Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is under fire today after an attempt to save an old and historic theatre company from bankruptcy. On Saturday, the PR showed up, unexpectedly, at the Cornucópia theatre to try to save it and dragged the Culture minister with him. On live television, the PR tried to force an agreement between the minister and the theatre to create a special status for the theatre. Of course the minister rejected the idea and Marcelo is now being attacked by actors and politicians for having exceeded his constitutional powers.

More info here:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-19-Ministro-rejeita-solucao-proposta-por-Marcelo-para-a-Cornucopia

http://sol.sapo.pt/artigo/538997/cornucopia-marcelo-extravasou-os-seus-poderes-ha-quem-ache-que-sim

[Mike88]

IPOM poll for the 2017 local election in the municipality of Paredes (PSD incumbent)

1st option, if PSD candidate is Joaquim Neves
24.2% PSD
22.4% PS
  2.3% CDU
  1.9% CDS
  5.0% Oth/Inv
  7.6% DR
28.6% DK
  7.9% Abstention

2nd option, if PSD candidate is Rui Moutinho
24.6% PS
17.3% PSD
  2.6% CDU
  3.6% CDS
  5.0% Oth/Inv
  7.8% DR
33.7% DK
  5.5% Abstention

The poll was conducted before the elections in the local PSD Paredes which were won by Rui Moutinho by a 53% to 47% margin. It's expected he will be the official candidate, but according to local newspapers he was not the favorite candidate of the current mayor Celso Ferreira, which is barred for reelection because of term limits, so anything could still happen. Still to early to say who is going to win this but Paredes could swing to the PS this time around, particularly because in 2013 the PSD only won by 0.16%.

More info here:
http://www.erc.pt/pt/sondagens/publicitacao-de-sondagens/depositos-de-2016/estudo-sociopolitico-no-concelho-de-paredes-20161221-200546

http://verdadeiroolhar.pt/2016/12/05/rui-moutinho-novo-presidente-da-comissao-politica-do-psd-paredes/

[windjammer]

IPOM poll for the 2017 local election in the municipality of Paredes (PSD incumbent)

1st option, if PSD candidate is Joaquim Neves
24.2% PSD
22.4% PS
  2.3% CDU
  1.9% CDS
  5.0% Oth/Inv
  7.6% DR
28.6% DK
  7.9% Abstention

2nd option, if PSD candidate is Rui Moutinho
24.6% PS
17.3% PSD
  2.6% CDU
  3.6% CDS
  5.0% Oth/Inv
  7.8% DR
33.7% DK
  5.5% Abstention

The poll was conducted before the elections in the local PSD Paredes which were won by Rui Moutinho by a 53% to 47% margin. It's expected be will be the official candidate, but according to local newspapers he was not the favorite candidate of the current mayor Celso Ferreira, which is barred for reelection because of term limits, so anything could still happen. Still to early to say who is going to win this but Paredes could swing to the PS this time around, particularly because in 2013 the PSD only won by 0.16%.

More info here:
http://www.erc.pt/pt/sondagens/publicitacao-de-sondagens/depositos-de-2016/estudo-sociopolitico-no-concelho-de-paredes-20161221-200546

http://verdadeiroolhar.pt/2016/12/05/rui-moutinho-novo-presidente-da-comissao-politica-do-psd-paredes/

Who is DK?

[Mike88]

DK= Don't Know
DR= Do not respond

[Lord Halifax]

IPOM poll for the 2017 local election in the municipality of Paredes (PSD incumbent)

1st option, if PSD candidate is Joaquim Neves
24.2% PSD
22.4% PS
  2.3% CDU
  1.9% CDS
  5.0% Oth/Inv
  7.6% DR
28.6% DK
  7.9% Abstention

2nd option, if PSD candidate is Rui Moutinho
24.6% PS
17.3% PSD
  2.6% CDU
  3.6% CDS
  5.0% Oth/Inv
  7.8% DR
33.7% DK
  5.5% Abstention

The poll was conducted before the elections in the local PSD Paredes which were won by Rui Moutinho by a 53% to 47% margin. It's expected be will be the official candidate, but according to local newspapers he was not the favorite candidate of the current mayor Celso Ferreira, which is barred for reelection because of term limits, so anything could still happen. Still to early to say who is going to win this but Paredes could swing to the PS this time around, particularly because in 2013 the PSD only won by 0.16%.

More info here:
http://www.erc.pt/pt/sondagens/publicitacao-de-sondagens/depositos-de-2016/estudo-sociopolitico-no-concelho-de-paredes-20161221-200546

http://verdadeiroolhar.pt/2016/12/05/rui-moutinho-novo-presidente-da-comissao-politica-do-psd-paredes/

Who is DK?

Mr. Don't Know

[Mike88]

Yesterday the government approved an increase of the minimum wage to 557 euros. To achieve this the government settled an agreement with companies bosses in which companies will have an 1.25% cut of the Unique social tax (TSU) to social security. The problem is that unions are totally against this and did not sign this agreement and even the 3 parties that support the PS, are also against this measure. The Greens even say that this violates the agreement they signed with the Socialists while the PCP and BE are going to try to stop this measure in Parliament.

Even without discussing the merits or problems that this measure has, this was a master move by the PM. With this policy, Costa is obliging the PCP, BE and PEV to say yes or to end this government, with the consequences of a bad result for the leftwing parties. When Costa took the oath of office a year ago, many were predicting that the PS would be eaten by the extreme left, the reality is that today the BE and CDU are trapped and any strike against Costa would mean disaster at the polls. While in Europe the extremes are rising, in Portugal they might be collapsing in front of your eyes.

More info here:
http://observador.pt/2016/12/23/pcp-vai-tentar-travar-descida-da-tsu-para-patroes-no-parlamento/  

http://observador.pt/2016/12/22/ha-acordo-salario-minimo-nos-557-euros-tsu-desce-125-para-patroes/

http://observador.pt/2016/12/22/reduzir-a-tsu-das-empresas-nao-viola-mesmo-o-acordo-com-os-verdes/

[Mike88]

The minister of foreign affairs, Augusto Santos Silva, had to publicly apologized today because of remarks he was caught making in the PS Christmas dinner. In the dinner the minister was gloating the agreement made to increase the minimum wage and talking very casually with the minister of social security, he compared the meeting and the agreement between companies bosses and the unions to be like cattle fair. This sparked a lot of controversy and criticism from unions, bosses and the opposition and the minister had to apologize. This is not the first time Santos Silva is in hot waters, during the Sócrates governments he made a lot of controversial statements being the most famous the one where he said he likes to "hammer the right".

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-27-Santos-Silva-pede-desculpa-por-comparar-concertacao-social-a-feira-de-gado

Also, the defense minister is also on the news. Today he published on Facebook a note with a goodbye tone to former President Mário Soares. Former President Mário Soares has been in hospital for several weeks now and since Saturday he has been in a deep coma. The prognostic is not very good and the hospital says that we should prepare for the worse.

http://sicnoticias.sapo.pt/pais/2016-12-27-Ministro-da-Defesa-publica-agradecimento-a-Mario-Soares-no-Facebook

[Mike88]

The new year in here, and the local elections are going to be the big political event of 2017.

In Porto, the PSD finally choose a candidate. They will nominate Álvaro Santos Almeida, an economist from the PSD-Porto, former president of Health Regulatory Entity of the North and a former IMF staffer. With this decision the PSD closes the discussion about an hypothetical support for Rui Moreira, current mayor of Porto.

In Cascais, the PS will nominate former culture minister Gabriela Canavilhas; in Oeiras Joaquim Raposo, former mayor of nearby city of Amadora, will run against Paulo Vistas, current mayor that will run with the expected support of the PSD, and Isaltino Morais who is, according to rumours, preparing a comeback.

Links:
http://observador.pt/2017/01/02/chama-se-alvaro-e-e-a-aposta-do-psd-para-enfrentar-rui-moreira/

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2016-12-30-PS-lanca-candidatura-de-Gabriela-Canavilhas-a-Cascais-e-Joaquim-Raposo-em-Oeiras

[Mike88]

Just found this site and it has fantastic maps particularly national parish maps, one the rarest maps seen in Portugal.

http://geografia-eleitoral.webnode.pt/

The site aggregates parish maps between 1991 and 2011. They, unfortunately, only have the parish map of the district of Aveiro from the 2015 election. They also have parish maps for the different regions of the country. Enjoy

Some examples:

Parish map of the 2009 election:


Parish map of the 2011 election:

[Mike88]

Former President and Prime Minister Mário Soares died today at age of 92. RIP

[Mike88]

The site that i posted earlier this week, aggregates awesome maps but didn't have a map of the 2015 election. So i decided to make one. And here it is:



Some considerations about the map:

The parish map, just like the district map and municipality map, shows a clear North-South divide with the Tagus river being the border between both sides;

The PSD/CDS dominates the North and the Upper Center of the country while the PS dominates the Coimbra Area and the Serra da Estrela area in the Center of the country; The PSD/CDS also dominates the Oeste area of the Country, between Lisbon and Coimbra; The South is pretty much painted in pink and red with some blue points which in Alentejo are, in their majority, urban areas. Algarve is painted pink with the exception of the coastal part between Lagoa and Faro where the rich and luxurious resorts of the Algarve are located;

The PS, got swept in the North particularly in Braga district, the Portuguese Ohio. Braga has gone for the winner in every general election since 1976 but as the real Ohio in America is swinging to the Republicans, since 2011 Braga has been swinging to the PSD. In fact, Braga was the only district where the PS lost votes and vote share, plus in the 2013 local election, Braga was also the only district the PSD gained compared with the last local election in 2009.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What explains the Braga shift?

[Mike88]

What explains the Braga shift?

Economic reasons mainly. During the "Troika" bailout years, and unlike the rest of the country, Braga district saw a big increase in jobs, wages and a big reduction of people dependent on government subsidies. This occurred more specifically in 3 cities of the district, Famalicão, Guimarães and Vizela. These 3 cities were in the podium of job gains and reduction of unemployment subsidies, and Vizela and Guimarães saw one of the country's big increases in wages and purchase power. Many of these good economic numbers from the district are related with the growth and rehabilitation of many textile and shoe factories which in the early 2000's came to or near bankruptcy.

More information:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/sociedade/2015-12-08-Que-sentido-faz-o-sentido-do-voto-

Also, many of these cities like Braga, Guimarães, Fafe and Vizela were PS strongholds for many decades and many corruption scandals, particularly in the city of Braga, may have undermined the PS in the district.

[Mike88]

Ok, update on the political scene:

The last few weeks have not been easy for the government. The new year started with the sell off of the Novo Banco (former BES). The winner chosen by the bank of Portugal, Lone Star funds, says it will only pay 750 million euros for the bank, a price the government says is too small to accept. Right now negotiations between the Bank of Portugal, Lone Star and Apollo Management (another fund interested in the bank) are underway. At the same time, a big debate about a possible nationalization of Novo Banco is making the headlines with the PS divided between the government and the parliamentary caucus.

Bond rates are again on the news as they surpassed 4% last week. Yesterday, the government borrowed money on the market at the highest rate since 2014 as it stood at 4.23%. This numbers have once again put in the headlines the discussion about the national debt.

The death of Mário Soares did not surprise anyone, as he was in coma for several weeks, but he died during the state visit of António Costa to India. Many thought the PM would cut his journey short but he decided to stay. Many PS militants and supporters did not like this and during the weekend the PS headquarters received many calls and emails with people frustrated with the PM decision.

And, today, the government plan to increase the minimun wage by reducing Social Security contributions (TSU) of employers by 1.25%, suffered a big blow. After the Communists and the Left Bloc announced that they would put this policy for a vote in Parliament and vote against it, the government was counting on the support of the PSD but Pedro Passos Coelho announced at the parliamentary caucus meeting of the PSD, that the party will vote against the policy. During the meeting, Passos Coelho said he will not be the "savior" of the government and that he opposes "the use of the TSU to promote the increase of the national minimum wage". This decision was not well received by bosses, who are now demanding the government to find a solution. The increase of the minimum wage to 557 euros could be in risk this year.

Links:
About Novo Banco:
https://eco.pt/topico/nacionalizacao-do-novo-banco/

Bond rates:
http://observador.pt/2017/01/11/estado-devera-pagar-juros-perto-de-42-para-emitir-divida/

PM's decision to stay in India:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-01-08-Costa-volta-a-justificar-falta-a-funeral-de-Soares-O-PM-nao-tem-vontades-pessoais-faz-o-que-deve-fazer-1

PSD vote against TSU reduction:
http://observador.pt/2017/01/12/salario-minimo-psd-deixa-ps-isolado-e-votara-contra-descida-da-tsu-para-patroes/

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wait...why are the Left parties opposing a minimum wAge hike?

[Mike88]

Wait...why are the Left parties opposing a minimum wAge hike?

They are not against the increase of the minimun wage. On the contrary, for the Communists, for example, they say the minimun wage should be at 900 euros right now.

What they are against is the way it's being increased. I wrote about this in December, to increase the minimum wage the government made a deal with employers in which they will see their contributions to Social Security reduced 1.25%, the so call TSU - Social Unity Tax. Both employers and employees pay this tax.

Here's what i wrote in December:

Yesterday the government approved an increase of the minimum wage to 557 euros. To achieve this the government settled an agreement with companies bosses in which companies will have an 1.25% cut of the Unique social tax (TSU) to social security. The problem is that unions are totally against this and did not sign this agreement and even the 3 parties that support the PS, are also against this measure. The Greens even say that this violates the agreement they signed with the Socialists while the PCP and BE are going to try to stop this measure in Parliament.

[Mike88]

Poll from Eurosondagem:



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between 5 and 11 January. Polled 1,010 voters. MoE of 3.07%

Link:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-01-13-Sondagem.-Costa-perde-popularidade-pela-primeira-vez-1

[Mike88]

Also, seat projections based on Eurosondagem poll numbers (compared with the 2015 election results):

100 (+14) PS
  85    (-4) PSD
  18    (-1) BE
  15    (-2) CDU
  11    (-7) CDS
    1    ( - ) PAN

If PSD/CDS ran in a coalition:

100    (-7) PSD/CDS
  97 (+11) PS
  17    (-2) BE
  15    (-2) CDU
    1    ( - ) PAN

Seat projections from here:
http://tiagotvv.github.io/app/vote.html

[Mike88]

Aximage poll:



Poll conducted between 6 and 9 January. Polled 603 voters. MoE of 4,00%.

Seat projection:

118 (+32) PS (Absolute majority)
  70 ( -19) PSD
  17    (-2) BE
  13    (-4) CDU
  11    (-7) CDS
    1    ( - ) PAN

If PSD/CDS ran coaltion:

115 (+29) PS
  86 ( -21) PSD/CDS
  17    (-2) BE
  11    (-6) CDU
    1    ( - ) PAN
   
Link: http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/politica/detalhe/ps-volta-a-subir-e-psd-continua-em-queda?ref=HP_UltimasNoticias

[Mike88]

Update on the 2017 local elections:

Passos Coelho announced tonight that the PSD will run alone in Lisbon and will not support Assunção Cristas, the CDS leader and former Agriculture minister in Passos Coelho governments. This ends months of speculation about what the PSD would do in Lisbon, but this decision may make the PS the early winner in Lisbon. The name of the candidate will be announced in the next few weeks.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-01-14-PSD-vai-ter-um-candidato-proprio-as-eleicoes-para-a-Camara-de-Lisboa

Also, tomorrow, the last local by-election before the October local elections will be held in the parish of Galveias in the municipality of Ponte de Sor, District of Portalegre. I will post the results later tomorrow evening.

[VPH]

I used to know a site where you could see the results of the 2015 election by freguesia in an interactive map. I cannot seem to find it though...

[windjammer]

If PS gets absolute majority, would the coalition with the far left parties continue to exist.

[Mike88]

I used to know a site where you could see the results of the 2015 election by freguesia in an interactive map. I cannot seem to find it though...

That would be awesome. Do you remember if the site was from a newspaper or something? I can help find it.

If PS gets absolute majority, would the coalition with the far left parties continue to exist.

No, most definitely not. If the PS gets a majority, which is still very unlikely, it would win it at some expense of the Communists and Left Bloc as polls are saying right now.

Plus, the first signs of friction between the PS and PCP/BE are now just starting. The TSU question is creating a bad mood between them and also the private-public partnerships to manage Hospitals, which the PCP and BE want to abolish, is going to continue or grow. In fact, many pundits here are quite stunned that the BE/PCP are more quite and handled than CDS was to the PSD.

[Mike88]

Results of the local by-election in Galveias parish, Ponte de Sor, Portalegre.
(results compared with the 2013 local election)

CDU: 49.9 (+36.5) 5 (+4)
PS: 41.7 (-18.1) 4 (-3)
BE: 2.9 (-1.0)
Blank: 3.1 (+1.2)
Invalid: 2.4 (+1.0)

Turnout: 50.4 (-17.7)

Note: In 2013, the CDS won 1 seat. PSD and CDS did not contest this by-election.

Link:
http://www.dn.pt/portugal/interior/cdu-destrona-ps-e-vence-com-maioria-absoluta-eleicoes-intercalares-em-galveias-5607236.html

[VPH]

I used to know a site where you could see the results of the 2015 election by freguesia in an interactive map. I cannot seem to find it though...

That would be awesome. Do you remember if the site was from a newspaper or something? I can help find it.

I am pretty sure it was! I remember looking at results for the villages my grandparents and parents are from but I forgot to bookmark it...