Someone reassure me

[angus]

What's next for the Clinton camp? What are we going to do to stop this nosedive?

I guess Eugene Robinson read your post.  Check this link out.

[Person Man]

Clinton is still leading in most polls and in most of the crucial swing states, is she not?

The polls are still reacting to pneumonia-gate. Next week they'll be reacting to conflicts of interest, birtherism, "gas chambers" and tax returns. Then it'll be time for the first debate, and they'll react to that.

If Clinton doesn't do anything wrong this next week.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can't. I'm just as scared.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

I can't. I'm just as scared.

That's my boy!

[Devout Centrist]

The first step is accept the reality. The second step is to pull the trigger.

[Sir Mohamed]

What's next for the Clinton camp? What are we going to do to stop this nosedive?

Beats me. America looks ready to elect Trump. Romney/OH/FL/NV/IA/ME-2 + one of PA/MI/WI/VA/CO/NH will be the map.

[Gustaf]

People here freak out too much in all directions. My feeling is still that a candidate that has trailed almost all the time is unlikely to end up ahead.

[Hammy]

People here freak out too much in all directions. My feeling is still that a candidate that has trailed almost all the time is unlikely to end up ahead.

The problem is that this election seems far more unstable than previous ones--all that needs to happen is for the election to coincide with Trump simply having a good day or two or Clinton having a bad few days, even if 90% of the voters regret it two days later, it won't matter, it'll be over.

[Wisconsin+17]

Well, Trump needs NC and VA to win. VA is C+3.5 on the edge of the MOE making it about 85 percent for Clinton.

NC is about 60 percent Clinton so that puts Trumps odds at about 6 percent, or 94 percent chance of a Clinton victory.

[Mr. Morden]

People here freak out too much in all directions. My feeling is still that a candidate that has trailed almost all the time is unlikely to end up ahead.

The problem is that this election seems far more unstable than previous ones.

The polls don't seem to be particularly unstable to me....unless your only point of reference is 2012.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Well, Trump needs NC and VA to win. VA is C+3.5 on the edge of the MOE making it about 85 percent for Clinton.

NC is about 60 percent Clinton so that puts Trumps odds at about 6 percent, or 94 percent chance of a Clinton victory.

... or WI/PA/CO/MI/NH. The probability to win one of them, is not that low.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

People here freak out too much in all directions. My feeling is still that a candidate that has trailed almost all the time is unlikely to end up ahead.

The problem is that this election seems far more unstable than previous ones.

The polls don't seem to be particularly unstable to me....unless your only point of reference is 2012.

There is still plenty of undeciders/shy third parti voters. I wouldn't call it unstable though, but more... uncertain. I mean there is cleary a huge difference between Obama leading Romney by 3 points 51% vs 48%, and Clinton leading Trump by 3 points 42% vs 39%. In polls.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Clinton is running against Trump, you see.  She just needs to stop talking and let the attention turn towards Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, Trump needs NC and VA to win. VA is C+3.5 on the edge of the MOE making it about 85 percent for Clinton.

NC is about 60 percent Clinton so that puts Trumps odds at about 6 percent, or 94 percent chance of a Clinton victory.

No no no.  You are treating these as independent variables, but they aren't.  It's all very well to assign a probability of 85% to Clinton winning VA (and I think this is a pretty good estimate) -- but if she loses VA, it indicates that she's lost sufficient support nationwide that there's a very high chance, perhaps 90%, of her losing NC as well.  So we could say something like this:

P(T wins VA) = 15% (the complement of C's winning probability).
P(T wins NC given that he also wins VA) = 90%. 

P(T wins both) = the product of the above, or 13.5%.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Nate thinks, we should wait for next week's polls to see if it is permanent shift or not.


A fun remark about Atlas Red Hacks though

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We know, who he is talking about, right?

[Wisconsin+17]

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You're forgetting that Hillary has many paths to victory, and the aggregate percentages in Florida, etc.

[Wisconsin+17]

O12 numbers in VA, are about where Hillary's polling in VA is now. I'm not sure why democrats are worried about an election where Hillary is polling at O 12 levels.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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You're forgetting that Hillary has many paths to victory, and the aggregate percentages in Florida, etc.

No, I'm not.  I was responding to his original calculation, which only dealt with VA and NC.  And if you reread my post, I clearly stated that, based on those assumptions, the probably of Trump winning both states was 13.5%.  I said nothing about his overall chances of victory.

[Hermit For Peace]

Debates, good organization, and attacks on Trump, rather than his supporters. One possible positive outcome from the tightening of the polls is that it may help Democrats realize that this race isn't over, and that we can't take victory for granted. Hopefully the threat of a President Trump will become more real to them, and energize them to come out and work hard to get Hillary elected.

If I were a Hillary supporter, I'd take solace in this.

As a Trump supporter, I take solace in Hillary's seeming inability to come off as sincere about anything.

LOL!

[GeorgiaModerate]

O12 numbers in VA, are about where Hillary's polling in VA is now. I'm not sure why democrats are worried about an election where Hillary is polling at O 12 levels.

(Speaking as an independent, not a Democrat) I think she's extremely likely to win VA, and in fact I think she's quite likely to win the election.  However, Trump does have realistic victory paths that don't include VA.  The states are not swinging uniformly from 2012; Clinton could easily do as well or better than Obama 2012 in VA while doing much worse in IA, OH, NV, etc.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I really like bipolar reactions of certain people. One second we have "blue firewall will hold no matter what, Hillary can't lose". The next we have "omg this is over".

[Antonio the Sixth]

People here freak out too much in all directions. My feeling is still that a candidate that has trailed almost all the time is unlikely to end up ahead.

The problem is that this election seems far more unstable than previous ones.

The polls don't seem to be particularly unstable to me....unless your only point of reference is 2012.

God how I miss 2012. Those were the days.

[Hermit For Peace]

To me it's really a shame that someone who runs on a bigot, racist, ...phobia, hate, exclusion ticket is getting so much attention. That's not what our President is supposed to be about. We are supposed to embrace our differences because our country is made up of DIVERSITY. It's who we are and it's our strength.

I am embarrassed for me and my fellow American citizens that Trump has gotten as far as he has. I look at the world of other countries and I want to apologize to all of them. This is not who we are. This is a fringe element in our society.

Love or hate Hillary, buy into the hype of her or not, she has the political experience and the temperament to see our country through these trying times. She's already been there and done that, been working in the field of politics for a long time. She doesn't trash everyone she meets, she isn't afraid that the size of her penis doesn't measure up, or the size of her hands....she can stand up to anybody under the sun.

This election is too important to allow some misguided citizens to vote in a major dufus who has his small hands in the till all over the place, including countries all over the world, who is on trial for fraud, who divides us instead of unites us. That is not kind of person who should ever be in charge of this great country of ours.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

^^^^^

[Cassius]

I've never quite understood the 'omg if we elect Trump it'll be so embarrassing' line of thought. I mean, consider the facts and the countries. Russia - ruled over by illiberal strongman Putin; China - a dictatorship; India - a country whose current Prime Minister is a Hindu Nationalist; Japan - has a cabinet composed primarily of historical revisionists often ill at ease with the idea that Japan committed any war crimes in World War II at all. Look at Europe, where in many countries the parties of the moderate middle are headlong decline/retreat - an FPO candidate stands a good chance of becoming the next Austrian President and Marine Le Pen is pretty much guaranteed a place in the second round of next years French Presidential Election, whilst hard right parties in the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany continue to gain considerable ground.

Really and truly, is Trump that embarrassing a leader in this context?