Portugal's politics and elections

[Mike88]

How is Andre Venturas polling in his race?

There aren't still any public polls for Loures. Maybe in the next few days one or two polls may be released, but, yesterday night, i heard a political analyst on TV saying that internal polling in Loures is showing a very good result for André Ventura. We'll see if this is confirmed in public polling.

[Mike88]

The official webpage for the 2017 local elections is already open.



http://www.autarquicas2017.mai.gov.pt/index.html

This page will post official results during election night, will track turnout rates during election day, has all the candidacies for all 308 municipalities plus shows the sample ballots to be given to each voter on election day.

[Mike88]

Universidade Católica poll for Matosinhos (Porto district), 175,000 inhabitants; (Independent/PS incumbent):



Poll conducted on 16 and 17 September. Polled 1,364 voters. MoE of 2.6%.

[Mike88]

Campaign trail news:

Passos Coelho campaigning in Amares (Braga district). Reminds you of anyone?


In Penafiel (Porto district), a young PS member was caught insulting an elderly woman. The elderly woman was waving a flag of the PSD/CDS coalition and a young PS member started insulting the woman and also suggested she should die.

BE and CDU are in a war of words. Catarina Martins has accused the mayors across the country of silence and submission during the Troika years. The problem is that 34 of these mayors are from CDU and Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader, didn't liked what he heard. Jerónimo de Sousa labeled Ms. Martins remarks as "irresponsible" and "unjust".

[Mike88]

Universidade Católica poll for Sintra (Lisbon district), 380,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):



Poll conducted on 17 and 19 September. Polled 1,169 voters. MoE of 2.9%.

IPOM poll for Pombal (Leiria district), 55,000 inhabitants; (PSD incumbent):

41.0% PSD, 4 councillors
36.3% Narciso Mota, 4
13.9% PS, 1
  1.5% CDS
  1.0% CDU
  0.5% BE
  0.3% Amílcar Malhó
  5.5% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted on 14 and 15 September. Polled 703 voters. MoE of 3.6%.

[Mike88]

Interesting info about the PSD bad polling in the big cities:

The polling in the big cities (Lisbon, Gaia and Sintra) seems very bad for the PSD, but in Sintra and Gaia the party is improving their 2013 scores:

PSD/CDS 2013 Gaia score: 19.97%; 2017 Poll score: 22.0%
PSD/CDS 2013 Sintra score: 13.79%; 2017 Poll score: 26.0%

And even in Lisbon, where the PSD is polling, at the moment, 16% and in third place, the PSD, with the CDS, got 22.37% of the vote in 2013. This year, according to the poll, PSD and CDS, if they had ran together, have 33%, a significant increase.

[Mike88]

Conflicting polls for Porto's race:

Universidade Católica poll for Porto (Porto district), 220,000 inhabitants; (Independent incumbent):



Poll conducted on 16 and 17 September. Polled 1,239 voters. MoE of 2.8%.

Aximage poll for Porto (Porto district), 220,000 inhabitants; (Independent incumbent):



Poll conducted between 16 and 19 September. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.0%.

[Mike88]

IPOM poll for São João da Madeira (Aveiro district), 22,000 inhabitants; (PSD/CDS incumbent):



Poll conducted on 15 and 16 September. Polled 614 voters. MoE of 3.9%.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Loures (Lisbon district), 200,000 inhabitants; (CDU incumbent); André Ventura's race:

36.6% CDU, 5 councillors
28.2% PS, 4
18.2% PSD/PPM, 2
  5.0% BE
  2.8% CDS
  9.1% Others/Invalid
 
Poll conducted between 17 and 19 September. Polled 710 voters. MoE of 3.67%.

Eurosondagem poll for Sintra (Lisbon district), 380,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):

42.8% PS, 5/6 councillors
28.5% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT, 3/4
10.0% CDU, 1
  7.0% BE, 0/1
11.7% Others/Invalid
 
Poll conducted between 18 and 20 September. Polled 721 voters. MoE of 3.65%.

Eurosondagem poll for Matosinhos (Porto district), 175,000 inhabitants; (Independent/PS incumbent):

31.9% PS, 4/5 councillors
25.8% Narciso Miranda, 3/4
13.5% António Parada, 2
10.2% PSD, 1
  6.1% CDU, 0/1
  5.1% BE
  1.5% PAN
  5.9% Invalid
 
Poll conducted between 18 and 20 September. Polled 707 voters. MoE of 3.68%.

André Ventura is polling normal for a PSD candidate in Loures; Sintra seems to be a lock for the PS, nonetheless a huge increase in the PSD/CDS share of the vote; Matosinhos is still too close to call.

[Mike88]

Universidade Católica poll for Coimbra (Coimbra district), 135,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):



Poll conducted on 16 and 17 September. Polled 895 voters. MoE of 3.3%.

Coimbra seems to be leaning for the PS, but it will be all about who shows up to vote. Turnout was only 49% in 2013.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for Lisbon (Lisbon district), 520,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):

47.0% PS, 9/10 councillors
12.6% CDS, 2/3
10.9% PSD, 2/3
  8.5% CDU, 2
  5.5% BE, 1
10.4% Others/Invalid
  5.0% Undecided

45.0% Turnout

Poll conducted between 17 and 20 September. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

This poll is much more favourable for the PS than Universidade Católica's. Like Porto's race, Lisbon's race has some conflicting numbers. Turnout will continue in record low levels: 45%.

[VPH]

Cannot say thank you enough for posting this! I don't get time to scour all the news sources, so having the polls in one place is fantastic. I found it interesting to see PS so close in Sao Joao de Madeira. Always thought of that place as right-leaning. I have some family there who talks about it that way.

[Mike88]

Cannot say thank you enough for posting this! I don't get time to scour all the news sources, so having the polls in one place is fantastic. I found it interesting to see PS so close in Sao Joao de Madeira. Always thought of that place as right-leaning. I have some family there who talks about it that way.

You're welcome!

São João da Madeira is, even with these poll results, quite right leaning. The last time the PS won here was in... 1976, so a very long time ago. But since then, only CDS and PSD have dominated here. Nonetheless, in 2013, the PSD almost lost to the PS and failed to retain their majority. The mayor wasn't able to run the city and in January 2016, a by-election was held and the PSD/CDS won with a majority. These were the results:

46.3% PSD/CDS, 4 councillors
39.1% PS, 3
  6.5% Independent
  5.3% CDU
  2.6% BE
  0.3% PNR
  3.1% Invalid

According to the poll posted above, the PSD/CDS is making gains and the PS is falling in comparison with the 2016 by-election results.

[Mike88]

UA-CIMAD poll for Aveiro (Aveiro district), 80,000 inhabitants; (PSD/CDS/PPM incumbent):

49.8% PSD/CDS/PPM, 6/7 councillors
11.6% PS, 2/3
  2.8% CDU
  2.4% BE
  0.2% PAN
  9.8% Invalid
23.4% Undecided

Poll conducted between 14 and 20 September. Polled 500 voters. MoE of 4.4%.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for Coimbra (Coimbra district), 135,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):

28.7% PS, 4 councillors
25.7% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT, 3/4
13.4% José Manuel Silva, 1/2
  8.1% BE, 1
  7.2% CDU, 1
  8.5% Invalid
  8.4% Undecided

48.9% Turnout

Poll conducted between 18 and 21 September. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Eurosondagem poll for Funchal (Madeira), 120,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):

43.8% PS/BE/JPP/PDR/NC, 6 councillors
31.8% PSD, 4
10.0% CDS, 1
  5.0% CDU
  3.3% PPM/PURP
  6.1% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted on 20 and 21 September. Polled 777 voters. MoE of 3.50%.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for Oeiras (Lisbon district), 173,000 inhabitants; (Independent incumbent):

36.8% Isaltino Morais, 5 councillors
23.4% Paulo Vistas, 3
11.2% PS, 1
  7.6% CDU, 1
  7.5% PSD/CDS/PPM, 1
  5.8% Invalid
  6.5% Undecided

45.1% Turnout

Poll conducted between 21 and 23 September. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

News from the campaign trail:

Party leaders on the road:

Passos Coelho at the Saturday night rally for the PSD candidate in Paredes (Porto district):


António Costa at a Sunday night rally for the PS candidate in Portalegre (Portalegre district):


Catarina Martins (BE) at a rally in Lisbon:


Assunção Cristas (CDS) in a campaign walkabout in Lisbon:


Jerónimo de Sousa (PCP), talking to voters in Caneças (Lisbon district):


Also a secret and, some say, nonexistent report on the government actions on the Tancos air base robbery in heating up the campaign. Last Saturday, Expresso newspaper disclosed a top secret army report that is devastating to the government. The report accuses the government of being highly incompetent and suggests the weapons that were stolen could have fallen in the hands of radical jihadist in Spain. The PM and the government dismissed the report and called it fake, but Expresso newspaper says it's real and will disclose more of the report in the next few days.

The PSD and CDS are already accusing the minister, and the government, of lying with Passos Coelho suggesting "we need to buy newspapers to know what the government is doing because they will not tell us". The PS, on the other hand, accuses the PSD of being behind the disclosure of this "report".

[Mike88]

Universidade Católica poll for Matosinhos (Porto district), 175,000 inhabitants; (Independent/PS incumbent):




Poll conducted on 23 and 24 September. Polled 1,143 voters. MoE of 2.9%.

Matosinhos has also conflicting poll numbers. Eurosondagem poll has PS and Narciso Miranda neck and neck.

[Mike88]

Major news on the PSD 2018 leadership race:

Rui Rio will announce his candidacy for the PSD leadership either the PSD has a good or bad result on Sunday's local elections.


The fight for the leadership is approaching.

It's now or never for Rui Rio, former mayor of Porto. Observador newspaper is reporting that Mr Rio is preparing an announcement for his candidacy as early as next week. He has been in meetings with party members and critics of Passos Coelho. He apparently even has a campaign website that is ready to go on line.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll for Sintra (Lisbon district), 380,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):

40.4% PS, 5/6 councillors
28.8% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT, 4
11.9% CDU, 1
  6.4% BE, 0/1
  9.1% Others/Invalid
  3.4% Undecided

42.6% Turnout

Poll conducted between 19 and 21 September. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

Universidade Católica poll for Oeiras (Lisbon district), 175,000 inhabitants; (Independent incumbent):

37% Isaltino Morais, 5 councillors
15% PS, 2
15% Paulo Vistas, 2
10% CDU, 1
  7% PSD/CDS/PPM, 1
  3% PAN
  2% BE
  3% Others
  8% Invalid

Poll conducted on 23 and 24 September. Polled 1,195 voters. MoE of 2.8%.

Diário do Minho poll for Braga (Braga district), 183,000 inhabitants; (PSD/CDS/PPM incumbent):

52.5% PSD/CDS/PPM
27.2% PS
  8.1% CDU
  5.9% BE
  1.3% NC
  5.0% Invalid

Will post more information about this poll when it's available.

[Mike88]

Universidade Católica poll for Porto (Porto district), 220,000 inhabitants; (Independent incumbent):



Poll conducted between 23 and 25 September. Polled 1,239 voters. MoE of 2.8%.

Aximage poll for Vila Real de Santo António (Faro district), 20,000 inhabitants; (PSD incumbent):

40.1% PSD, 3/4 councillors
28.8% PS 2/3
10.7% CDU, 1
  2.8% BE
  6.6% Others/Invalid
11.5% Undecided

50.7% Turnout

Poll conducted between 15 and 17 September. Polled 400 voters. MoE of 4.90%.

The Porto poll is creating a big controversy. Rui Moreira says the poll is fake and accuses RTP of public manipulation while Manuel Pizarro just downplayed the poll results. Eurosondagem will probably do also a poll and we'll confirm if Universidade Católica poll is rogue one or not.

[Mike88]

Eurosondagem poll for Guimarães (Braga district), 158,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):

53.5% PS, 7 councillors
31.0% PSD/CDS/PPM/MPT/PPV-CDC, 4
  6.7% CDU, 1
  3.3% BE
  5.5% Invalid

Poll conducted on 22 and 23 September.

[Mike88]

IPOM poll for Batalha (Leiria district), 16,000 inhabitants; (PSD incumbent):

54.2% PSD, 5 councillors
17.9% PS, 1
12.8% CDS, 1
  2.8% CDU
12.3% Invalid

Poll conducted on 21 and 22 September. Polled 658 voters. MoE of 3.80%

[Mike88]

IPOM poll for Leiria (Leiria district), 120,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):

49.9% PS, 7 councillors
26.3% PSD/PPM, 3
  7.5% CDS, 1
  4.3% CDU
  3.2% BE
  0.8% PAN
  8.0% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted on 22 September. Polled 744 voters. MoE of 3.50%

IPOM poll for Marinha Grande (Leiria district), 40,000 inhabitants; (PS incumbent):

39.0% PS, 4 councillors
28.4% CDU, 2
16.1% Aurélio Ferreira, 1
  3.5% PSD/MPT
  3.2% Carlos Logrado
  0.6% BE
  9.0% Others/Invalid

Poll conducted on 22 September. Polled 616 voters. MoE of 3.90%

IPOM poll for Alcobaça (Leiria district), 60,000 inhabitants; (PSD incumbent):

44.4% PSD, 4 councillors
20.4% PS, 1/2
14.7% CDS, 1
10.2% CDU, 0/1
  2.6% BE
  1.3% PDR
  6.3% Invalid

Poll conducted on 20 and 21 September. Polled 716 voters. MoE of 3.50%

Eurosondagem poll for Santa Cruz (Madeira), 43,000 inhabitants; (JPP incumbent):

50.5% JPP, 4/5 councillors
20.0% PSD, 1/2
10.0% PS, 0/1
  4.2% CDS
  4.0% CDU
  3.8% PTP
  2.5% BE
  0.5% PDR
  0.5% PCTP
  0.5% MPT
  3.5% Invalid

Poll conducted on 25 and 26 September. Polled 480 voters. MoE of 4.44%

[Mike88]

IPOM poll for São João da Madeira (Aveiro district), 22,000 inhabitants; (PSD/CDS incumbent):

43.2% PSD/CDS
36.2% PS
  6.5% CDU
  3.8% PAN
  2.2% BE
  8.1% Invalid

Poll conducted on 25 and 26 September. Polled 676 voters. MoE of 3.7%.

Eurosondagem poll for São João da Madeira (Aveiro district), 22,000 inhabitants; (PSD/CDS incumbent):

41.5% PS
41.3% PSD/CDS
  7.3% CDU
  2.8% BE
  1.9% PAN
  5.2% Invalid

Will post more informations about this poll when they become available.