Predict the 2016 Senate election with a Trump victory?
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Author Topic: Predict the 2016 Senate election with a Trump victory?  (Read 351 times)
Pragmatic Conservative
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« on: September 14, 2016, 11:54:32 AM »
While unlikely, how would you see the down ballot races going if Trump is elected. Many here feel Donald Trump will have a negative impact on down ballot Republicans, but how will that change if he actually wins, in particularly in the Senate.

Assume this is the final election map


Donald Trump 279 EV 48%
Hillary Clinton 259EV 47%
Other 5%
  
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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2016, 11:56:49 AM »
D+2, pretty much what TNV said, though I think Democrats might win NV or NH in that scenario.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2016, 12:02:52 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on September 14, 2016, 11:55:44 AM
Democrats gain IL, WI, NH. Republicans gain NV. D+2, 52R/48D.

This, assuming we don't get something weird from the LA jungle.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2016, 12:04:25 PM »
http://www.270towin.com/2016-senate-election/l1e7gl

North Carolina could go either way.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2016, 02:16:19 PM »
If Trump wins the state, he pulls Burr across. If he loses by 2 or less, Burr narrowly edges out. If Trump loses by more than 2, he and McCrory sink Burr with them.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2016, 07:46:13 PM »
Quote from: Heisenberg on September 14, 2016, 02:16:19 PM
If Trump wins the state, he pulls Burr across. If he loses by 2 or less, Burr narrowly edges out. If Trump loses by more than 2, he and McCrory sink Burr with them.

I was picturing a win along these lines:

275: Donald Trump/Mike Pence - 47.3%
263: Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine - 46.1%
Gary Johnson/William Weld - 5.1%
Others - 1.5%
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