Is Trump now the favorite?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Of course not just now. He has always been the favorite

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The electoral map is still difficult for him, particularly because Pennsylvania has not tightened as much as other states have.

We don't really know that, because we didn't have so many descent polls in swing states. So he's probably overestimated in some states, while underestimated in others.  That's why I rather believe national polls right now (since we have much more A pollsters  there).

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump still has to survive three real debates with an intellectual superior. How's it going to look when he gets embarrassed by a sick old lady? Bad!

But her alt-right speech supposed to destroy him, didn't it?
And her "deplorables" remark should energise her base, shouldn't it?

And now we have to believe that she'll kill him during the debates? OK.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Some of them may say, "yeah, give him a chance". But most of them will say, "hell, no." If, at that stage, it looks like Clinton has a clear lead, these people may stay home. But if it looks like Trump has a chance, expect them to head to the ballot box (especially when the excellent Clinton GOTV operation will be reminding them to).

Yeah, yeah, sure... excellent GOTV, ground game, outperforming in ads.

But it is... subject iv. Especially, when the candidate doesn't seems so enthusiastic to his/her voters...

The best GOTV "operation" so far was "deplorables"

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It's plausible that Trump can win, however, I would still favor Clinton at about 2:1 chance. Before the conventions, I probably would have favored Clinton at 4:1.

Agree. I'll wait 1-2 weeks. Quick changes caused by news stories might be temporary, even though "Deplorables"/Pneumonia might be a "game-changer"

I was much more certain/happy about last 4 week. During them Trump steady but surely has gained little by little, week after week.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Nate Silver agrees with me.

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[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump is the favorite to ride off into the sunset with Putin, never again to throw his silly hat into the ring, after Hillary gets into office.