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Author Topic: Portugal's politics and elections  (Read 254325 times)
Mike88
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« Reply #175 on: February 10, 2017, 08:35:29 AM »

Poll from Eurosondagem:



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between 1 and 8 February. Polled 1,017 voters. MoE of 3.07%

Link:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-02-10-Sondagem.-PS-recupera-PSD-volta-a-descer
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DavidB.
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« Reply #176 on: February 10, 2017, 08:41:25 AM »

How do you vote, if I may ask? Smiley
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Mike88
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« Reply #177 on: February 10, 2017, 10:40:47 AM »

Generally i vote for the PSD, although in local election i have voted for the PS or CDS some times.
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Mike88
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« Reply #178 on: February 10, 2017, 01:04:48 PM »
« Edited: February 10, 2017, 01:06:53 PM by Mike88 »

Poll from Eurosondagem:



Popularity ratings:


Poll conducted between 1 and 8 February. Polled 1,017 voters. MoE of 3.07%

Link:
http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-02-10-Sondagem.-PS-recupera-PSD-volta-a-descer

Also, seat projections:

101 (+15) PS
  83    (-6) PSD
  18    (-1) BE
  17    ( =) CDU
  11    (-7) CDS
    0    (-1) PAN

If PSD/CDS ran together:

99    (-8) PSD/CDS
97 (+11) PS
17    (-2) BE
17    ( =) CDU
  0    (-1) PAN
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Mike88
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« Reply #179 on: February 10, 2017, 09:36:16 PM »

New poll from Aximage:

42.0% (+0.3%) PS
26.4% (+1.3%) PSD
  8.4% ( -0.7%) BE
  7.9% (+1.0%) CDU
  5.0% ( -1.8%) CDS
  7.7% ( -0.2%) Others
  2.6% (+0.1%) Undecided

65.4% ( -1.1%) Turnout

Conducted on 5 and 8 February. Polled 601 voters. MoE : 4,00%

Seat projection:

118 (+32) PS Absolute majority
  73 ( -16) PSD
  17   ( -2) BE
  16   ( -2) CDU
    6 ( -12) CDS

If PSD/CDS ran together:

114 (+28) PS
  84 ( -23) PSD/CDS
  16   ( -3) BE
  16   ( -2) CDU

Link: http://www.cmjornal.pt/politica/detalhe/ps-perto-de-dispensar-be-e-pcp-na-geringonca?ref=Bloco_CMAoMinuto
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Mike88
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« Reply #180 on: February 13, 2017, 11:42:07 AM »

The Caixa controversy continues to haunt the government and, in this case, the Finance Minister. After last week revelations showing that there's evidence that the minister lied in Parliament, there's new revelations that could damage even more Mr Centeno. Yesterday, Luis Marques Mendes, former PSD leader and Portugal's current leading political commentator, revealed that the government delayed on purpose the date of publication of legislation changing the statute of the business sector. The legislation was approved in cabinet on June 21 2016 but it was only published one month after, on July 28 right in the middle of Parliament summer recess.

Link: http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-02-12-CGD.-Marques-Mendes-acusa-Governo-de-manipular-data-de-publicacao-do-decreto

This controversy, which the PM is labeling as "political gossip", is creating some embarrassment in the PCP and BE. And the most notorious reaction from the PCP came from João Ferreira, current EU MP and candidate for mayor of Lisbon. On Thursday night while debating in SIC Noticias with a CDS politician, Ferreira responded to Bernardo Ferrão, a political analyst who said the if Mr Centeno was from the PSD the communists would be right now demanding the resignation of the minister, saying that the PCP never asked for the removal of any minister. Of course this is a blunt lie and SIC Noticias went to their archives and found numerous footage of the Communists demanding the removal of just not one minister but of whole governments.

Link: http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-02-10-Joao-Ferreira-desafiou-a-SIC-foi-ao-arquivo-afinal-o-PCP-ja-pediu-ou-nao-a-demissao-de-ministros-
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Mike88
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« Reply #181 on: February 13, 2017, 12:20:35 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2017, 12:55:01 PM by Mike88 »

Follow up about the Caixa controversy, the finance minister will make a press conference in just 15 minutes.

http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-02-13-CGD-Centeno-presta-esclarecimentos-as-17h30

Live stream: http://sicnoticias.sapo.pt/especiais/cgd/2017-02-13-As-explicacoes-de-Centeno
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Mike88
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« Reply #182 on: February 13, 2017, 01:57:39 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2017, 03:17:14 PM by Mike88 »

First reactions to the press conference are very bad for Mr Centeno. Pundits are saying this was a waste of time and that the minister didn't say anything new, on the contrary he may have said some gaffes. The most commentated right now it's a statement from the minister where he says that there was a lack of awareness between him and Mr Domingues which in other words means that they were understanding different things during the negotiations.

Plus, he said the he putted his title "at the disposal" of the prime minister, in which pundits are saying it's ridiculous because all ministers have their title at the disposal of the PM all the time.

All of this occurs after the EU commission hailed Portugal's efforts in reducing the deficit and on making the economy stable. Because of this the media is underlining that Mr Centeno politically is a disaster.

Link: http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-02-13-Centeno-colocou-o-lugar-a-disposicao-do-primeiro-ministro

Opinion:

http://www.dn.pt/opiniao/opiniao-dn/paulo-baldaia/interior/centeno-tardio-e-desastrado-5664806.html

http://sicnoticias.sapo.pt/especiais/cgd/2017-02-13-A-analise-a-declaracao-de-Centeno
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Mike88
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« Reply #183 on: February 13, 2017, 06:36:36 PM »

I've been accumulating poll data from many polling companies over the years and decided to make a graph of Portugal's voting intentions. The last date i found was October 2001. The graph shows the monthly average for each party.

Here it is:


Overall, there were 174 months polled:

The PS was ahead in 130
The PSD was ahead in 43
1 month both parties were tied

Plus, the PS won the 2005 and 2009 elections. The PSD won the 2002, 2011 and 2015 elections (the last one in coalition with CDS).


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Mike88
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« Reply #184 on: February 14, 2017, 12:13:25 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2017, 03:18:42 PM by Mike88 »

More updates about the Caixa controversy:

The President of the Republic gave, last night, a press release where he says that the minister will continue in office just because of the "national interest in terms of financial stability". This press release, according to the media, weakens even more the finance minister as the PR doesn't mention in the release any confidence or trust in the minister. The president met with the minister in the morning and with the PM in the afternoon to try to manage this controversy, but the press conference of Mr Centeno didn't help.

Mr Centeno days in government may end sooner than we expected.

Link: http://observador.pt/2017/02/13/marcelo-centeno-nao-cai-por-estrito-interesse-nacional/

And apparently, the Socialists are not very happy with the way the President referred to Mr Centeno.

Link: http://expresso.sapo.pt/politica/2017-02-14-Socialistas-revoltados-com-Marcelo
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Mike88
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« Reply #185 on: February 14, 2017, 04:06:34 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2017, 04:17:28 PM by Mike88 »

The Caixa controversy has new episodes by the hour. It's becoming ridiculous.

After the press conference of Mr Centeno, the PSD and CDS asked for the emails and text messages between Mr Centeno and Mr Domingues to be delivered to the inquiry committee but it was blocked by the PS, PCP and BE. But at the same time, Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP secretary general, said that he doesn't put his hand on the fire for no one and Catarina Martins, BE leader, said that yesterday was a bad day and that Mr Centeno role in all of this is "tragically ironic".

Plus, SIC Noticias is reporting that the PM's office was very upset by the tone in the President's press release from last night.

Mr Centeno is becoming weaker by the hour.

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FrancoAgo
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« Reply #186 on: February 14, 2017, 07:22:50 PM »

i've some doubt thar PSD win the 2015 elections, the PaF was the most voted list but this is a coalition list and they loss over 11 point from the previous electionsand the not get enough seats to gain the mayority
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Mike88
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« Reply #187 on: February 14, 2017, 10:07:41 PM »
« Edited: February 15, 2017, 03:04:26 PM by Mike88 »

i've some doubt thar PSD win the 2015 elections, the PaF was the most voted list but this is a coalition list and they loss over 11 point from the previous electionsand the not get enough seats to gain the mayority
I think this chart will help to explain:
On the last topic, here's the Sankey diagram of the 2015/2011 elections:

As you can see, the low turnout in the 2015 election affected all parties but PaF suffered the most. Many PSD and CDS 2011 voters didn't vote for them in 2015 because of the austerity policies the coalition implemented during the Troika years. There was also some vote swings to the PS and the Left Bloc, which in this case are, probably, many young urban voters that were pissed about youth unemployment and lack of opportunities.

The coalition lost around 700,000 votes in 2015, they would always lose some voters but they would benefit because the electoral system helps coalitions. But if you add the gains, in votes, the PS, the BE, smaller parties like PAN or PDR and the abstentionists had, you will have a number that almost matches the number of votes that PaF lost in the 2015 elections.
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Mike88
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« Reply #188 on: February 15, 2017, 11:43:47 AM »
« Edited: February 15, 2017, 11:53:23 AM by Mike88 »

The Caixa controversy is getting worse and worse...

Newspapers are reporting today that the President saw the text messages between Mr Centeno and Mr Domingues and felt betrayed by the minister. The content of these messages was what led to the meting between the President and the minister and also to the failed press conference of Mr Centeno last Monday.

And today in the budget committee, the minister was grilled by the opposition who demanded that these messages to be released by the end of the afternoon, demand the Left rejected.

But, apparently, everyone in Parliament know the content of these messages and parts of it are now being leaked to the press. SIC Noticias is reporting that the messages prove that both men had an agreement. And because the left is refusing to release the messages, Mr Domingues himself is willing to reveal the content of the messages.

The President is also being very criticised by parties and pundits for overstepping his constitutional powers by meeting with the minister and by warning him. According to the constitution, ministers only respond to the Prime Minister and not to the President.

----

Also not related to this, the mayor of Vila Verde, Braga District, António Vilela (PSD) was detained for suspicions of corruption envolving the sale of capital from a local school to a private company.
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Mike88
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« Reply #189 on: February 16, 2017, 01:09:35 PM »
« Edited: February 16, 2017, 01:30:20 PM by Mike88 »

The Caixagate continues....

Today, the president of the enquiry committee, Matos Correia (PSD), resigned accusing the Left of not letting the committee investigate the role of the minister and for putting in jeopardy the normal functioning of the committee.

The PS is also all over the place, accusing now the President of the Republic of being as much involved in this controversy as the Finance minister. João Galamba, spokesperson of the PS, also added that the President could be accused of the same things the Finance minister is accused of.

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DavidB.
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« Reply #190 on: February 16, 2017, 01:32:39 PM »

Thanks for all these updates, Mike. I have little to add, but read them all.
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #191 on: February 16, 2017, 02:18:01 PM »

Me too, great work. In Poland no one cares about Portugal, especially media.
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Mike88
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« Reply #192 on: February 16, 2017, 03:48:15 PM »

Thanks for all these updates, Mike. I have little to add, but read them all.
Me too, great work. In Poland no one cares about Portugal, especially media.

Thanks guys! Cheesy  Portugal could be a small and quiet country, but politically it's very eventful.

The Caixagate could easily be a playbook of what not to do in politics. This case is becoming just dumb. The Prime Minister is surprised the media is still talking about this, adding that the President has already said the case was over. But, today's events came from the PS. The spokesperson of the PS, João Galamba, said that the President is as guilty as the Finance minister but hours after saying this, he stated that he didn't said what he said. But everything he said is on tape.

Everyone wants the case to be over, but every day new details emerge.
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Mike88
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« Reply #193 on: February 19, 2017, 01:55:24 PM »

Update on Caixagate:

After the resignation of the president of the inquiry committee about Caixa bank, the socialist party caucus leader, Carlos Cesar, said that if the PSD/CDS wanted to know what is on those emails and text messages they should form another inquiry committee. Of course, the PSD/CDS did just that.

In a interview this weekend the speaker of Parliament, Ferro Rodrigues, said that the former committee should not end but is open to accept the new committee proposed by the PSD/CDS.

And, Mr Domingues has already said he is willing to show those text messages in the new committee... The caixagate will have new episodes for sure.
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Mike88
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« Reply #194 on: February 19, 2017, 02:15:22 PM »

Update in the local elections:

After tense negotiations between the PSD and CDS, both parties came to an agreement in two important cities: Coimbra and Sintra.

In Coimbra, the PSD/CDS coalition will be headed by Jaime Ramos, former mayor of Miranda do Corvo, Coimbra district.



And in Sintra, the PSD/CDS also finished their negotiations to support Marco Almeida, although the local parties weren't happy with the outcome.



 
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FrancoAgo
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« Reply #195 on: February 19, 2017, 05:21:17 PM »

As you can see, the low turnout in the 2015 election affected all parties but PaF suffered the most. Many PSD and CDS 2011 voters didn't vote for them in 2015 because of the austerity policies the coalition implemented during the Troika years. There was also some vote swings to the PS and the Left Bloc, which in this case are, probably, many young urban voters that were pissed about youth unemployment and lack of opportunities.

The coalition lost around 700,000 votes in 2015, they would always lose some voters but they would benefit because the electoral system helps coalitions. But if you add the gains, in votes, the PS, the BE, smaller parties like PAN or PDR and the abstentionists had, you will have a number that almost matches the number of votes that PaF lost in the 2015 elections.

This is right but not justify your affirmation that they win  the election
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Mike88
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« Reply #196 on: February 19, 2017, 05:45:49 PM »
« Edited: February 19, 2017, 05:58:15 PM by Mike88 »

As you can see, the low turnout in the 2015 election affected all parties but PaF suffered the most. Many PSD and CDS 2011 voters didn't vote for them in 2015 because of the austerity policies the coalition implemented during the Troika years. There was also some vote swings to the PS and the Left Bloc, which in this case are, probably, many young urban voters that were pissed about youth unemployment and lack of opportunities.

The coalition lost around 700,000 votes in 2015, they would always lose some voters but they would benefit because the electoral system helps coalitions. But if you add the gains, in votes, the PS, the BE, smaller parties like PAN or PDR and the abstentionists had, you will have a number that almost matches the number of votes that PaF lost in the 2015 elections.

This is right but not justify your affirmation that they win  the election
Ahh sorry. Well, the PaF managed to win the election because of many factors like the economy, which at the time of the election was growing at around 1.7%, and a somewhat good record on reducing the deficit, which can be discussed, but most importantly was how bad the PS campaign was. Since august the socialist campaign was flooded with controversies from bad organization and even incompetence. The PaF managed to maintain the large portion of the PSD and CDS electorate plus managed to hold on to those swing voters in the big districts of Lisbon, Porto and Braga, while the PS saw their potential electorate divide their votes between many smaller parties, like the BE, although they were able to make significant gains in the South.

I think this sums it up, but if you have more questions i'm glad to answer them.
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Mike88
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« Reply #197 on: February 21, 2017, 10:42:16 AM »

The Caixagate continues...

Today, ECO newspaper is reporting that the law firm who was involved in the writting of the new Public management status was paid by the Caixa bank and not the former president of the bank António Domingues, the real client of the law firm.

And at the same time, the Left is thinking of blocking the PSD/CDS attempts to create a new enquiry committee to investigate the text messages and emails between Mr Centeno and Mr. Domingues.

Adding to this, the President of the Republic gave an interview to TVI where he once again said he maintained the trust in the Finance Minister because of the "national interest".



In the interview, the PR compared the possible resignation of Mr. Centeno to the resignation of Vitor Gaspar in 2013 which led to a political crisis, an earthquake in the markets and in the Portuguese bonds. He also said he is surprised by the length of the current government solution and it's results in terms of the budget deficit.
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Mike88
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« Reply #198 on: February 21, 2017, 05:43:51 PM »

Update on the local elections:

PSD approves another lot of 49 candidates for the elections, most of them in big cities like Coimbra, Guarda, Vila Nova de Gaia, Valongo and Maia.
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Mike88
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« Reply #199 on: February 21, 2017, 06:30:53 PM »

Adding to the post above, here's a map of the candidacies announced by the PS and PSD:


Note: In some municipalties the PSD and CDS will run in coaltion. In the next map with more informations about the candidacies, i will separate both colours.

At the moment informations are still very fresh and could change. In the majority of municipalties, parties are still deciding which candidates to choose with some even having primary elections in the weeks ahead.

I will update the map when there's a big dump of candidacies announced and, hopefully, make a map with the candidacies of the CDS, CDU, BE and Independents.
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