Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

PAN allied with PSD? Why?

I also didn't knew PAN was allied with PSD in Maia, but PAN is a center to center-left party. It has animals rights as their goal and ideologically they're not very strong. They could support either the PS or PSD, in my opinion.

Actually in 2015, when PSD/CDS won the elections but lost their majority, PAN and PSD discussed about a possible support of PAN for Passos Coelho government program if PCP and PS failed to reach an agreement but ultimately PCP agreed with PS and the PSD/PAN talks stooped.

[Mike88]

Spanish newspaper "El Mundo" says that the Pedrógão fire disaster may be the end of António Costa's political career.

Spanish media has been much more blunt in accusing the Portuguese government rather than the Portuguese media. But today, El Mundo says that the series of events that created a sense of chaos and lack of leadership, particularly the now famous "airplane crash that didn't happen" or the refusal of the help the Galician government gave to Portugal because there were to much volunteers may undermine the Prime Minister or even end his political career.

El Mundo article: Link.

Now, although El Mundo may be exaggerating a bit, they have a point. Mr Costa's government made a series of political decisions in the last year that are now inexplicable. The decision to exclude the Air Force from fire combat, the refusal to buy new airplanes planed by the previous PSD/CDS government, plus the famous "Forest Reform" that is stuck in Parliament since April. One thing is sure, the good times for António Costa may be over.

[Mike88]

Okay, i updated my forecast for the October local elections. There have been some changes, mostly safe or lean PS/PSD cities to tossup. Right now the central forecast is:

118/153 PS
109/134 PSD
    30/36 CDU
    10/19 Independent
        4/5 CDS
        0/1 BE
        0/1 JPP

In my forecast, 182 cities can be classified as safe, 73 as leaning, 16 as slightly leaning and 37 toss-up. In comparison with the last forecast in April here are the changes:

Oliveira de Azeméis: Toss-up --> Lean PS
Mértola: Lean PS --> Toss-up
Castro Marim: Lean PSD --> Toss-up
Portimão: Safe PS --> Lean PS
Figueiró dos Vinhos: Slight PS --> Toss-up
Oeiras: Lean Ind --> Safe Ind
Elvas: Safe PS --> Toss-up
Maia: Lean PSD --> Toss-up
Vila do Conde: Safe PS --> Toss-up
Matosinhos: Safe PS --> Toss-up
Montalegre: Safe PS --> Toss-up
Funchal: Lean PS --> Toss-up
Pedrógão Grande: Safe PSD --> Toss-up
Salvaterra de Magos: Safe PS --> Toss-up
Porto Santo: Lean PS --> Lean PSD

And here's the forecast map by municipalities:

Pink: PS
Orange: PSD
Gray: Independent
Red: CDU
Blue: CDS
White: Toss-up

[Mike88]

The political scene has seen a big shift this week.

The Pedrógão Grande disaster is shaking António Costa's government and the PM, for the first time in his tenure, is in a very uncomfortable position. But, Passos Coelho also has troubles and next week he will have a very important challenge if he wants to maintain as PSD leader.

Next week, on July 1st, members of the PSD in Lisbon district will elect a new district president and a new district party assembly. The president election only has one list, headed by Pedro Pinto, which is a very close ally of Passos Coelho, but in the assembly elections he has a list against him. Morais Sarmento, former minister in Durão Barroso government, is heading a list to the assembly thus challenging the list supported by Passos Coelho. Morais Sarmento has the support of highly important PSD members like Manuela Ferreira Leite and even the possible challenger against Passos Coelho in 2018, Rui Rio.


The fight for the PSD is heating up. From left to right: Pedro Pinto, Morais Sarmento, Passos Coelho, Rui Rio.

If Passos Coelho loses the majority in Lisbon's PSD district assembly, it may be a sign that his days as PSD leader are over... and then get ready for Rui Rio.

[Mike88]

The political scene just got another shake up today:

Pedro Passos Coelho, PSD leader, visited today some villages and firefighters headquarters in Pedrogão Grande where he made some statements that are causing a big controversy. After his visit, Mr Passos Coelho told reporters that after talking to people and firefighters, he sees that the government is failing to help people and that at least in one case, one person committed suicide at of despair. This statements are creating a big uproar because they are being debunked by local and health authorities.


Passos Coelho visiting the Pedrogão Grande firefighters headquarters.

According to Expresso newspaper, Mr. Passos Coelho heard by a lot people, including firefighters and even some journalists, stories of despair and pain with some people committing suicide. According to the newspaper, he made public this story without confirming it. This statement is very serious and some say it's just a rumour but, unfortunately, in the last few days many rumours are turning out to be true. 

What started the fire was apparently dry lightning. The President, the PM, the police and others also confirmed it but as time went on many people living in the region said that no lightning was seen in the early hours of the afternoon and SIC Notícias tracked down the person who called 911 to the firefighters and he said that at the time he called the sky was blue without a single cloud.

And then there's this story. After the communications between help officials collapsed during the fire, the government said that the antennas burned during the fire. But according to local media, the antennas didn't burned and were unused apparently.

The allegations made by Passos Coelho are serious and may be another nail in the coffin for his future as PSD leader, but the lack of leadership and chaos the government is handling this tragedy is shocking. 

JUST IN: The president of the Santa Casa da Misericordia de Pedrógão Grande, just said it was him who gave the information to Passos Coelho and mislead him. He said there were in fact some suicide attempts but no actual suicides. He has already apologized publicly to Mr Passos Coelho.

[Mike88]

Fun fact about the current political situation:

The Passos Coelho "suicide" debacle is making pundits suggest, once again, that the PSD may not get many gains in the local elections and that the PS may retain their status of the largest local government party. If this happens it would be the first time that an incumbent government wins a midterm local election. The PSD would, with high certainty, have a change of leader.

But here's the tricky part. Every PM, since 1974, has won reelection after losing a midterm local election:

- Cavaco Silva's PSD lost the 1989 local elections, but won the 1991 general election.

- Guterres's PS performed badly in the 1997 local election, but came back and won the 1999 general elections with an almost absolute majority.

- Sócrates (PS) also lost the 2005 local elections and, in 2009, won reelection.

- Passos Coelho (PSD) achieved the worst result ever for the PSD in local elections in 2013, but was able to win the 2015 general elections.

If António Costa wins the local elections and if the PSD changes it's leader, possibly to Rui Rio, history suggests he could be in trouble in the next general election. We'll see if this logic holds up. 

[Mike88]

More posters for the October local elections:

Porto - PS

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Loures - PS

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Matosinhos - PS

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Paredes - PSD

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[Mike88]

Update on the local elections:

PSD candidate for Oliveira de Azeméis (Aveiro district), Isidro Figueiredo, drops from the race amid corruption investigations.


Isidro Figueiredo

Isidro Figueiredo, incumbent mayor and PSD candidate for Oliveira de Azeméis, has drop out of the race because of a huge corruption scandal involving him and his predecessor, Hermínio Loureiro. The scandal, dubbed "Ajuste Secreto" (Secret Covenant), involves many high profile politicians, the majority from the local PSD in Oliveira de Azeméis, and many presidents of football clubs. The accusation says both football presidents and local officials are involved in alleged practices of corruption and influence peddling in the direct adjudication of sports contracts in several clubs in the municipality.

The PSD will have to nominate a new candidate but this city is lost cause for the PSD. In 2013 they only won it by around 2% and with this scandal, Oliveira de Azeméis is now Safe PS.

[Mike88]

Another scandal rocks the political scene:

After the Pedrógão Grande disaster, the government's inefficient response to the disaster and the "suicide" gaffe of Passos Coelho, another scandal is rocking the political scene.


Aerial view of the Tancos military base (Santarém district).

On the early hours of June 29, the military facilities in Tancos were robbed and more than a hundred of offensive hand grenades, ammunitions of 9 mm gauge and other military material disappeared from the facilities. The government was caught off-guard with this robbery at the same time they were under fire by the media because of the Pedrógão Grande disaster.

But today, Diário de Notícias reports that the surveillance system of the military facility has been broken for two years  and that parts of the fences were deteriorated. The police and the government now fear that the stolen material could fall in the hands of terrorist organizations or people connected with terrorists.

[Mike88]

More on the military base robbery:

The minister of Defense, Mr. Azeredo Lopes, has officially said that the weapons stolen from Tancos military base may have a terrorist destination. The minister added that the material stolen may be right now entering the illegal market of arms trafficking.

The Chief of Staff of the Army, Gen. Rovisco Duarte, concedes that there may have been an internal plot inside to help the thieves steal the military equipment. And because of this robbery, the media is reporting that the US embassy in Lisbon has asked for a security reinforcement, although, officially, the embassy says it's because of the 4th July holiday.

Also, polls are already open in Lisbon district as PSD members will elect a new district party president and a new district party assembly. Focus is on how the anti-Passos Coelho list will perform in the party assembly elections. Polls close at 23:00.

[Mike88]

Not very encouraging results for Passos Coelho in the Lisbon district elections:

First, turnout was very low: below 20%.

In the district president elections, the sole candidate Pedro Pinto, a close ally of Passos Coelho, won but there were lots of invalid and blank ballots:

2,769 77.8% Pedro Pinto
   721 20.3% Blank ballots
     69   1.9% Invalid ballots

In the district assembly elections, the anti-Passos list only ran in Lisbon city, the biggest section in the district and they won against the pró-Passos list. In the city of Lisbon the results were:

800 55.5% Anti-Passos Coelho list
597 41.4% Pró-Passos Coelho list
  44   3.1% Blank/Invalid ballots

Overall, the newly elected PSD Lisbon district assembly is as follow:

460+212 Pró Passos Coelho list (the 212 seats are members of the PSD youth and PSD workers association who support Mr. Passos Coelho)
153 Anti-Passos Coelho list

In summary, although Passos Coelho allies maintain control of the district party, the opposition got a very good showing in Lisbon. The fight for the leadership is going to be interesting.

[Mike88]

More on Tancos base robbery:

Spanish media are reporting, with high detail, the inventory of the stolen material from Tancos military base. Here's the original article from El Español newspaper.

The army and the government didn't want to disclose the full details of the robbery so as not to disturb the investigations but Spanish media are publishing it as we speak.

One interesting note: Spanish newspapers are really hitting hard on the Portuguese government and António Costa. I don't think i never saw anything like this. During the Pedrogão disaster, almost every major newspaper in Spain had articles or editorials fiercely criticising António Costa. The Portuguese media is also starting to criticise the government but Spain's criticisms are really surprising.

[Mike88]

A government reshuffle may be eminent.

After António Costa said, in the last few weeks, that no minister would be fired in the aftermath of Pedrógão Grande or the Tancos base robbery, some newspapers are reporting that a government reshuffle may be in the making. According to Correio da Manhã, the minister of Defense, Azeredo Lopes, is on the verge of being fired, and the article also says that the interior minister, Constança Urbano de Sousa, may also be fired and replaced by the vice chairman of the PS caucus, Jorge Lacão.

We will see if this reshuffle happens and, if it does, it's a considerable U-turn from the PM's past statements.

The political mood is very tense currently and it got a bit worse yesterday when newspapers reported that António Costa went on holiday to Palma de Maiorca in the middle of the wildfire and military robbery crisis. PSD and CDS, but more fiercely the CDS, are demanding that the PM cut his holiday short and also the exoneration of the Defense and Interior ministers.

[Mike88]

Poll from Eurosondagem for Guimarães (Braga District), Pop. of 158,000 inhabitants: (PS incumbent)

54.1% 7 PS
30.7% 4 PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/PPV-CDC
  6.0%    CDU
  4.2%    BE
  5.0%    Others/Blank/Invalid

Poll conducted between 25 and 26 June. Polled 708 voters. MoE of 3.67%. Link.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll from July: (compared with the June poll)

40.4% PS (+0.4)
28.6% PSD (-0.4)
  8.5% BE (-0.1)
  7.8% CDU (+0.3)
  6.2% CDS (-0.2)
  1.3% PAN (-0.4)
  7.2% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted between 28 June and 5 July. Polled 1,008 voters. MoE of 3.09%. Link.

Seat Projections:

111 PS
  78 PSD
  16 BE
  16 CDU
    8 CDS
    1 PAN

If PSD/CDS were together:

107 PS
  93 PSD/CDS
  15 BE
  14 CDU
    1 PAN

According to this poll, the tragic events in Pedrogão Grande or the controversial robbery in Tancos military base had almost zero effect in the voting intentions of the electorate. And even the popularity of the different political leaders wasn't very damaged: the PM lost 0.6%, the PSD leader lost 0.8%, CDU leader lost 0.7%, CDS leader lost 1.1% and BE leader lost 1.0%. The President of the Republic was the only one which saw his popularity rise 0.3%.

[Mike88]

Dismissals in the government!

3 secretaries from different ministers have, this sunday, tender their resignation to the PM after the DA office started an inquiry about the controversial payments of Galp Energia, the main oil company in Portugal, to some members of the government to watch football matches in the Euro 2016 called Galpgate.


The 3 secretaries that resigned. From left to right: Rocha Andrade, João Vasconcelos, Jorge Costa Oliveira.

The secretaries that resigned are: the secretary of Internationalization, Jorge Costa Oliveira, the secretary of Industry, João Vasconcelos and the secretary of tax affairs, Rocha Andrade. This last one is the chief of the tax machine in Portugal, so his resignation is a big blow for António Costa.

According to the media, the 3 secretaries resigned after learning that the DA was questioning many people involved in the controversial payments and decided to resigned in order to protect the government and ask the DA to make them official defendants in the inquiry.

This may give more ammunition to the PSD/CDS opposition in the State of the Nation debate schedule for Wednesday.

[Mike88]

Today, the final debate of the 2016/2017 parliamentary session was held.

The State of the Nation debate was dominated by the main political topics that are making headlines for almost a month: the Pedrógão Grande wildfire disaster, the Tancos military base robbery, the resignation of 3 secretaries from the government who were very close to the PM, and the 2016 budget captivations.

In the debate, the government and the PM hailed the good economic situation right now. The economy is expected to grow 2.5% this year, the deficit is projected to be reduced to 1.5% and levels of consumer and business confidence are the best in more than 20 years. But the good economic data wasn't enough to block heavy criticism from the PSD/CDS opposition and even from the life support of Mr Costa government, the CDU and BE.


António Costa, PM, delivering his state of the nation speech.

António Costa added that the good economic data is proof that the PS was an alternative to the PSD/CDS policies and that the opposition failed on the pessimist view they had of the PS led government. The PM also announced he will nominate the 3 new secretaries tomorrow, plus he will create a new secretary for housing. The PSD, and also CDS, counterattacked saying the government was collapsing and that has lost the respect of the voters, plus the PSD criticized the lack of leadership the PM showed during the wildfire and robbery crisis. The PM responded by arguing that the PSD has lost every inch of respect.


Passos Coelho, LO, giving his response to the PM and also his state of the nation speech.

The PSD leader and leader of the opposition (LO), Passos Coelho, gave a very tough speech about the state of the nation. He said that the "mask has fallen" about the government pledge that austerity was over and that if the economy is good and business environment is improving is because the PS made a U-turn and decided to persue his former government policies. His speech galvanized the PSD MPs and infuriated PS MPs who were very loud during Mr. Passos Coelho speech.

The left, BE and CDU, aren't happy also. Both parties want more spending for the 2018 budget after it was revealed that the government captivated almost a billion euros in 2016 to reduce the deficit. Both parties demanded more spending on the welfare state, on the NHS, on schools and on defense. The final 2016 deficit report found that in many of these areas, the PS government spent less than the PSD/CDS government in 2015.

Overall the debate was warm but nothing else. Each party raised their flags and tried to please their electorates on the runner up to the fall local elections.

Parliament will now close for the summer recess and will officially reopen on mid September to initiate the 2017/2018 parliament session of the 13th Parliament. This opening of Parliament will be a bit delayed because of the campaign for the local election as many MPs will be running in local elections all across the country.

As parliament closes, the political strength of each party or coalition may be different after the local elections. Right now the current political strength of each party, by national, regional, local and european elected officials, is as follow: (PSD and CDS are together in this list because in many places they run in joint lists and there's no data of the distribution of parties in these coalitions.)



PSD+CDS have 16,118 elected officials;
PS has 16,069;
CDU has 3,160;
BE has 270;
PAN has 7;
JPP has 60;
Independents have 3,739;
Other parties have 65;

A lot of power will probably change in the October 1st local elections.

[Mike88]

Today, the PM's office has given the President of the Republic the full list of secretaries that will be nominated and those who will be exonerated. The PR's office has release the list also to the press.

In the new government reshuffle, the 3rd in Costa's government, there will 8 new secretaries and 7 exits. No minister was exonerated though. The full list is:

New secretary of European Affairs: Ana Paula Zacarias
New secretary of Internationalization: Eurico Brilhante Dias
New secretary of Tax Affairs: António Mendonça Mendes
New secretary of Administration and Public Employment: Maria de Fonseca
New secretary of Industry: Ana Lehmann
New secretary of Forestry and Rural Development: Miguel Pisoeiro de Freitas
New secretary of Housing: Ana Pinho
New secretary of the Council of Ministers: Tiago Antunes

The new secretaries will take the oath of office tomorrow but this reshuffle isn't without controversy. The former secretary of European Affairs, Margarida Marques, didn't knew she was going to be fired nor asked to be substitute. She has said to the press she's "surprised" and doesn't know the reasons for her exoneration by the PM. She will resume her seat in Parliament as an MP for the district of Leiria.

[Mike88]

Another controversy is haunting the government, especially the PM:

On the state of the nation debate, last Wednesday, a communist MP asked the PM about the situation in Portugal Telecom (PT). The company was sold to french Altice in 2015 after it went bankrupt due to horrible and incompetent deals it made with several banks and companies, namely the former Espirito Santo Bank, but also government interferences that escalated during the Sócrates PS government (2005-2011). The problem in all of this was the PM's response. He said he's worried that Altice may damage PT and that for his part, he was chosen another communications company for himself.

Of course, these remarks were received with strong shock by the press and even the stock market. Yesterday, PT's main competitor NOS, saw their stocks soar and economists said the PM's remarks may hurt PT and benefit NOS. All of this happens in the same time Altice is on the verge of buying Media Capital which owns Portugal's most viewed TV channel, TVI.

Political parties are already using this. BE and CDU want the government to act, with CDU even suggesting the renationalisation of PT. The PSD leader, Passos Coelho, rather than attacking Costa, he mocked him saying that Donald Trump also attacked American companies and that was a scandal, so this is no different.

It's still unclear why the PM attacked Altice. Yes, they have been firing people or putting them on hold but the PS shouldn't talk about PT. Many of the deals that screwed PT were supported by a PS led government, especially the horrible deal with Brazilian Oi.

[Mike88]

Expresso and SIC TV unveiled a weird and contradictory poll about the government attitude in the Pedrógão disaster and in the Tancos robbery:

Q1: Should the Interior Minister, Constança Urbano de Sousa, have resigned after the Pedrógão disaster:

33.3% Yes
49.7% No
17.0% Don't Know

Q2: Should the Defence Minister, Azeredo Lopes, have resigned after the Tancos base robbery:

36.9% Yes
43.0% No
20.1% Don't Know

Q3: Is the government more weak after these two events?

55.2% Yes
34.8% No
10.0% Don't Know

Q4: Should António Costa reshuffle the government?

52.4% Yes
26.6% No
21.0% Don't Know

Poll conducted between 10 and 12 July by Eurosondagem. Polled 1,001 voters. MoE of 3.10%.

According to this poll, the electorate believes the government is more weak and fragile and that the PM should reshuffle the government after these two events. At the same time, the 2 main ministers responsible for the response for these two event shouldn't resign. Weird.

[VPH]

Expresso and SIC TV unveiled a weird and contradictory poll about the government attitude in the Pedrógão disaster and in the Tancos robbery:

Q1: Should the Interior Minister, Constança Urbano de Sousa, have resigned after the Pedrógão disaster:

33.3% Yes
49.7% No
17.0% Don't Know

Q2: Should the Defence Minister, Azeredo Lopes, have resigned after the Tancos base robbery:

36.9% Yes
43.0% No
20.1% Don't Know

Q3: Is the government more weak after these two events?

55.2% Yes
34.8% No
10.0% Don't Know

Q4: Should António Costa reshuffle the government?

52.4% Yes
26.6% No
21.0% Don't Know

Poll conducted between 10 and 12 July by Eurosondagem. Polled 1,001 voters. MoE of 3.10%.

According to this poll, the electorate believes the government is more weak and fragile and that the PM should reshuffle the government after these two events. At the same time, the 2 main ministers responsible for the response for these two event shouldn't resign. Weird.

What a strange, indecisive poll.

[Mike88]

Poll from Aximage:

44.0% PS (+0.3)
22.9% PSD (-1.7)
10.1% BE (+0.4)
  7.8% CDU (=)
  5.3% CDS (+0.7)
  7.5% Others/Invalid
  2.4% Undecided

PM confidence:

66.3% António Costa (-2,8)
23.2% Passos Coelho (+1.0)

Poll conducted between 6 and 11 July. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.00%.Link.

Another weird poll. It seems that the Pedrógão Grande disaster, the Tancos robbery and the exoneration of 3 secretaries from the government helped the PS and hurted the PSD. This is puzzling. I understand the PSD drop, their opposition strategy has been, at the least, doubtfull but the PS increase is something i find it hard to sink in. During wildfire seasons with heavy consequences in the ground, governments usually fall: PSD fell in the polls in 2003 as did the PS in 2005. This time is different, it could be because of one or both of the following reasons:

- It's the economy, stupid. The electorate just doesn't care how bad the government managed the wildfire disaster, or the Tancos robbery. They like the economy and that's enough.

- Or, the electorate is putting pressure on the PSD to ditch Passos Coelho at once.

I don't know, the polls seem odd. If this trend continues, it will be interesting to see the share of vote the PSD and PS have in the local elections... It could be completely different.

[Mike88]

The main political leaders are already in the campaign trail:

PM and PS leader, António Costa, in the 1st rally of the PS's candidate for Sintra (Lisbon district).





PSD leader, Passos Coelho, in the 1st rally of the PSD's candidate for Santa Maria da Feira (Aveiro district).

[Mike88]

More posters for the October local elections:

Vila do Conde (Porto district), PSD/CDS candidate:

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Amarante (Porto district), PS candidate:

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Cascais (Lisbon district) PSD/CDS candidate:

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Lisbon CDS candidate:

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Also, a small controversy is haunting the PSD/CDS candidate for Loures (Lisbon district), André Ventura. In an interview, Mr Ventura said that the gypsy community lives only from social care and government subsidies. This created a lot of criticism from the left, particularly the BE, but also from within the PSD and CDS. Mr. Ventura later said he has nothing against the gypsy community but doesn't tolerate those who break the law and are not punished just for being different. Nonetheless, the PSD has condemn such remarks.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How factional is PS? I understand Costa is from the left of the party, but does he have any internal enemies or different power bases to keep happy?