IL-SEN: Which Republican would have won GOP nomination if Kirk retired/step down

[Suburbia]

Illinois Senator Mark Kirk, a moderate Republican is the most vulnerable senator in 2016. He suffered a stroke in January 2012 that paralyzed him somewhat, but still ran for reelection. If he had stepped down this year, which Republican would be running in this Senate race?

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Adam Kinzinger, most likely. Young incumbent from Joliet who's a military vet, strong fundraiser, not controversial, and has a few terms under his belt.

On a side note, I think it'd be hilarious if Jim Ardis ever tried to run statewide.

[Heisenberg]

Adam Kinzinger would also probably go for it, he seems ambitious, and also has military service (good to have when running against Duckworth), pretty moderate and inoffensive as well.

[PPT Spiral]

There's a reason why Kinzinger wouldn't go for it even if he wanted to.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

There's a reason why Kinzinger wouldn't go for it even if he wanted to.

What, Aaron Schock?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Any ambitious GOP politician would avoid such an unwinnable race.

[Vega]

Had Aaron Schock not imploded than he probably would have had a shot.

[Maxwell]

none of them.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Had Aaron Schock not imploded than he probably would have had a shot.

Well, that's what you get for lying to the government about how much money they owe you for mileage. He was my congressman for a while, and, boy, are people in that district disgusted with him now.

[JerryArkansas]

Kinzinger wouldn't have been able to do it.  Like others have said, he does have many things in his closet, like himself.

[Xing]

Probably a sacrificial lamb, since Republicans would be writing this race off.

[SATW]

Kinzinger wouldn't have been able to do it.  Like others have said, he does have many things in his closet, like himself.

Do you have any actual evidence of this? or is more left-wing lusting after attractive republican men?

[RogueBeaver]

Kinzinger might've been interested but ultimately demurs since he knows the Blue Wall is too high. Kirk's seat was an obvious rental even in 2010.

[smoltchanov]

No one. The only one i could theoretically imagine is Jim Edgar, but he is long done with politics...

[JerryArkansas]

Kinzinger wouldn't have been able to do it.  Like others have said, he does have many things in his closet, like himself.

Do you have any actual evidence of this? or is more left-wing lusting after attractive republican men?

He's eh, but the closeness to Aaron is telling.   Mostly because of that.

[jamestroll]

Republicans are able to win statewide in Illinois.. but there has to be special circumstance or a very Republican year.

Kirk won in 2010, Rauner won in 2014.. 2016 is not shaping up to be a Republican year, it is shaping up to be a neutral year at best for the Republicans. It will be next to impossible for Kirk to pull over the finish line. Also, he has not done anything in particular to be popular in Illinois.

Rauner may have a better shot for re-election in 2018. He does seem too conservative for the state. However, this is a Governors election, not a Senate election, so dynamics will be different.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In 2004, another Ryan ran for open Senate seat, and he still was trailing Obama. IL and WI was gonna flip anyways just like Portman was the favorite

[Green Line]

Kinzinger wouldn't have been able to do it.  Like others have said, he does have many things in his closet, like himself.

Do you have any actual evidence of this? or is more left-wing lusting after attractive republican men?

He's eh, but the closeness to Aaron is telling.   Mostly because of that.

Adam Kinzinger is married.  Seriously what are you talking about.

[Heisenberg]

Kinzinger wouldn't have been able to do it.  Like others have said, he does have many things in his closet, like himself.

Do you have any actual evidence of this? or is more left-wing lusting after attractive republican men?

He's eh, but the closeness to Aaron is telling.   Mostly because of that.

Adam Kinzinger is married.  Seriously what are you talking about.

He was engaged to a female Air Force officer a while ago, but they broke off. He is currently single, but has had girlfriends since IIRC.

[JerryArkansas]

Kinzinger wouldn't have been able to do it.  Like others have said, he does have many things in his closet, like himself.

Do you have any actual evidence of this? or is more left-wing lusting after attractive republican men?

He's eh, but the closeness to Aaron is telling.   Mostly because of that.

Adam Kinzinger is married.  Seriously what are you talking about.

Unless the dude had some shotgun wedding, he isn't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kirk also with Murkowski, Collins & Heller endorsed Garland. Kirk would have been saved allowing Garland on CRT. But, McConnell held out notwithstanding TRUMP ascendency and now Garland will be assured a vote
 

[Suburbia]

Republicans are able to win statewide in Illinois.. but there has to be special circumstance or a very Republican year.

Kirk won in 2010, Rauner won in 2014.. 2016 is not shaping up to be a Republican year, it is shaping up to be a neutral year at best for the Republicans. It will be next to impossible for Kirk to pull over the finish line. Also, he has not done anything in particular to be popular in Illinois.

Rauner may have a better shot for re-election in 2018. He does seem too conservative for the state. However, this is a Governors election, not a Senate election, so dynamics will be different.

He might be running against Sen. Dick Durbin, who some think may run for Governor in 2018 since he's getting bored by the dysfunctional Congressional times that we are living in.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/27/politics/dick-durbin-illinois-governors-race/

If Durbin beats Rauner in November 2018, and resigns his Senate seat by early January 2019, Rauner could:

1) Appoint himself to the Senate seat
2) Appoint Bob Dold, or some other Congressional Republican, statewide Republican etc.

[Maxwell]

Kinzinger wouldn't have been able to do it.  Like others have said, he does have many things in his closet, like himself.

Do you have any actual evidence of this? or is more left-wing lusting after attractive republican men?

He's eh, but the closeness to Aaron is telling.   Mostly because of that.

Adam Kinzinger is married.  Seriously what are you talking about.

so was Larry Craig.

[Figueira]

This race would have been the opposite of South Dakota, Montana, or West Virginia in 2014.

[PAK Man]

I once read an interview with Kirk where they were asking him about the Illinois Republican bench and who would seek higher office, and one person he brought up was Peter Roskam. Given that he lost the whip race to Steve Scalise, it could certainly be a possibility. Roskam seems reasonably popular (he actually beat Duckworth in 2006 in a previous version of his seat when it was open) though the 6th District is his for as long as he wants it, too.