NC - Civitas: Tied
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Author Topic: NC - Civitas: Tied  (Read 2546 times)
Fusionmunster
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« on: September 15, 2016, 08:48:07 AM »

Trump - 42%
Clinton - 42%
Johnson - 5%
https://www.nccivitas.org/2016/new-civitas-poll-shows-trump-and-hillary-in-dead-heat/
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1 on: September 15, 2016, 08:50:53 AM »

Who would imagine NC is to the left of FL and OH?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2016, 08:52:02 AM »

Yea, the GOP is doomed this cycle in NC.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2016, 08:52:25 AM »

Plausible, but I'll wait for PPP here.

Yea, the GOP is doomed this cycle in NC.

McCrory is up 2 in this poll.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2016, 08:52:41 AM »

Yea, the GOP is doomed this cycle in NC.
Lol, stop it.
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2016, 08:53:54 AM »

Who would imagine NC is to the left of FL and OH?
This is a believable poll.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2016, 08:53:59 AM »


No, I'm serious. If Trump can't lead here at his peak this cycle, he won't lead here.

HB2 and how the local GOP has handled it there has done incredible damage to their entire image.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2016, 08:55:45 AM »

While I think this race is very close and a tie (or even marginal Trump lead, as 538 adjusted it) is plausible, it should be pointed out that this pollster also found a narrow lead for McCrory, so a major grain of salt. I highly doubt McCrory outperforms Trump - in fact, I expect the opposite, in a reverse of what we see in other states.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2016, 08:57:35 AM »

So if the polls taken recently are to be believed, we could be looking at this on election day?



Doubtful.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2016, 08:58:01 AM »


No, I'm serious. If Trump can't lead here at his peak this cycle, he won't lead here.

HB2 and how the local GOP has handled it there has done incredible damage to their entire image.
Stop concentrating on single polls. For God sake. Trump is gaining everywhere. It is all we can say right now.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2016, 09:08:53 AM »

The coasts could save us from Trump.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2016, 09:11:26 AM »

Oversampled Democrats too much.
Civitas(9/11-9/12) 600 LV: DEM 44% REP 31% IND 25%
https://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/September-2016-Release-Crosstabs-pres-guv.pdf

2012 Exit Poll(NC)
DEM 39% REP 33% IND 29%

#UnskewthePoll as 2012 Exit Poll

TRUMP: DEM(39%)x21% + REP(33%)x73% + IND(25%)x42% = 42.78%
Hillary:DEM(39%)x69% + REP(33%)x9% + IND(25%)x36% = 38.88%
Johnson: DEM(39%)x1% + REP(33%)x9% + IND(25%)x7% = 5.11%

Wink



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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2016, 09:13:56 AM »

You forgot to mention that even Liberal's hero Nate Silver adjusted it to Trump +1

Grin Grin Grin
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2016, 09:16:25 AM »

viriginia, colorado and NC would kill trump even if most of the electorate from 2004 returns.

i would kill atm for good (non-50-states BS) polls from WI/MI....PA seems to hold anyway.

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2016, 09:24:18 AM »

Oh God StatesPoll is back.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2016, 11:47:33 AM »

Hard to believe that NC could end up to the left of FL, but if polls are to be believed, it could be quite close to the tipping point, in this election.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2016, 12:30:11 PM »

Hard to believe that NC could end up to the left of FL, but if polls are to be believed, it could be quite close to the tipping point, in this election.
Please, stop to look at single polls.

Now-cast 538:



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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2016, 12:32:06 PM »

u wot m8
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Shadows
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« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2016, 12:50:24 PM »

As already said terrible demographic & this is a horrible poll for Clinton.

Crosstabs show her winning only 69% of the Dem vote while Trump has 21% of the Dem vote which would make it Trump's best performance among Dems in the country -  21% is pretty big.

Hillary has 9% of the GOP vote, considering Dems are more in number 21% is damaging.

I think unskewing this poll will give a 4% odd margin atleast which will make it between FL & OH!
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #19 on: September 16, 2016, 04:06:14 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2016, 04:08:58 PM by John Ewards »

As already said terrible demographic & this is a horrible poll for Clinton.

Crosstabs show her winning only 69% of the Dem vote while Trump has 21% of the Dem vote which would make it Trump's best performance among Dems in the country -  21% is pretty big.

Hillary has 9% of the GOP vote, considering Dems are more in number 21% is damaging.

I think unskewing this poll will give a 4% odd margin atleast which will make it between FL & OH!
LOL @ people who still think "unskewing" is a real thing. I thought you learned from 2012? Or does it only work in years divisible by 7? Roll Eyes
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KingSweden
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« Reply #20 on: September 16, 2016, 04:12:37 PM »

As already said terrible demographic & this is a horrible poll for Clinton.

Crosstabs show her winning only 69% of the Dem vote while Trump has 21% of the Dem vote which would make it Trump's best performance among Dems in the country -  21% is pretty big.

Hillary has 9% of the GOP vote, considering Dems are more in number 21% is damaging.

I think unskewing this poll will give a 4% odd margin atleast which will make it between FL & OH!

Also, a lot of D crossover votes in the South. People voting R for years but still Ds technically
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