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Author Topic: Portugal's politics and elections (Local elections: 1 Oct 2017)  (Read 38162 times)
Lord Halifax
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« Reply #375 on: July 17, 2017, 02:56:05 pm »
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How factional is PS? I understand Costa is from the left of the party, but does he have any internal enemies or different power bases to keep happy?

He originally came from the right and was tough on law & order as Minister of Justice. He just moved left tactically to get a shot at the leadership.
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Mike88
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« Reply #376 on: July 17, 2017, 02:59:33 pm »
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How factional is PS? I understand Costa is from the left of the party, but does he have any internal enemies or different power bases to keep happy?
Not as much factional as the PSD but a bit yes. You can divide the PS into 2 factions: the moderate wing and left wing where the "Young Turks" from the PS proliferate. The moderate wing are old fashion Socialists who support more talks with the PSD and don't see with good eyes the recent approach to BE and CDU. The left faction doesn't like the PSD one bit and refuse major compromises with them. They much prefer a more "leftwing" PS which can be supported especially by the BE, but also CDU.

Believe it or not but Costa wasn't always from the left faction. He comes from a generation of PS politicians formed during the Guterres government (1995-2002), who were much more willing to negotiate with the PSD rather than BE or CDU. He was very moderate and even liked by many PSD politicians but the circumstances changed in 2015, and the PS desperate need to be in power plus the fear of CDU and BE of less power in unions and in the public sector made Costa to go leftwing.

At the beginning many people in the PS were angry at him for negotiating a government with BE and CDU, Francisco Assis was one of the most vocal, but as the economy grew, the deficit continued controlled and the PS rise in the polls, most criticism has vanished and Costa doesn't have much opposition within his party. Now, do many like what his doing? No, but criticising him right now isn't very wise.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 03:01:44 pm by Mike88 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #377 on: July 18, 2017, 09:55:22 am »
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Also, a small controversy is haunting the PSD/CDS candidate for Loures (Lisbon district), Andr Ventura. In an interview, Mr Ventura said that the gypsy community lives only from social care and government subsidies. This created a lot of criticism from the left, particularly the BE, but also from within the PSD and CDS. Mr. Ventura later said he has nothing against the gypsy community but doesn't tolerate those who break the law and are not punished just for being different. Nonetheless, the PSD has condemn such remarks.

It seems that the CDS has decided to withdrew their support for Andr Ventura after his controversial statements. The party will now present their own candidate for Loures. It seems that race discussion is here to stay in Portugal. After the 18 police officers charged for racism, which sparked a debate about Afro-Portuguese integration, and these statements from the PSD candidate, race integration in Portugal should be a very important political topic. Unfortunately for us, what Mr. Ventura said isn't wrong. Only his tone is wrong. The gypsy community in Portugal, in it's majority, is not well integrated in society so many are left out and only survive by living in social care. Therefore this lack of integration creates clusters of social housing around the big cities where the people living in it, many from other races, live in very poorly conditions, some even in poverty, and apart from the rest of society.

Racism and race exclusion in Portugal is real and politicians should talk about and not be afraid to discuss it. Mr Ventura tone was horribly wrong, but at same time, his right... unfortunately.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #378 on: July 19, 2017, 12:52:26 pm »
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How factional is PS? I understand Costa is from the left of the party, but does he have any internal enemies or different power bases to keep happy?
Not as much factional as the PSD but a bit yes. You can divide the PS into 2 factions: the moderate wing and left wing where the "Young Turks" from the PS proliferate. The moderate wing are old fashion Socialists who support more talks with the PSD and don't see with good eyes the recent approach to BE and CDU. The left faction doesn't like the PSD one bit and refuse major compromises with them. They much prefer a more "leftwing" PS which can be supported especially by the BE, but also CDU.

Believe it or not but Costa wasn't always from the left faction. He comes from a generation of PS politicians formed during the Guterres government (1995-2002), who were much more willing to negotiate with the PSD rather than BE or CDU. He was very moderate and even liked by many PSD politicians but the circumstances changed in 2015, and the PS desperate need to be in power plus the fear of CDU and BE of less power in unions and in the public sector made Costa to go leftwing.

At the beginning many people in the PS were angry at him for negotiating a government with BE and CDU, Francisco Assis was one of the most vocal, but as the economy grew, the deficit continued controlled and the PS rise in the polls, most criticism has vanished and Costa doesn't have much opposition within his party. Now, do many like what his doing? No, but criticising him right now isn't very wise.

Mike88, who would you say is the highest profile person in the PS's moderate wing?

It's hard to pin Costa down, yet even as he seems to be moving back to the moderate wing in governance, I wouldn't quite call him a moderate. So, I mean besides him. Perhaps Fernando Medina?
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Mike88
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« Reply #379 on: July 19, 2017, 01:25:51 pm »
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Mike88, who would you say is the highest profile person in the PS's moderate wing?

It's hard to pin Costa down, yet even as he seems to be moving back to the moderate wing in governance, I wouldn't quite call him a moderate. So, I mean besides him. Perhaps Fernando Medina?

The moderate wing of the PS is quite silenced. Mainly because Costa swings left and right almost every week. If i had to name some of high profile moderate PS politicians i would say Francisco Assis, Vital Moreira, Rui Pereira or Lus Amado, but there isn't an alternative moderate leader inside the PS. That may be a problem for the PS in the long term when Costa, inevitably, becomes a lame duck because many potential PS leaders are very leftwing. People like Joo Galamba or Pedro Nuno Santos are from the "Young Turks" of the PS.

Fernando Medina... well, many people talk about him as a future PS leader, some even called him the "golden boy" of the PS, but i don't know.. His tenure, since 2015, as Lisbon mayor wasn't very surprising, he basically governed under the shadow of Antnio Costa legacy. He has a very important test in the fall local elections. If he maintains the PS majority in Lisbon, he may have a future but if he fails... well, he's history.

Honestly, Antnio Costa is neither moderate nor leftwing. He basically goes with the flow. He may be moderate on Monday, fiscally conservative on Tuesday, full blown left-wing on Wednesday and moderate again on Thursday and Friday.
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Mike88
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« Reply #380 on: July 20, 2017, 10:19:59 am »
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Some good news for the PSD:

In Ribeira da Pena (Vila Real District), the incumbent PS mayor, Rui Vaz Alves, has withdraw from the race citing he doesn't have the necessary conditions to run for reelection. The PS will nominate a new candidate in the next few days. This might be excellent news for the PSD. They choose the former mayor of Ribeira da Pena, Agostinho Pinto, to run this time. He was barred from running in 2013 due to term limitations but he was very popular during his tenure, winning election with around 60% of vote. This could be a PSD gain.

On the other hand, in Vidigueira (Beja District) the PSD/CDS candidate, Guido Pires, also withdraw from the race. The PSD will nominate a new candidate in the next few days, but here the impact is basically null because in 2013 the PSD/CDS only won 7% of the votes. The race will be decided between PS and CDU, but CDU has the upper hand here, as the PS, since 1976, only won 2 elections here.
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Mike88
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« Reply #381 on: July 21, 2017, 07:27:02 am »
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Poll for Funchal by Eurosondagem: (compared with January poll)

42.5% PS/BE/JPP/PDR/NC (-5.5)
30.8% PSD (+5.0)
10.0% CDS (+1.3)
  5.5% Ind/PPM/PURP (-0.5)
  5.0% CDU (-1.3)
  1.2% MPT
  0.8% PTP
  4.2% Blank/Invalid

This poll has good and bad news for both PS and PSD. The good news for PS is that their still in the lead, and the bad news for the PSD is their second place. But the trend seems favourable for the PSD. In comparison with the January poll, there was a 10 point swing against the PS, and that is favouring the PSD candidate. If the trend continues, the Funchal mayoral race could be quite close. I'm still saying this one is a Tossup. It can go either for the PS or PSD.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2017, 07:28:55 am by Mike88 »Logged
Mike88
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« Reply #382 on: July 21, 2017, 07:59:31 pm »
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A little bit of comic relief...

The best campaign poster, till date, for the October elections:


Quote
I'm a candidate.

Cool  Grin

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Mike88
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« Reply #383 on: July 22, 2017, 01:45:05 pm »
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Update on the local elections:

The final deadline to submit candidacies, August 8th, is approaching and most candidates are already in pre-campaign mode.

Right now, the candidacies, by party, already announced are as follow:

297 PS*
297 PSD*
201 CDU
  90 CDS*
  87 BE
  18 PAN
    6 PTP
  12 MPT
  11 PNR
    2 PPM
    5 JPP
    1 L/TDA
    4 PDR
    7 NC
    1 PPV/CDC
    1 MAS
  75 Independent

PCTP, and PURP are the only parties that haven't announced any candidates, but they might deliver some candidacies before or on August 8th.

*PS, PSD and CDS have celebrated many coalitions with other smaller parties and, some, between PSD/CDS. Right now, with the date available, the coalitions formed are as follow:

191 PSD alone
  73 PSD/CDS
  13 PSD/CDS/MPT/PPM
    5 PSD/CDS/PPM
    5 PSD/CDS/MPT
    4 PSD/PPM
    4 PSD/MPT
    1 PSD/MPT/PPM
    1 PSD/NC

295 PS alone
    1 PS/JPP
    1 PS/BE/JPP/PDR/NC

  65 CDS alone
    4 CDS/PSD
  10 CDS/PPM/MPT
    7 CDS/PPM
    2 CDS/MPT
    1 CDS/NC/PPM
    1 CDS/NC

The number of PSD/CDS coalitions is the highest ever, reaching 100 candidacies. That number may increase a bit in the next few days when many candidacies final lists are unveiled. The number of candidacies for other parties/Independent movements may also increase dramatically in the next few days as many parties start submitting candidacies to local courts across the country.
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