FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5

[ApatheticAustrian]

what a crazy election......but for me as an european it's the most european (and so "logical") US election i have ever seen.

the "right wing"-guy promises thetypical social-democratic stuff...but only for his own ethnic group and blue collar voters are reacting the same way like in the rest of the "west": appreciation and support.

i wish for the US to be different and more "liberty"-loving than europe but at the moment i guess, the US will too vote for the putin-adoring, clue-less and emotion-controlled candidate.

regarding these specific polls...OH seems like a goner but i guess florida will be too close to call till the end.

[ApatheticAustrian]

besides from the fitness question a trump-biden election would have been an apocalyptic gaffe-armageddon, with two characters who are, in some ways, quite similar.

[ApatheticAustrian]

in my opinion, the media is - in some ways - biased against both candidates.

on the more visible level, ofc NEARLY ALL members of the mainstream journalistic world...generally educated people with idealistic views about the world....loath trump from the bottom of their heart.

but....at the same time, writing narratives like comebacks and close elections and the fall of the high-and-mighty is bread and butter for any self-respecting and ratings-interested journalist too....the crazier the contrast between the candidates the better.

which is why every little trump victory (like reading a speech without destroying all his teeth from the foot-in-mouth-putting) and every hillary downfall gets much more attention than it would otherwise.

cause.....the oh-so-liberal media falls every time for a good horse-race-scenario and it also loves to contradict the stereotype of the oh-so-liberal media, which is why they want to have it both ways....

in my opinion, since trump now seems to have become a puppet controlled by his new campaign overlords and the blue-collar-demise seems to be real, hillary is the candidate more vulnerable to another gaffe ...especially since everybody says she is till the favorite, which is kind of a false promise.

maybe the US are the one country which is able to stand against the tide but i get more sceptical each day....the debates must be a TKO, otherwise this is going to become a nail-biter imo, against all metrics.

[ApatheticAustrian]

besides from the fitness question a trump-biden election would have been an apocalyptic gaffe-armageddon, with two characters who are, in some ways, quite similar.

Haha, you have a point there. It's funny how everyone thinks Biden is a magic bullet now...he's certainly made his fair share of campaign mistakes.

Yeah, with the minor things the media has been able to tag Hillary with; it isn't really hard to imagine them bringing Biden/Sanders/any D down to Trump's level with the right reporting.

Stop to give a magical power to media. You're being mediaphobic! No-no!

media brought us obama and trump in the first place. ^^

[ApatheticAustrian]

nevertrump has always been an elite project...and maybe its a sign of the difference between the philosophy of the republican party and its common members.

the strange thing is, in my opinion, that trump is the anti-thesis to decaded of, pardon, liberty-humping.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i have never understood the "motivation gap".

especially if my "enemy" is extremely motivated and divisive and the heritage of the obama achievements and the first liberal supreme court majority since decades is at least possible.

reminds me of the silliness of the 2010 results which in fact ended the possibilities of obama to do anything important at all.

[ApatheticAustrian]

america is not stupid.

the people of the US are just not exceptional anymore ....the same waves as in good old europe.

[ApatheticAustrian]

no so sure about that.....in the end, i guess, the millenials are going to vote overwhelmingly for her, but i think the amount of previous non-voters who are going to trump is going to out-balance it again.

anyone here who thinks that bernie would have done better at this point? i politely disagree - for at least 2-3 more election cycles the democratic party isn't able to reach a majority without their remaining blue collar strongholds and bernie would have, in my opinion, alienated the sub-urban voters too.

clinton is, kind of, the perfect compromise candidate she is just not gifted and baggage-less enough, imho, to pull it off in an authentic way.

the real problem for the democratic party, on the long run, could be the......exchange of traditionally voting blue-collar party of the electorate against educated people who are easier to alienate with populism and young people who are ripe to inflame with populism.....the classical blue-collar voter may die in 10 or 20 years and be gone forever, but for the near future, this would make the electoral college hostile to democrats AND kill unionized america for good. (the blue-collar republicans just don't see to care about this fact at all and neither walker nor snyder seem to pay for it on the long run.)

[ApatheticAustrian]

if WI/MI//NH are more or less safe (and ofc PA and NM), everything could still work out nice for clinton.

there is just too much noise right now and this 50 states polls with all their weird non-results are making any sane debate (imho) impossible.

hopefully all the sound will clear at the end of this month and a reasonable number of high-quality state polls is going give us a believable average for each visible battleground.

(i don't believe that IO/NV/OH/FL will be clear anytime soon....NC seems to crawl back into the republican area)

[ApatheticAustrian]

It really is disappointing to see how much she is trying to win over some Republicans, even going so far as to wrangle up endorsements from Bush administration officials that liberals hate, all for basically nothing. It's not helping her and I don't understand why her campaign doesn't see this

oh, i think this strategy would have worked, regarding trump's extreme attics to alienate most of "his own" party, with many other democrats....for example mister kaine (not sure about obama)....but the clintons have been vilified inside the "vast right-wing conspiracy" for such a long time and on so many different levels that in the end most of those intellectual or ideological republicans are still going to hold their nose and vote against the candidate who ....honestly....would be more conservative (contrary to "right-wing") than mister trump.

and in fact.....republicans have lost for such a long time at the presidential level that they are going to vote for everyone who can win.....tightening the polls is going to drive even more republicans to mister trump while bad polls would not have been so sexy for them, i guess.

[ApatheticAustrian]

VA 13 replaces NV & Iowa as blue wall. But Clinton and McGinty are surviving the Toomey challenge 😁

besides ohio and maybe florida, it would really surprise me if the republicans would hold their senate seats in NH/il/WI/PA even while all those states go for clinton....even if the polls say otherwise now or are at leaster closer than we would tink.

and VA is going to be fine.....the strange polling in CO (and NM xD) is more "interesting" right now.

[ApatheticAustrian]

mister garland? but but....mister mcconell said, he would not be confirmed during the lame duck period.....why would anyone not believe him? i am sure the future senate minority leader is going to prefer a clinton-chosen forty-something male latino judge on the court.

[ApatheticAustrian]

it's true that europe is not spending enough on its military but there is also a lot of waste from double and tripple structures.....an united EU army would use the ressources in a much more effective way but the problem is the member states of the EU are not on the same site regarding military cooperation...and don't get me even started on the UK, which stopped any kind of move in that area for years and years......

the big problem in fact would not even be the money...but the mindset and the will.

europe hates, loathes, rejects war ...besides maybe france, which is kind of the king of all ironic twists, regarding their stereotype.

eastern european countries sure would love to have some kind of binding anti-russia alliance besides the NATO but it is not going to happen. UK, the biggest enemy of moscow in all of europe, is gone from the alliance and the german heart of europe would prefer russia as an economic partner and not a sworn enemy.

if the US votes for trump and trump does what he proposed (dwarfening or killing NATO or turn it into a pay-for-play-alliance) than question of baltic autonomy is surely a matter of submission to russia....but even now many voices have disagreed if "the west" in fact would do anything for some small, nearly unknown country in case of an invasion. (during the last years the russian have preferred economical colonialism anyway.)

to summarize it: it is not that europe, if united, couldn't withstand russia regarding a "normal" (non-nuclear) military confrontation. it is more like that we don't want at all and are lazy and have lost all ideals would prefer a safe seat in fron of the oven instead of some risky war.

[ApatheticAustrian]

i repeat myself..... on what base at all should debates be able to kill trump?

maybe a high-energy hillary can reclaim the youth vote and/or energie her own party but telling the public something new about trump could be kind of impossible at this point.