Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

The long soap opera called Caixa Geral de Depósitos (public bank) pretty much ended today. The newly appointed President of the bank, António Rogrigues, resigned after realising he doesn't have the support of the government and the President of the Republic even if he had revealed his tax returns. Despite of this, his term as president will only end in late-December and a new president for the bank will probably be known in late January or early February 2017.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-11-27-Antonio-Domingues-demitiu-se-da-Caixa-Geral-de-Depositos-1

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for the European Institute of the Faculty of Law of Lisbon

Do you think that Portugal should continue in the Euro?

Yes: 89.7%
No: 6.7%
DK: 3.6%

Do you think that the European Union will survive the current crisis?

Yes: 64.6%
No: 20.5%
DK: 14.9%

Do you think that the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union has consequences for Portugal?

Yes: 55.9%
No: 29.5%
DK: 14.6%

Do you agree with the reception of refugees?

Yes: 73.0%
No: 18.7%
DK: 8.3%

Conducted between 2 and 3 November. Polled 1,016 voters. MoE of 3.07%

http://institutoeuropeu.eu/noticias/noticias-do-instituto-europeu/432-sondagem-o-que-os-portugueses-pensam-sobre-a-integracao-europeia

[Mike88]

Fonebus poll for Marktest: Trump presidency - Portuguese anticipate negative impact for Europe.

In your opinion, Donald's Trump presidency will have, for Europe, what kind of impact:

Negative: 38%
Very Negative: 19%
Neither Positive or Negative: 16%
Positive: 5%
DK: 22%

In your opinion, Donald's Trump presidency will have, for Portugal, what kind of impact:

Neither Positive or Negative: 33%
Negative: 31%
Very Negative: 8%
Positive: 4%
DK: 24%

Conducted between 16 and 20 November. Polled 800 voters. MoE of 3.46%

http://www.marktest.com/wap/a/n/id~2178.aspx

[Mike88]

The college degrees fiasco continues to roll heads in the government. Today a total of 2 secretaries, one from the ministry of Parliament Affairs and another from the Ministry of the Sea, have resigned after an inspection of all curriculum's of secretaries order by the government, showed that they made up or lied about their college degrees. The secretary from the Ministry of Parliament Affair, called herself as licensed and with Bachelor degree, but when asked to prove it she said she had no way to prove it. The other one from the Ministry of the Sea, didn't lied about his degree but he wrote is his appointment order that he in 2005 enrolled in the Lusofona University but because of intense professional activity, he couldn't show up in class. Apparently this went viral in social media after the 1st college fisaco in september as a proof of the lack of rigor in António Costa's cabinet. The Sea minister didn't like this reference and she asked the secretary to resign.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/revista-de-imprensa/2016-11-30-Mais-duas-baixas-no-Governo-por-causa-das-licenciaturas

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

Interesting.
Could any PS candidate even possibly win in 2017, even if they are tainted by this guy?

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

Interesting.
Could any PS candidate even possibly win in 2017, even if they are tainted by this guy?

Well, it could be possible. In today's politics anything in possible. However it's very unlikely. The PS barely won it in 2013, year of the big upheaval against the PSD, and because of this scandal i think it's very difficult for PS to find someone who could win.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

Interesting.
Could any PS candidate even possibly win in 2017, even if they are tainted by this guy?

Well, it could be possible. In today's politics anything in possible. However it's very unlikely. The PS barely won it in 2013, year of the big upheaval against the PSD, and because of this scandal i think it's very difficult for PS to find someone who could win.

How will national conditions affect the result?

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

Interesting.
Could any PS candidate even possibly win in 2017, even if they are tainted by this guy?

Well, it could be possible. In today's politics anything in possible. However it's very unlikely. The PS barely won it in 2013, year of the big upheaval against the PSD, and because of this scandal i think it's very difficult for PS to find someone who could win.

How will national conditions affect the result?

In Ourém, not much. Both vitories for the PS were quite close. In 2009 they won by 4% and in 2013 by only 0.51%! The trend here seems to be favourable to the PSD.
2013 was a terrible year for the PSD because of many reasons, the 2013 summer crisis was one of them, but mainly the term limits that were imposed came in full effect that year and the PSD was the most affected. Of course there was also a huge division in the party and in many cities the party divided it's votes between various candidates causing the PSD to lose some important cities. I don't know how the national scene will be in one year, honestly. A year ago the PS was rocked by losing the election to the PSD/CDS but now they're in government and rising in the polls.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

Interesting.
Could any PS candidate even possibly win in 2017, even if they are tainted by this guy?

Well, it could be possible. In today's politics anything in possible. However it's very unlikely. The PS barely won it in 2013, year of the big upheaval against the PSD, and because of this scandal i think it's very difficult for PS to find someone who could win.

How will national conditions affect the result?

In Ourém, not much. Both vitories for the PS were quite close. In 2009 they won by 4% and in 2013 by only 0.51%! The trend here seems to be favourable to the PSD.
2013 was a terrible year for the PSD because of many reasons, the 2013 summer crisis was one of them, but mainly the term limits that were imposed came in full effect that year and the PSD was the most affected. Of course there was also a huge division in the party and in many cities the party it's their votes between various candidates causing the PSD to lose some important cities. I don't know how the national scene will be in one year, honestly. A year ago the PS was rocked by losing the election to the PSD/CDS but now they're in government and rising in the polls.

You could say that Portugal is under "eternal 2016" conditions .

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

Interesting.
Could any PS candidate even possibly win in 2017, even if they are tainted by this guy?

Well, it could be possible. In today's politics anything in possible. However it's very unlikely. The PS barely won it in 2013, year of the big upheaval against the PSD, and because of this scandal i think it's very difficult for PS to find someone who could win.

How will national conditions affect the result?

In Ourém, not much. Both vitories for the PS were quite close. In 2009 they won by 4% and in 2013 by only 0.51%! The trend here seems to be favourable to the PSD.
2013 was a terrible year for the PSD because of many reasons, the 2013 summer crisis was one of them, but mainly the term limits that were imposed came in full effect that year and the PSD was the most affected. Of course there was also a huge division in the party and in many cities the party it's their votes between various candidates causing the PSD to lose some important cities. I don't know how the national scene will be in one year, honestly. A year ago the PS was rocked by losing the election to the PSD/CDS but now they're in government and rising in the polls.

You could say that Portugal is under "eternal 2016" conditions .

Well ... you could put it that way but, at the same time, we still have a lot of economic problems and any worldwide shock, or even european, would hurt us very deeply. We are still very vulnerable.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

Interesting.
Could any PS candidate even possibly win in 2017, even if they are tainted by this guy?

Well, it could be possible. In today's politics anything in possible. However it's very unlikely. The PS barely won it in 2013, year of the big upheaval against the PSD, and because of this scandal i think it's very difficult for PS to find someone who could win.

How will national conditions affect the result?

In Ourém, not much. Both vitories for the PS were quite close. In 2009 they won by 4% and in 2013 by only 0.51%! The trend here seems to be favourable to the PSD.
2013 was a terrible year for the PSD because of many reasons, the 2013 summer crisis was one of them, but mainly the term limits that were imposed came in full effect that year and the PSD was the most affected. Of course there was also a huge division in the party and in many cities the party it's their votes between various candidates causing the PSD to lose some important cities. I don't know how the national scene will be in one year, honestly. A year ago the PS was rocked by losing the election to the PSD/CDS but now they're in government and rising in the polls.

You could say that Portugal is under "eternal 2016" conditions .

Well ... you could put it that way but, at the same time, we still have a lot of economic problems and any worldwide shock, or even european, would hurt us very deeply. We are still very vulnerable.

Yeah.
What was the last epoch Portueguese remembered to be great anyway? Early-mid 2000s?

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The mayor of Ourém, Paulo Fonseca (PS), is on the verge of be thrown out of office and forbidden to run in the 2017 election due to corruption charges. Apparently the mayor is involved in many bankruptcy dealings and most recently a local business man says be was cheated by the mayor. In this story, a local business man made a loan to the mayor of around 350k euros to save the company in which he was a partner. In this agreement, the local business man would get 50% of the company shares and that he would be repaid. But the man never had any shares and all the checks he received were returned by the bank.

Ourém, which is a big bastion of the PSD in general elections, could fall again in the PSD hands after losing it in 2009.

http://observador.pt/2016/12/01/presidente-de-camara-do-ps-em-risco-de-perda-de-mandato-por-estar-insolvente/

Interesting.
Could any PS candidate even possibly win in 2017, even if they are tainted by this guy?

Well, it could be possible. In today's politics anything in possible. However it's very unlikely. The PS barely won it in 2013, year of the big upheaval against the PSD, and because of this scandal i think it's very difficult for PS to find someone who could win.

How will national conditions affect the result?

In Ourém, not much. Both vitories for the PS were quite close. In 2009 they won by 4% and in 2013 by only 0.51%! The trend here seems to be favourable to the PSD.
2013 was a terrible year for the PSD because of many reasons, the 2013 summer crisis was one of them, but mainly the term limits that were imposed came in full effect that year and the PSD was the most affected. Of course there was also a huge division in the party and in many cities the party it's their votes between various candidates causing the PSD to lose some important cities. I don't know how the national scene will be in one year, honestly. A year ago the PS was rocked by losing the election to the PSD/CDS but now they're in government and rising in the polls.

You could say that Portugal is under "eternal 2016" conditions .

Well ... you could put it that way but, at the same time, we still have a lot of economic problems and any worldwide shock, or even european, would hurt us very deeply. We are still very vulnerable.

Yeah.
What was the last epoch Portueguese remembered to be great anyway? Early-mid 2000s?

No, it was mainly between 1987 and 1999. It was the time of the "fat cows", when fresh money from the EU helped develop the economy, infrastructure, living conditions and everybody was happy and full of hope. But then, the bill arrived and... well... the rest is history.

[Mike88]

New update about the 2017 local elections:

Pedro Santana Lopes, former mayor of Figueira da Foz and Lisbon and former PSD prime minister, revealed to expresso newspaper that he will not be a candidate in the election for Lisbon.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-01-Santana-ao-Expresso-Nao-serei-candidato-a-Camara-de-Lisboa

[Mike88]

As expected, the new president of the Caixa Geral de Depósitos (public bank) will be the former health minister from the PSD/CDS government Paulo Macedo. With this choice, the long drama about the public bank is now, finally, over.

On the political stage, today started the 20th congress of the Communist Party. Nothing new will be said in this congress, where the PCP will raise their flags about the nationalization of banks, Portugal's exit from the euro and EU, the end of the big capital, etc.

On the other hand, the PCP manifesto for the congress raises the dire financial situation of the party. They are losing members and have a debt of more than a 1,000,000 euros while 4 years ago they had debt of around 200k euros.

http://observador.pt/2016/09/26/pcp-reconhece-situacao-financeira-insustentavel-nas-teses-ao-congresso/

[Mike88]

1st part of the December Aximage poll released.

About the PSD leadership election in 2018, Rui Rio is popular in the electorate as a whole but not so much in the PSD electorate.

Q: Who is the best to lead the PSD?

All voters:

Rui Rio: 60.3%
Passos Coelho: 16.5%
Santana Lopes: 10.8%
Luís Montenegro: 6.5%
DK: 5.9%

PSD voters

Rui Rio: 43.6%
Passos Coelho: 40.7%
Luís Montenegro: 10.6%
Santana Lopes: 3.2%
DK: 1.9%

http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/rui-rui-mais-desejado-no-pais-do-que-no-psd?ref=HP_DestaquesdebaixoNegociosTV

[Mike88]

Ok, update on the political scene here:

About the 2017 local elections, we may see the return of the "dinosaurs". Former disgrace mayors Isaltino Morais, Valentim Loureiro and Narciso Miranda are considering running again in their cities, Oeiras, Gondomar and Matosinhos respectively. These 3 have a long history involving corruption accusations and in fact Isaltino Morais was actually jailed for several years. They were quite popular in the past but not sure if today they would attract a significant amount of voters. Let's wait and see.

https://www.publico.pt/2016/12/09/politica/noticia/isaltino-valentim-e-narciso-podem-estar-de-regresso-em-2017-1754079

About the "supposed" PSD leadership contest, the press is throwing every day news and reports that someone new is considering running for the leadership. Most of them are complete nonsense, Santana Lopes and Marques Mendes don't have the slightest chance, nor does Morais Sarmento for God sake. The only real alternative is Rui Rio and even him should be careful. Polls show that he's popular but the PSD voters don't think it's time for a leadership contest, only in 2018. If Rio makes the same move against Passos next year like what Costa did to António José Seguro in 2014, he may have a bad surprise.

http://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/537586/psd-indefinicao-nas-autarquicas-acelera-movimentacoes-contra-passos-

[Mike88]

For anyone interested, here's 3 articles about the 2015 post election inquiry conducted by GfK Portugal and led by one of Portugal's proeminent pollsters, Pedro Magalhães.

1. The austerity in the 2015 elections
http://www.pedro-magalhaes.org/a-austeridade-nas-eleicoes-de-2015/

2. The PS problem in the 2015 elections
http://www.pedro-magalhaes.org/o-problema-do-ps-nas-eleicoes-de-2015/

3. Transfers of votes between 2011 and 2015
http://www.pedro-magalhaes.org/transferencias-de-voto-em-2015/

On the last topic, here's the Sankey diagram of the 2015/2011 elections:

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

The PSD and CDS will sign tomorrow the coalition agreement for the 2017 local elections. This agreement will establish the overall lines of how coalitions between the two parties will work. At the same time it's not clear how many coalitions will be formed for the 2017 elections. In 2013, 89 coalitions were formalized and until now around 50 have already been announced but only by early 2017 the final number will be settled.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-12-PSD-e-CDS-assinam-acordo-para-as-autarquicas

[Mike88]

New poll from Eurosondagem fro SIC and Expresso.



Conducted between 7 and 14 December. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.07%

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-16-Sondagem-PS-aumenta-distancia-para-PSD-e-CDS-somados

[windjammer]

New poll from Eurosondagem fro SIC and Expresso.



Conducted between 7 and 14 December. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.07%

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-16-Sondagem-PS-aumenta-distancia-para-PSD-e-CDS-somados

So Costa is popular ?

[Mike88]

New poll from Eurosondagem fro SIC and Expresso.



Conducted between 7 and 14 December. Polled 1,011 voters. MoE of 3.07%

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-16-Sondagem-PS-aumenta-distancia-para-PSD-e-CDS-somados

So Costa is popular ?

Right now, yes.

Here's the popularity ratings of the different political leaders:



Costa is basically stealing votes from the BE, CDU and Other parties. The PSD has dropped over the months but the overall sum between the PSD/CDS is pretty much on the same level of the 2015 elections.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wow, the Portuguese like their politicians!

[Mike88]

Aximage Poll for Correio da Manhã/Jornal de Negócios/CMTV



Prefered PM:

Costa: 61.6%
Passos Coelho: 26.5%
Neither: 10.5%

http://www.cmjornal.pt/cm-ao-minuto/detalhe/psd-afunda-e-ps-segue-caminho-para-a-maioria?ref=HP_Grupo1

Conducted between 2 and 4 December. Polled 605 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

Today, at least 3 newspapers are reporting that the PSD is willing to support the candidacy of Assunção Cristas, leader of CDS, for mayor of Lisbon. The press also points that the PSD still hasn't drop the idea of having a candidate of their own but that supporting the CDS is on the table. The campaign coordinator of the PSD, Carlos Carreiras, has said that a possible support is on the table but that, at the moment, no negotiations between the 2 parties are schedule and that the main goal is to have a candidacy of their own.

Of course this news breaks one day after another report stating that the vice-president of the PSD-Lisbon said in the Christmas dinner of the local party, in front of an audience of more than 1,000 people, that Pedro Passos Coelho himself should be the candidate for Lisbon. This report was called nonsense by the national PSD.

http://www.dn.pt/portugal/interior/carreiras-desmente-inicio-de-negociacoes-com-o-cds-para-apoiar-cristas-5557393.html

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-15-Vice-presidente-do-PSD-Lisboa-desafia-Passos-Coelho-a-candidatar-se-a-camara