an off-year electorate, and this is before popular Obama leaves office and unpopular Hillary is inaugurated. Decently likely Republican pickup here, I would say, unless the primary really goes off the rails.

I highly doubt the popularity of Hillary will matter at all in this race. McAullife is a mostly invisible governor, so there's not much for the GOP to rail on.

I think Northam will win 50-47 or something like that.

[Kingpoleon]

Tilt/Lean R if Gillespie's nominated, Tossup with the non-Tea Partiers, Tilt D with Stewart and Tea Partiers.

[ElectionsGuy]

Well, VA is a blue state, so Northam definitely has the edge.

If Hillary becomes president this isn't relevant.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Terry McAuliffe won when Obama was PREZ.

[MasterJedi]

Well, VA is a blue state, so Northam definitely has the edge.

If Hillary becomes president this isn't relevant.

And it's also an off year so it gives Republicans a chance that they wouldn't otherwise have. Such as Warner in 2014, if that was this year he would sail to victory.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes. But Terry McAuliffe won in 2013.

[MasterJedi]

Yes. But Terry McAuliffe won in 2013.

Never said the Republicans would win, it just gives them a shot. Off year and turnout down, Clinton as President also helps. No guarantee but better than a Presidential year election.

[Frodo]

Looks encouraging, but I fully expect polls to tighten and become more GOP-friendly when the 2017 political season really gets going. 

[NeverAgain]

It's an off-off election year so we're trying to keep the Hillary ground game here for Northam and then who ever McAuliffe appoints.

[windjammer]

I think the Pub nominee will win.

But this poll is basically useless, not enough people know the 2 candidates in order to make this poll relevant

[Figueira]

The presidential margin in Virginia will also help predict this.

[Heisenberg]

The presidential margin in Virginia will also help predict this.

Not really. Trump is a terrible fit for the state, while Clinton's running mate is a Virginian.

[Figueira]

The presidential margin in Virginia will also help predict this.

Not really. Trump is a terrible fit for the state, while Clinton's running mate is a Virginian.

OK. So if Clinton wins Virginia by a hair while winning overall, we can say that the Republicans have a good chance there in the future.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bobby Scott will be the next Senator of VA and Ralph Northam will be Gov

[Heisenberg]

The presidential margin in Virginia will also help predict this.

Not really. Trump is a terrible fit for the state, while Clinton's running mate is a Virginian.

OK. So if Clinton wins Virginia by a hair while winning overall, we can say that the Republicans have a good chance there in the future.

Look at the PPP poll. Clinton got a higher percent of Democrats than Trump got with Republicans, with most Gary Johnson voters being self-identified Republicans. If Trump got those disaffected voters, the race in Virginia would be roughly tied (Trump down by one or so).

[Enduro]

Recently polls have been undercutting republican support. Gillespie might be leading Northam, but if he is it's a very small lead.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

A match-up between the only candidates that are well-known statewide is a tie at under 40%.  This race is wide open.