Can you Democrats please stop panicking?

[ursulahx]

I've just been telling a friend that I am supremely confident in a Clinton victory based on data, fundamentals, and several other factors. I also observed that, despite this, I am kept awake at night.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Panicking is healthy here. It is the manifestation of a self-preservation instinct.

Yup, exactly.

[Hermit For Peace]

I know of a reputable psychic who said that Hillary is going to win by 63% to Trump's whatever % he gets. She said that in spite of the media and their mishandling and cherry picking of poll data where they are misrepresenting and distorting the truth, this is not a close race. Hillary is solidly ahead of Trump and is going to win hand's down.

Sounds good to me.

We'll see if she is correct.

[Adam Griffin]

3) Trump has for the entirety of the campaign had a peak in polling: 44%. With the exception of the short-lived convention bounce, this is where his aggregate performance tops out at before dropping again. This is where he is right now.

#JustSaying

[Bojack Horseman]

Why shouldn't we be panicking? Hillary has gone from a 2008 landslide to winning with barely 270 electoral votes in a freaking month and a half. Despite Donald Trump continuing to make insensitive racial comments this week, Ohio flips red and we're continuing to tank even in blue states. I'm seriously about ready to print out an immigration application to Canada just in case.

[ursulahx]

Why shouldn't we be panicking? Hillary has gone from a 2008 landslide to winning with barely 270 electoral votes in a freaking month and a half.

Yes, and there is another freaking month and a half left to go. This could all change again. (Remember things can go up as well as down - a Clinton landslide is still not impossible...)

[Mr. Smith]

Why shouldn't we be panicking? Hillary has gone from a 2008 landslide to winning with barely 270 electoral votes in a freaking month and a half.

Yes, and there is another freaking month and a half left to go. This could all change again. (Remember things can go up as well as down - a Clinton landslide is still not impossible...)

It rarely works out that way.

The person who leads by being above the fray has historically always ended up falling bad in the last stretch.

It happened to Dewey, Carter's re-election efforts, Bush Sr, why's Hillary different?

[Virginiá]

Why shouldn't we be panicking? Hillary has gone from a 2008 landslide to winning with barely 270 electoral votes in a freaking month and a half.

Yes, and there is another freaking month and a half left to go. This could all change again. (Remember things can go up as well as down - a Clinton landslide is still not impossible...)

It can and things surely will change, but what has worried me for a while now is how Trump can be this awful and ridiculous and still be cutting it close like this. I don't necessarily think all, or even most Trump supporters are nasty, deceitful and generally terrible like him, but the fact that they are willing to overlook such behavior really hurts my opinion of them.

That said, I still don't think Trump is going to win. I'm more worried that Clinton will have blown a rare opportunity to destroy Republicans in a single election cycle.

[Wisconsin+17]

Dims blew that when they nominated Clinton over Bernie.

[KingSweden]

Why shouldn't we be panicking? Hillary has gone from a 2008 landslide to winning with barely 270 electoral votes in a freaking month and a half.

Yes, and there is another freaking month and a half left to go. This could all change again. (Remember things can go up as well as down - a Clinton landslide is still not impossible...)

It can and things surely will change, but what has worried me for a while now is how Trump can be this awful and ridiculous and still be cutting it close like this. I don't necessarily think all, or even most Trump supporters are nasty, deceitful and generally terrible like him, but the fact that they are willing to overlook such behavior really hurts my opinion of them.

That said, I still don't think Trump is going to win. I'm more worried that Clinton will have blown a rare opportunity to destroy Republicans in a single election cycle.

Yeah, I'm with you there. I think things may just be too damn polarized/gerrymandered for it to have been a single-cycle blow, though.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Why shouldn't we be panicking? Hillary has gone from a 2008 landslide to winning with barely 270 electoral votes in a freaking month and a half.

Yes, and there is another freaking month and a half left to go. This could all change again. (Remember things can go up as well as down - a Clinton landslide is still not impossible...)

It can and things surely will change, but what has worried me for a while now is how Trump can be this awful and ridiculous and still be cutting it close like this. I don't necessarily think all, or even most Trump supporters are nasty, deceitful and generally terrible like him, but the fact that they are willing to overlook such behavior really hurts my opinion of them.

That said, I still don't think Trump is going to win. I'm more worried that Clinton will have blown a rare opportunity to destroy Republicans in a single election cycle.

Yeah, I'm with you there. I think things may just be too damn polarized/gerrymandered for it to have been a single-cycle blow, though.

Yeah... flipping the House was never going to happen this cycle. OTOH, Clinton might be threatening the Senate, which is sad because we had a really good map this year (before Strickland collapsed and Rubio jumped back in)

[Bojack Horseman]

Dims blew that when they nominated Clinton over Bernie.

If Bernie were the nominee, he'd get crushed like Mondale did. There's a reason Republicans didn't attack him in the primary: they wanted to run against a crazy old socialist. They would have flooded the airwaves with ads like this and this and this and he'd lose probably the same map that George McGovern did in 1972.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dims blew that when they nominated Clinton over Bernie.

If Bernie were the nominee, he'd get crushed like Mondale did. There's a reason Republicans didn't attack him in the primary: they wanted to run against a crazy old socialist. They would have flooded the airwaves with ads like this and this and this and he'd lose probably the same map that George McGovern did in 1972.

I don't think it would have been that bad.  The increasing polarization since 1972 has made some states almost impossible for Democrats to lose.  I'd guess something like this, give or take a state or two:

[ag]

Dims blew that when they nominated Clinton over Bernie.

If Bernie were the nominee, he'd get crushed like Mondale did. There's a reason Republicans didn't attack him in the primary: they wanted to run against a crazy old socialist. They would have flooded the airwaves with ads like this and this and this and he'd lose probably the same map that George McGovern did in 1972.

If Bernie were the nominee, Trump would have been organizing pogroms by now.

[Arbitrage1980]

Dims blew that when they nominated Clinton over Bernie.

If Bernie were the nominee, he'd get crushed like Mondale did. There's a reason Republicans didn't attack him in the primary: they wanted to run against a crazy old socialist. They would have flooded the airwaves with ads like this and this and this and he'd lose probably the same map that George McGovern did in 1972.

Bernie would have lost to Trump decisively but nothing like the scale of McGovern or Mondale. Given the polarization of the parties, those types of landslides are not gonna happen, barring something truly exceptional. Sanders would still win Hawaii, Washington, California, Illinois, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New York, Massachusetts, Vermont, at the least. So his floor is around 150 electoral votes.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Why shouldn't we be panicking? Hillary has gone from a 2008 landslide to winning with barely 270 electoral votes in a freaking month and a half.

Yes, and there is another freaking month and a half left to go. This could all change again. (Remember things can go up as well as down - a Clinton landslide is still not impossible...)

It can and things surely will change, but what has worried me for a while now is how Trump can be this awful and ridiculous and still be cutting it close like this. I don't necessarily think all, or even most Trump supporters are nasty, deceitful and generally terrible like him, but the fact that they are willing to overlook such behavior really hurts my opinion of them.

That said, I still don't think Trump is going to win. I'm more worried that Clinton will have blown a rare opportunity to destroy Republicans in a single election cycle.

If you seriously thought this was a possibility, you were being quite delusional. There was never a realistic scenario where the dems would get all the power: House Majority, 60 Senate Seats, Presidency

[Virginiá]

If you seriously thought this was a possibility, you were being quite delusional. There was never a realistic scenario where the dems would get all the power: House Majority, 60 Senate Seats, Presidency

Huh? I never said any of that. You just defined 'destroyed' the way you wanted then called me delusional based on your own incorrect assumption. Good job?

By 'destroy' I meant a large win in the presidential popular vote that would reverberate downticket and help us take back competitive state legislature chambers that we've lost, which is entirely possible even without a landslide. For the Senate, my perfect (and realistic), best-win scenario for Democrats is probably a max of +8 seats, which is still very unlikely right now. For the House, a majority is a huge long shot and we'll be lucky to pick up 20+ seats based on current polling.

So no, 'destroy' meant almost none of what you said.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Adam, you're a knowledgable, sensible guy.

Now, reassure me on ME-2.

[Xing]

If the polls are still like this after the debate, then I'll legitimately start to get nervous.

Now, reassure me on ME-2.

It's highly unlikely that ME-02 will make much of a difference, in the end. You can dream up 270-268 or 269-269 maps, but those maps are highly implausible, so Trump winning ME-02 would amount to little more than bragging rights and TNV jizzing his pants. Also, if Trump does win, and does better than Poliquin there, we'll know that either ME-02 has pulled a WV on us, and we'll have a neat strategy guide on how to win ME-02.

Step 1: Register as a Republican, regardless of your actual ideology.

Step 2: Be a complete and total ass to everyone, make some blantantly racist remarks, and show a total lack of self-control.

Step 3: Never apologize to anyone, and continue to insult them if they call you out on anything, no matter how trivial.

Step 4: Victory.

Worked for LeP***, looks like it might work for Trump, so it can work for you!

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, can we panic now? Only 6 weeks left to the election there has been no Great Hillary Bounce and if anything the latest rounds of swing State polls show that the freiwal is close to cracking. Unless she really hits it out of the park during the debate, we'll go in on election night with a serious possibility of President Drumpf.

[nm825]

Of course you should be panicking. This election is coming down to one state- Colorado. Whoever wins Colorado, wins the election.

[ursulahx]

Of course you should be panicking. This election is coming down to one state- Colorado. Whoever wins Colorado, wins the election.

True. Depending on what happens in North Carolina. Oh, and Nevada. Oh, and Maine. Oh, and...etc.

[NOVA Green]

OK, can we panic now? Only 6 weeks left to the election there has been no Great Hillary Bounce and if anything the latest rounds of swing State polls show that the freiwal is close to cracking. Unless she really hits it out of the park during the debate, we'll go in on election night with a serious possibility of President Drumpf.

We can't panic until 538 tells it's time to panic...

But, yeah more seriously this election is much closer than it should be against a candidate like Trump, and I'm not as confident in NV/CO and WI as many of the posters on this forum.

Debates could be a game changer, and unless Clinton can get a Millennial bump this thing will likely go down to the wire...

[RINO Tom]

All Hillary voters should continue to panic until the fascist loses his leads in Florida and Ohio on 538.

Trump is a fascist, Bernie is a socialist, I think using these labels™ gets ya kinda hot, Wulfric.

[DS0816]

Dims blew that when they nominated Clinton over Bernie.

If Bernie were the nominee, he'd get crushed like Mondale did. There's a reason Republicans didn't attack him in the primary: they wanted to run against a crazy old socialist. They would have flooded the airwaves with ads like this and this and this and he'd lose probably the same map that George McGovern did in 1972.

Translation: Even though Millenials are much more left wing than previous generations, and this was well-noted by Frank Lutz, you are wanting to believe that a nominee Bernie Sanders would lose so badly that the likes of California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Washington, Massachusetts, Maryland, Wisconsin, and many states which have not carried Republican since the 1990s would vote for the same candidate as you: Donald Trump.