Which states will be called as soon as the polls close?

[Xing]

This is my guess. Note that this doesn't mean I think every state in gray will be close.

[Dr. Arch]

Uhhhhhhhhhh. Looks about right. Were NV or MI called at closing in 2012?

[IceSpear]

Uhhhhhhhhhh. Looks about right. Were NV or MI called at closing in 2012?

MI was. NV took forever to call even though Obama won it comfortably in the end.

[Dr. Arch]

Uhhhhhhhhhh. Looks about right. Were NV or MI called at closing in 2012?

MI was. NV took forever to call even though Obama won it comfortably in the end.

MI will be called then.

[SirMuxALot]

Probably right.

I think the really careful outfits will hold back these states a little bit, but still call reasonably quick: IN, LA, NM, MN.

[Xing]

Uhhhhhhhhhh. Looks about right. Were NV or MI called at closing in 2012?

MI was. NV took forever to call even though Obama won it comfortably in the end.

MI will be called then.

I thought about MI, but some networks might be more cautious. NV also wasn't called right away in 2008, even thought Obama won it by 12.

[SirMuxALot]

I thought about MI, but some networks might be more cautious.

True.  Networks are scared to death of pulling a FL 2000 again, so they'll be more careful than they need to be.

[IceSpear]

So the only differences between your map and 2012 are MN/OR (weren't called right away in 2012) and TX/UT/MI (were called right away)?

[Xing]

So the only differences between your map and 2012 are MN/OR (weren't called right away in 2012) and TX/UT/MI (were called right away)?

I believe Alaska was also called right away in 2012, even though it wasn't in 2008, when the margin was wider.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Looks like a good map. I might take away NM. Johnson is a big unknown factor there. His support is dropping for sure, but I'm not sure how much it will drop there.

[peterthlee]

AL, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, ID, IL, KY, LA, ME (at-large), MD, MA, MI, MN, NE, NV, NJ, NM, NY, OK, OR, PA, RI, TN, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI and WY.

[Hammy]

This is my guess. Note that this doesn't mean I think every state in gray will be close.

Add Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota and Indiana to the map--the networks tend to be weird with the first three and wait an hour or so to call them regardless of the margin (poor exit polling maybe?)

[Tirnam]

What about Florida? In 2012, when all the polls closed in Florida, at 8pm, 41% of the ballots were already counted.
This year around 70% of the votes in Florida will be early votes, they are counted first and maybe we will be at 50% of the vote in at 8pm, if there is a clear trend in favor of Clinton (maybe a 4-5% Clinton win at the end) will it be enough for the media to call Florida at closing time?

[andrew_c]

The media would be very careful when it comes to calling Florida. I think it is extremely unlikely for it to be called before 10pm ET.

[Gustaf]

I think they'll be extra careful with calling states because there is so much confusion and uncertainty this election. But who knows.