Presidential Ratings and Predictions - New Jersey

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine ME-01 ME-02 Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska NE-01 NE-02 NE-03 Nevada New Hampshire

Ratings

Undecided: 38 (Colorado and Florida)

Safe Clinton: 126
Likely Clinton: 20
Lean Clinton: 7
Toss-Up: 18
Lean Trump: 26
Likely Trump: 18
Safe Trump: 50

Clinton: 153
Trump: 94
Toss-Up: 18

Predictions

Clinton: 198
Trump: 105

New Jersey: Safe D, 57-40 Clinton.

Yeah, so both Colorado and Florida are stuck, the former between Likely and Lean D, the latter between Lean D and Toss-Up. I know those threads already have a ton of votes but if you feel the need to change your vote or if you haven't voted in those threads yet, I highly encourage you to influence it one way or the other. But to be honest, I'm not sure how many more people can vote in those threads.

[Dr. Arch]

Safe D. /sane

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This is one of those states in the "if you say anything other than Safe D - Clinton, you need your head examined.

[ElectionsGuy]

This is one of those states in the "if you say anything other than Safe D - Clinton, you need your head examined.

Looks like someone already voted Lean R lmao.

[Gustaf]

I think people have different calibrations of the categories. I put this as Likely D, not Safe. Polling and my gut feeling indicates this is one of those places Trump will do relatively well in - Clinton seems to be up by high single digits right now which doesn't qualify as safe in my book.

[Xing]

This state may trend a bit toward Trump, but nowhere near enough for him to even make it close.

Safe D, Hillary wins 55-42.

[President Johnson]

Safe Democratic.

Clinton: 57%
Trump: 40%

[Skye]

This is one of those states in the "if you say anything other than Safe D - Clinton, you need your head examined.

Looks like someone already voted Lean R lmao.

Probably statespoll.

[Tiger front]

Safe D.
Clinton 56%
Trump 41%
Other 3%

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe D.

My prediction:

✓ Clinton: 57.4%
Trump: 39.3%

[Devils30]

NJ will have some interesting swings though. The shore will get more R and Somerset, Morris, Hunterdon will get more D.

[evergreenarbor]

Safe D.

Clinton: 55%
Trump: 41%
Johnson: 3%
Stein: 1%

[Buffalo Bill]

light blue

[Suburbia]

Likely D. Clinton will dominate in Essex, Union, Hudson, and Bergen counties. The only way Trump wins Bergen County is if he can appeal to the wealthy white voters who lean Republican. Bergen County, New Jersey is the wealthiest county in America.

Clinton-57%
Trump-42%
Johnson 5%
Stein-2%

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Safe D Clinton 55-42-3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe Clinton

[PulaskiSkywayDriver]

47-46 Trump. This ones gonna be the surprise.
He wins big at the Shore and does respectable in the suburbs.

[Dr. Arch]

47-46 Trump. This ones gonna be the surprise.
He wins big at the Shore and does respectable in the suburbs.

Pls

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

47-46 Trump. This ones gonna be the surprise.
He wins big at the Shore and does respectable in the suburbs.

Umm, Trump has been collapsing in well-educated areas nationwide, particularly suburbs (see: Waukesha,WI; KS-03). How does this at all indicate that ultra-suburban NJ will trend towards him?

[Zarn]

47-46 Trump. This ones gonna be the surprise.
He wins big at the Shore and does respectable in the suburbs.

I know the Philly suburbs aren't going to help him, especially Cherry Hill. I can't see Bergen going his way. I fail to see why the Shore would even fathom voting for him (at least more so than a generic GOP). Casino people aren't exactly happy with him.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Likely D.

Clinton 53
Trump 46

[StatesPoll]

This is one of those states in the "if you say anything other than Safe D - Clinton, you need your head examined.

Looks like someone already voted Lean R lmao.

Probably statespoll.

I voted Lean D

[StatesPoll]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-jersey/#plus
New Jersey: Sep. 14-20 Google Consumer Surveys. 655 LV
TRUMP 36% | Hillary 36% | Johnson 5%
Leader: Trump +1    Adjusted Leader: Trump +1

And this Poll = pre-Ted Cruz's endorsement!!!

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-jersey/#plus
New Jersey: Sep. 14-20 Google Consumer Surveys. 655 LV
TRUMP 36% | Hillary 36% | Johnson 5%
Leader: Trump +1    Adjusted Leader: Trump +1

Worthless because of GeoIP. A lot of white-collar workers probably have IP's which look like they're in NY or CT

[Cruzcrew]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-jersey/#plus
New Jersey: Sep. 14-20 Google Consumer Surveys. 655 LV
TRUMP 36% | Hillary 36% | Johnson 5%
Leader: Trump +1    Adjusted Leader: Trump +1

And this Poll = pre-Ted Cruz's endorsement!!!

You're using a ing Google consumer survey