Can you Democrats please stop panicking?

[Adam Griffin]

Jesus Christ. It's times like these that I wish I could be a Republican; they are far more resolute and don't have spines made of noodle.

1) Y'all on this forum should be bright enough to know how the political geography of this country works. It was never going to be some massive blow-out, regardless of who ran. The percentage of persuadables in this country has went from 20% to 10% to more like 5% over the past 25 years. In national contests, it's a matter of turnout: not persuasion. Look at the ground games. Look at who is far above and beyond equipped to tap into what's necessary to turn out voters. Stop worrying about "enthusiasm". People cried about this crap in 2012. At the end of the day, the GE machine prevails.

2) Look at the polls. Subtract the difference due to convention bounces and the different times of the convention and the trajectory of this race in terms of trends have largely followed 2012 all the way up until the July conventions day-for-day; the only divergence is that August 2016 proceeded to look like September 2012 rather than August 2012 because of the earlier conventions.

Factoring in how far we're removed from the convention bounce and comparing it to this (relative) point in 2012, Obama was only up by one-half-of-a-point in aggregate polling in mid-October. Yes, there is more time potentially for things to go wrong, but there is also plenty of time for things to go in the opposite direction. Stop it.



3) Trump has for the entirety of the campaign had a peak in polling: 44%. With the exception of the short-lived convention bounce, this is where his aggregate performance tops out at before dropping again. This is where he is right now. As we get closer to the election, that peak will likely increase, but we've literally been here several times already over the course of this campaign. Just because Hillary coughed or whatever doesn't mean that you need to abandon all hope.

4) Nobody likes blubbering crybabies and pessimists. Get yourselves together. A few bad polls during the worst of it thus far still shows Clinton with a consistent lead. A few bad days isn't the end of the world.

[Adam Griffin]

All Hillary voters should continue to panic until the fascist loses his leads in Florida and Ohio on 538.

And Iowa

We don't need Florida. We don't need Iowa. We don't need Ohio. You're confusing us with the GOP. Acting as if the campaign is over because of a few bad days of polling in those states is dumb.

[Adam Griffin]

OP is pretty condescending.

Damn straight.

Let the panic spread and spread until she's won outright. That's what I say.

Having the feeling of being behind doesn't motivate voters to turnout. Having the feeling of being ahead, however, actually does motivate more people to turnout, in part because people generally want to vote for a winning candidate. Your overall premise is flawed.

Also, let's dispense with the sh-t about "not needing" even a majority of the battlegrounds. That may be technically true, but for those of us who actually have hopes for what comes beyond November, running up the margin is important.

It's both technically and pragmatically true. "Running up the margin" in a presidential election only matters within the confines of popular vote (skeptical it even matters there), and that definitely isn't going to happen with this electorate. Only poli-sci nerds and Atlas Forum members care about the EC margin. The only "running up the margins" scenario here is one where Clinton sweeps the swing states but wins the PV by a modest amount, like in 2012. Ask the President how those massive mandates worked out for him.

[Adam Griffin]

3) Trump has for the entirety of the campaign had a peak in polling: 44%. With the exception of the short-lived convention bounce, this is where his aggregate performance tops out at before dropping again. This is where he is right now.

#JustSaying

[Adam Griffin]

#JustSaying

[Adam Griffin]

Once again relevant.