Youth Vote

[Buffalo Bill]

Among 18-20 year olds Obama lost to Romney.  What can Democrats do to stop this conservative Republican trend among youth?  Is it too late for them?

[AGA]

Where did you find that Obama lost 18-20 year-olds? I could only find the exit poll data for 18-24 year-olds, of which Obama won 60-36.

[Boston Bread]

A small sample in an exit poll from 2012 may be unreliable. There needs to be more data than just that to reach a conclusion.

We can look at exit polls of the 2016 primaries. Exit polls in the 2016 primaries suggest Bernie Sanders got more votes from 18-30-year-olds than every Republican candidate combined. So the 18-24 age group (would have been 14-20 in 2012) probably also voted mostly in the Democratic primary.

If there is a Republican trend with younger millennials/Gen Z this election, we should observe a swing towards Trump in college campuses in this election.

[Buffalo Bill]

A small sample in an exit poll from 2012 may be unreliable. There needs to be more data than just that to reach a conclusion.

We can look at exit polls of the 2016 primaries. Exit polls in the 2016 primaries suggest Bernie Sanders got more votes from 18-30-year-olds than every Republican candidate combined. So the 18-24 age group (would have been 14-20 in 2012) probably also voted mostly in the Democratic primary.

If there is a Republican trend with younger millennials/Gen Z this election, we should observe a swing towards Trump in college campuses in this election.

Well sure but they need to actually vote in the general election too.  Many of them will get drunk and stay in their dorms, go look for chicks, not want to go out in the rain, and don't forget some will have to wait in line as long as 5-10 minutes when it's below 50 degrees in some of the battleground states.  Sure they have their cell phones to play pokemon on but that will get boring and eventually many will go back to school and hope someone else cast a vote for them.

[Virginiá]

Among 18-20 year olds Obama lost to Romney.  What can Democrats do to stop this conservative Republican trend among youth?  Is it too late for them?

Voting like that in one presidential election doesn't really signify a lasting trend. Partisan loyalties are heavily influenced between 18 - 29, which the propensity to change getting smaller with each passing year. It's the same for things other than politics as well. Most people develop habits early on. If these young adults keep voting that way, then it might be an issue. It's worth noting that 20 year olds were not as Republican as the 18/19 year olds, either. I suppose it's not surprising these voters broke for Romney - they aged into the electorate after a bad recession and during a slow recovery, with their parents ranting about how bad Obamacare was (but how great PPACA was!). Obama had to absorb a lot of (imo, undeserved) blame for the recovery, since we were still bleeding jobs in 2009.

However, also note that the Pew data released the other day showed an uptick in support from the 18-24 demographic, so the youngest voting bloc actually appear to be more Democratic this year than they were in 2012. That is how they are identifying anyway - they still seem likely to break 3rd party this year, but the point is that young people do not seem to be trending Republican much at all. I still believe Republicans have likely lost a huge majority of the Millennial generation and if they do not change, they will probably begin losing Gen Z as well, even if not as bad.

Where did you find that Obama lost 18-20 year-olds? I could only find the exit poll data for 18-24 year-olds, of which Obama won 60-36.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/10/democrats-have-a-young-people-problem-too/

18 year olds: 57% Romney
19 year olds: 59% Romney
20 year olds: 54% Romney
21+ >50% Obama

[Person Man]

A small sample in an exit poll from 2012 may be unreliable. There needs to be more data than just that to reach a conclusion.

We can look at exit polls of the 2016 primaries. Exit polls in the 2016 primaries suggest Bernie Sanders got more votes from 18-30-year-olds than every Republican candidate combined. So the 18-24 age group (would have been 14-20 in 2012) probably also voted mostly in the Democratic primary.

If there is a Republican trend with younger millennials/Gen Z this election, we should observe a swing towards Trump in college campuses in this election.

Well sure but they need to actually vote in the general election too.  Many of them will get drunk and stay in their dorms, go look for chicks, not want to go out in the rain, and don't forget some will have to wait in line as long as 5-10 minutes when it's below 50 degrees in some of the battleground states.  Sure they have their cell phones to play pokemon on but that will get boring and eventually many will go back to school and hope someone else cast a vote for them.

Aren't you spicy?

Among 18-20 year olds Obama lost to Romney.  What can Democrats do to stop this conservative Republican trend among youth?  Is it too late for them?

Voting like that in one presidential election doesn't really signify a lasting trend. Partisan loyalties are heavily influenced between 18 - 29, which the propensity to change getting smaller with each passing year. It's the same for things other than politics as well. Most people develop habits early on. If these young adults keep voting that way, then it might be an issue. It's worth noting that 20 year olds were not as Republican as the 18/19 year olds, either. I suppose it's not surprising these voters broke for Romney - they aged into the electorate after a bad recession and during a slow recovery, with their parents ranting about how bad Obamacare was (but how great PPACA was!). Obama had to absorb a lot of (imo, undeserved) blame for the recovery, since we were still bleeding jobs in 2009.

However, also note that the Pew data released the other day showed an uptick in support from the 18-24 demographic, so the youngest voting bloc actually appear to be more Democratic this year than they were in 2012. That is how they are identifying anyway - they still seem likely to break 3rd party this year, but the point is that young people do not seem to be trending Republican much at all. I still believe Republicans have likely lost a huge majority of the Millennial generation and if they do not change, they will probably begin losing Gen Z as well, even if not as bad.

Where did you find that Obama lost 18-20 year-olds? I could only find the exit poll data for 18-24 year-olds, of which Obama won 60-36.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/10/democrats-have-a-young-people-problem-too/

18 year olds: 57% Romney
19 year olds: 59% Romney
20 year olds: 54% Romney
21+ >50% Obama

Then that means 22-24 year olds voted like 70% Obama?

[Virginiá]

Then that means 22-24 year olds voted like 70% Obama?

You know, I am really not sure. The younger the voter gets, the lower their turnout, and exit polls had both 18-24 yr olds and 25-29 year olds both at 60% Obama, so the 21-24 year olds must have skewed it quite a bit with both higher turnout and much higher support. However, recall in the last Pew thread that 18-24 support was actually higher for Democrats in general this cycle, which implies that many of those Romney young voters didn't stick with Republicans, but are arguably more malleable in their political leanings for now.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

Makes me wonder exactly how low the 18-20 turnout was, or whether those pro-Romney 18-20 year old poll numbers were not quite right?

Anyway, given current, up-to-date data, Republicans should be even more afraid of the electoral disaster that awaits them when Millennials begin making up a majority of the electorate in 2020+

[Buffalo Bill]

Then that means 22-24 year olds voted like 70% Obama?

You know, I am really not sure. The younger the voter gets, the lower their turnout, and exit polls had both 18-24 yr olds and 25-29 year olds both at 60% Obama, so the 21-24 year olds must have skewed it quite a bit with both higher turnout and much higher support. However, recall in the last Pew thread that 18-24 support was actually higher for Democrats in general this cycle, which implies that many of those Romney young voters didn't stick with Republicans, but are arguably more malleable in their political leanings for now.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/president/

Makes me wonder exactly how low the 18-20 turnout was, or whether those pro-Romney 18-20 year old poll numbers were not quite right?

Anyway, given current, up-to-date data, Republicans should be even more afraid of the electoral disaster that awaits them when Millennials begin making up a majority of the electorate in 2020+

Oh I love it when Democrats take the bait.  The only good thing about young people (under 25) is that they get old.

[Virginiá]

Oh I love it when Democrats take the bait.  The only good thing about young people (under 25) is that they get old.

[Person Man]

Oh I love it when Democrats take the bait.  The only good thing about young people (under 25) is that they get old.

Is that a universal thing? If it is...apply it to a 19-year Trump supported, by 25 or 30, he will be a deplorable...imagine what he will be by 40.

[Buffalo Bill]

Oh I love it when Democrats take the bait.  The only good thing about young people (under 25) is that they get old.

Is that a universal thing? If it is...apply it to a 19-year Trump supported, by 25 or 30, he will be a deplorable...imagine what he will be by 40.

Universal is bad.

[Young Conservative]

I find it interesting that Cruz won young voters overwhelmingly in the GOP primary, indicating a rightward jolt of the GOP electorate 

[Sumner 1868]

I find it interesting that Cruz won young voters overwhelmingly in the GOP primary, indicating a rightward jolt of the GOP electorate 

Nah, it's just that the youth aren't big fans of Drumpf.

[Mr. Morden]

I find it interesting that Cruz won young voters overwhelmingly in the GOP primary, indicating a rightward jolt of the GOP electorate 

Nah, it's just that the youth aren't big fans of Drumpf.

Which is funny, because early on in the campaign (say, the latter half of 2015, well before the primaries actually started) the GOP primary polling had Trump doing better with youngs than olds.  Then it suddenly flipped for some reason.

[Person Man]

Oh I love it when Democrats take the bait.  The only good thing about young people (under 25) is that they get old.

Is that a universal thing? If it is...apply it to a 19-year Trump supported, by 25 or 30, he will be a deplorable...imagine what he will be by 40.

Universal is bad.

Do you even know what I am satirically trying to imply?

[Nyvin]

I find it interesting that Cruz won young voters overwhelmingly in the GOP primary, indicating a rightward jolt of the GOP electorate  

I thought it was Rand who was the star with young voters on the Republican side.

[Nyvin]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/10/democrats-have-a-young-people-problem-too/

18 year olds: 57% Romney
19 year olds: 59% Romney
20 year olds: 54% Romney
21+ >50% Obama

How is that possible when Obama won 18-24 by like a 20 point margin???   Are 21-24 year olds just the most progressive, left wing age group in the country or something?

[Virginiá]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/10/democrats-have-a-young-people-problem-too/

18 year olds: 57% Romney
19 year olds: 59% Romney
20 year olds: 54% Romney
21+ >50% Obama

How is that possible when Obama won 18-24 by like a 20 point margin???   Are 21-24 year olds just the most progressive, left wing age group in the country or something?

I'm not sure. As I stated above, it either has to be a combination of 18-20 year olds having bad turnout rates with 21-24 having very high support for Obama and better turnout rates. Off the top of my head, I'm not sure what the math would need to be for 21-24 to pick up that kind of slack. I don't have the poll numbers for those ages, either.

Also, it is possible that these numbers are off. Not to say Romney didn't win them, but maybe he didn't win them by as much. I don't know how big the sample was for these ages, but it could have a pretty decent margin of error. Don't quote me on this, though, I'm just musing.

In the end, I wouldn't get too hung up on the ramifications of that election's results for those ages. These are prime ages where young adults figure out their political views, and they could easily turn more Democratic or (more) Republican. At this time, the 18-20 bloc from 2012 would be 22-24 now, so if the 18-24 bloc for this election still holds very low support for Republicans, then those Romney kids either turned on Republicans or the the new 18-20 crowd is significantly more anti-Republican. This won't be as good of a year for comparisons, though, as many Millennials appear to be breaking for third parties. It doesn't mean they are less Democratic, though. They just don't like Clinton.

I'd pay more attention to both the difference in support between Trump/Clinton, and more importantly, how young voters vote in House elections. If they are indeed more/less Democratic, we can use the House vote statistics since the presidential race has its own issues right now.

[Buffalo Bill]

I can see their wheels spinning now.

[Person Man]

What does it mean to the parties if Democrats start having a youth problem? (That they are not voting as Democratic as they used to).

[Virginiá]

What does it mean to the parties if Democrats start having a youth problem? (That they are not voting as Democratic as they used to).

Obama won in 2012 by winning the 18 - 39 age group by a large majority. He lost every other age group, but only losing the 40 - 64 group by 5-6 points was important too.

Millennials wouldn't suddenly stop being Democrats in one election (though a landslide by a Republican could draw them in just for that 1 election). I'll proceed as if you're asking what would happen if the youngest voters stopped being Democrats and most of the successive young voters that entered the electorate was at least slightly more Republican:

1. Democrats would still command large support from a big portion of older Millennials
2. It's a double-edged sword: As young Republicans age into the electorate, heavily Republican silent generation voters (ages 70-75+) die off, therefor balancing things out. Young voters have far worse turnout rates than older voters, so it's actually somewhat worse off for Republicans in the short term
3. As the trend from #2 continues, older Republicans continue dying off and are replaced by low turnout young Republicans with possibly less strong support, existing Democrats continue to grow older, increasing their turnout and bolstering Democratic support
4. Eventually as enough time passes, Democrats end up where Republicans are, with lots of older voters and less younger voters. It's important to note that Republicans have done exceptionally bad with young voters due to racial diversity, so I wouldn't count on the GOP getting the same strong support from young voters in the future (tho its possible for sure)
5. Eventually Republicans might establish a presidential election advantage while Democrats claim midterms - The reverse of what is happening now. This is due to the age of each coalition's voters, but also depends on geographic distribution as well, so it's hard to say for sure.

However #5 isn't guaranteed. Unless the youngest new voters have wildly different visions of America, the young voters will likely stay split between the parties more or less for a time until one party can establish the most appeal to them. It's entirely possible they could swing back to Democrats after a decade or two, or swing hard to Republicans. Impossible to say for sure.

My list above is mostly born from historical voting patterns - This is generally how American elections have progressed, with one or more generations breaking from a party and eventually exerting control once the older generations who backed the other party died off. The cycle sort of repeats itself in various ways over time. It doesn't always happen this way, and there can be large shifts in between, but partisan loyalties are remarkably resilient even in the face of time.

[Person Man]

What does it mean to the parties if Democrats start having a youth problem? (That they are not voting as Democratic as they used to).

Obama won in 2012 by winning the 18 - 39 age group by a large majority. He lost every other age group, but only losing the 40 - 64 group by 5-6 points was important too.

Millennials wouldn't suddenly stop being Democrats in one election (though a landslide by a Republican could draw them in just for that 1 election). I'll proceed as if you're asking what would happen if the youngest voters stopped being Democrats and most of the successive young voters that entered the electorate was at least slightly more Republican:

1. Democrats would still command large support from a big portion of older Millennials
2. It's a double-edged sword: As young Republicans age into the electorate, heavily Republican silent generation voters (ages 70-75+) die off, therefor balancing things out. Young voters have far worse turnout rates than older voters, so it's actually somewhat worse off for Republicans in the short term
3. As the trend from #2 continues, older Republicans continue dying off and are replaced by low turnout young Republicans with possibly less strong support, existing Democrats continue to grow older, increasing their turnout and bolstering Democratic support
4. Eventually as enough time passes, Democrats end up where Republicans are, with lots of older voters and less younger voters. It's important to note that Republicans have done exceptionally bad with young voters due to racial diversity, so I wouldn't count on the GOP getting the same strong support from young voters in the future (tho its possible for sure)
5. Eventually Republicans might establish a presidential election advantage while Democrats claim midterms - The reverse of what is happening now. This is due to the age of each coalition's voters, but also depends on geographic distribution as well, so it's hard to say for sure.

However #5 isn't guaranteed. Unless the youngest new voters have wildly different visions of America, the young voters will likely stay split between the parties more or less for a time until one party can establish the most appeal to them. It's entirely possible they could swing back to Democrats after a decade or two, or swing hard to Republicans. Impossible to say for sure.

My list above is mostly born from historical voting patterns - This is generally how American elections have progressed, with one or more generations breaking from a party and eventually exerting control once the older generations who backed the other party died off. The cycle sort of repeats itself in various ways over time. It doesn't always happen this way, and there can be large shifts in between, but partisan loyalties are remarkably resilient even in the face of time.

Provided that both parties have enough votes to stay competitive at the national level. One thing that will be interesting is how the platforms and maps will change as a result.

[hopper]

What does it mean to the parties if Democrats start having a youth problem? (That they are not voting as Democratic as they used to).

4. Eventually as enough time passes, Democrats end up where Republicans are, with lots of older voters and less younger voters. It's important to note that Republicans have done exceptionally bad with young voters due to racial diversity, so I wouldn't count on the GOP getting the same strong support from young voters in the future (tho its possible for sure)
[

You are half-right. Most of the minority population growth has been ethnic and not racial(i.e. Mexican-Americans) who are categorized as "Hispanic" in the US Census. True the Republicans would have still lost in 2012 if 0 Hispanics voted because of the Black Vote in Ohio and Virginia. The Black Population has hardly grown in the past 50-60 years as a % of the US Population.

[hopper]

Whats funny is there was never really an age difference in voting for the Democrat Candidate in Presidential Elections until 2008 except for 1972. Pew Research's voter/age graphic goes from 1972-2012 for the record.. When I eliminate 1972, 2008, and 2012 the following margins for the Dem Presidential Candidate go like this with ages 18-29 and the rest were pretty much tied meaning there was no difference in how all age groups voted for the Dem Presidential Candidate.

1980 D+6
1996 D+5
2004 D+7