Can we talk about how Republicans are blowing pickup opportunities?

[ElectionsGuy]

This cycle has a lot of states and open gubernatorial contests favorable to Republicans - Montana, Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana, etc. yet Republicans are down in the polls and not favored to pickup anything. They're down in North Carolina (a loss if Cooper wins), West Virginia (good job, Bill Cole) where they definitely should be winning (not saying its over, but its a toss-up when it should be R favored), Missouri (an open contest in a decently red state), and they are barely holding on to Indiana as well. Montana is a good state but the incumbent governor is pretty popular, so nothing much you can do there when the R bench is squat. And then the open seats in New Hampshire and Vermont are complete unknowns at this point. Even if the R's pick up one or both of those, it might just cover North Carolina where McCrory may lose. Even though they have 31 governors with running the table in the midterms, this is going to bite them in the ass later if things turn out the way they are now when Democrats eventually get back a majority of governorships.

TLDR: This gubernatorial year should be very R favored, picking up 3-4 seats. Instead, they're lucky to break even.

[Xing]

I don't think it's just that Republicans have done a poor job. Democrats definitely took recruitment at the statewide level more seriously this year. They scored several good candidates (Chris Koster, Roy Cooper, John Gregg, and while I hate Jim Justice, he's probably their best chance at holding WV), and the Democratic incumbents just aren't unpopular enough to be vulnerable.

[Dr. Arch]

I don't think it's just that Republicans have done a poor job. Democrats definitely took recruitment at the statewide level more seriously this year. They scored several good candidates (Chris Koster, Roy Cooper, John Gregg, and while I hate Jim Justice, he's probably their best chance at holding WV), and the Democratic incumbents just aren't unpopular enough to be vulnerable.

[smoltchanov]

Well, i am a pragmatist to the utmost. You need an A-class recruitment, tailored to the state's mores, to be successfull. Democrats needed Justice to be even competitive in West Virginia, and, as "Republican-lite" he may seem to some "progressives" - he will be more morderate then Cole, and he is Democrat's only chance to hold West Virginia governorship. Finita la comedia... The same situation (in reverse) - in Vermont, where Republicans needed Phil Scott (and no one else, despite him being "anathema" to many conservative activists) to be even competitive...

But, generally, yes - Democrats have very good recrruits in many "potentially problematic" states this year: Missouri and Indiana, for example. Some strong incumbents seeking reelection (Montana). And so on.. BTW - not sure about New Hampshire - BOTH primaries there promise to be bruising, and they are very late...

[windjammer]

Well, yes, Republicans have massively failed this year regarding recruits.

Regarding gubernational elections:
-WV: they definitely could have nominated someone better than Bill Cole.
-MO: they failed to coalesce behind one candidate and got a nasty primary fight, and nominated in the end someone who doesn't seem to be as great as some people seem to think (HE WILL BE THE 2020 REPUBLICAN NOMINEE).
-IN: they nominated an untested candidate, I think he should prevail but having nominated a tested candidate like Brooks would definitely have improved their chances.
-MT: it seems they have nominated an untested businessman. While democrats are definitely favoured, maybe they should have tried to run a decent candidate like a state senator or something like that?
-NC:  NC republicans have been a utter disaster, they started a nasty fight regarding transgender bathrooms and it backfired completely.
-VT: well on this one I recognize they recruited the best possible candidate.
Regarding the senate, well, while they definitely recruited a decent candidate for NV, their candidate for CO is definitely a big JOKE.

Regarding the House, for many open seats the most unelectable candidate won as well, I'm thinking about Claudia Tenney for example and the candidate in MI-01.


This cycle has been a utter disaster for republicans, it is felt a lot for the gubernational elections because there are a lot of open seats/highly competitive races in rep leaning states. It is less felt in the senate because of many incumbents running for reelection. I'm predicting right now a +8 gop in 2018, but if they blow up for their recruitment in 2018 as they do in 2016, that might look like more a +5-+6 pick up instead of +8.

[Kingpoleon]

-MT: it seems they have nominated an untested businessman. While democrats are definitely favoured, maybe they should have tried to run a decent candidate like a state senator or something like that?

Debby Barrett, Denny Rehberg, Jeff Essmann, and Matthew Rosendale would all have been B-listers at least. Ryan Zinke and Timothy Fox would have been solid nominees, too.

[Young Conservative]

-MT: it seems they have nominated an untested businessman. While democrats are definitely favoured, maybe they should have tried to run a decent candidate like a state senator or something like that?

Debby Barrett, Denny Rehberg, Jeff Essmann, and Matthew Rosendale would all have been B-listers at least. Ryan Zinke and Timothy Fox would have been solid nominees, too.

I think the Montana GOP is saving Zinke or Fox to challenge Tester in 2018.

[Heisenberg]

-MT: it seems they have nominated an untested businessman. While democrats are definitely favoured, maybe they should have tried to run a decent candidate like a state senator or something like that?

Debby Barrett, Denny Rehberg, Jeff Essmann, and Matthew Rosendale would all have been B-listers at least. Ryan Zinke and Timothy Fox would have been solid nominees, too.

I think the Montana GOP is saving Zinke or Fox to challenge Tester in 2018.

Zinke likely takes down Tester in 2018, and Fox runs for Governor in 2020 when open. Rosendale or someone can run for the House seat Zinke vacates.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Not like they did in 2010 and 2012, which was a complete debacle on that front.

[Buffalo Bill]

Republicans will lose IN, IL, and WI from 2010, but pick up NV.  This leaves them with a 52-48 majority. 

[KingSweden]

-MT: it seems they have nominated an untested businessman. While democrats are definitely favoured, maybe they should have tried to run a decent candidate like a state senator or something like that?

Debby Barrett, Denny Rehberg, Jeff Essmann, and Matthew Rosendale would all have been B-listers at least. Ryan Zinke and Timothy Fox would have been solid nominees, too.

I think the Montana GOP is saving Zinke or Fox to challenge Tester in 2018.

Zinke likely takes down Tester in 2018, and Fox runs for Governor in 2020 when open. Rosendale or someone can run for the House seat Zinke vacates.

I think this is likely. I also think Fox easily wins that 2020 race

[Figueira]

-MT: it seems they have nominated an untested businessman. While democrats are definitely favoured, maybe they should have tried to run a decent candidate like a state senator or something like that?

Debby Barrett, Denny Rehberg, Jeff Essmann, and Matthew Rosendale would all have been B-listers at least. Ryan Zinke and Timothy Fox would have been solid nominees, too.

I think the Montana GOP is saving Zinke or Fox to challenge Tester in 2018.

Zinke likely takes down Tester in 2018, and Fox runs for Governor in 2020 when open. Rosendale or someone can run for the House seat Zinke vacates.

I think this is likely. I also think Fox easily wins that 2020 race

I don't know who Timothy Fox is, but I wouldn't be so sure. Montana is not solidly Republican except on the presidential level. And this isn't a holdover from Montana being a Democratic state (which it never was).

[Heisenberg]

-MT: it seems they have nominated an untested businessman. While democrats are definitely favoured, maybe they should have tried to run a decent candidate like a state senator or something like that?

Debby Barrett, Denny Rehberg, Jeff Essmann, and Matthew Rosendale would all have been B-listers at least. Ryan Zinke and Timothy Fox would have been solid nominees, too.

I think the Montana GOP is saving Zinke or Fox to challenge Tester in 2018.

Zinke likely takes down Tester in 2018, and Fox runs for Governor in 2020 when open. Rosendale or someone can run for the House seat Zinke vacates.

I think this is likely. I also think Fox easily wins that 2020 race

I don't know who Timothy Fox is, but I wouldn't be so sure. Montana is not solidly Republican except on the presidential level. And this isn't a holdover from Montana being a Democratic state (which it never was).

Tim Fox is the state's Attorney General, who is likely to win reelection this year.

[JMT]

-MT: it seems they have nominated an untested businessman. While democrats are definitely favoured, maybe they should have tried to run a decent candidate like a state senator or something like that?

Debby Barrett, Denny Rehberg, Jeff Essmann, and Matthew Rosendale would all have been B-listers at least. Ryan Zinke and Timothy Fox would have been solid nominees, too.

I think the Montana GOP is saving Zinke or Fox to challenge Tester in 2018.

Zinke likely takes down Tester in 2018, and Fox runs for Governor in 2020 when open. Rosendale or someone can run for the House seat Zinke vacates.

I agree. Zinke runs for Senate in 2018, and Fox runs for Governor in 2020 (when Bullock is term limited). I think the GOP knows they won't win the Gov race this year, their candidate seems like a sacrificial lamb

[Nyvin]

It would appear Sununu has an advantage in NH if nothing else (for now).