Competitive House Predictions: AK-AL to CA-49

[ElectionsGuy]

How it works: As doing threads for every single house race would be tedious and unnecessary, I decided to do a prediction series for all competitive races. How do I determine competitive? I decided to go with three common political prognosticators (Sabato, Rothenberg, Cook) and any race that wasn't labeled safe in any/two/all of the sources I will go over. I'm putting a maximum of 10 races in each thread, letting each thread run for 4-5 days (we'll see how long it takes, I'm not sure of the exact number of races I'm going to cover given the way I'm doing this). I don't expect third parties to win any house races this cycle, so I'm keeping it simple and just putting in the Republican and Democrat. The first candidate listed is always either the incumbent or the person of the party currently holding the seat. I plan on posting a map at the end of the series, and like the presidential ratings and predictions thread, each previous thread will be linked in to each new thread. I signifies incumbency.

Non Safe Seats per Source

Sabato - 48
Rothenberg - 36
Cook - 56

My predictions

AK-AL: Young (R)
AZ-01: O'Halleran (D) - though this one is a complete toss-up imo
AZ-02: McSally (R)
CA-07: Bera (D)
CA-10: Denham (R)
CA-21: Valadao (R)
CA-24: Carbajal (D)
CA-25: Caforio (D)
CA-31: Aguilar (D)
CA-49: Issa (R)

Next batch should cover many in Florida and finish up California and Colorado.

[ElectionsGuy]

Something I didn't address: If a rating of a race changes and the race is no longer non-safe on any of the sources than I will just forget about those ones record wise.

Also it appears I forgot to put the (D) after Brian Caforio.

[Maxwell]

Your predictions match mine to a T - Alaska Dems will fail once again to knock out Young. AZ-02 i think is Lean D considering Babeu is pure scum and will be even more exposed so before November. I've heard rumors that CA-24 could be pretty close and Fareed was definitely the right choice for Republicans, but I can't imagine Republicans winning this in a Presidential year, though I think Fareed would definitely have a shot in 2018. I even agree on Caforio, who isn't the best candidate but I think he's enough to beat Knight in a fairly neutral district that probably isn't too pro-Trump.

[Xing]

I was wondering if we were going to do these threads for congressional races, though I figured that doing one for each district would take way too long, even if we didn't do any of the non-competitive districts. I'm glad we're doing it this way, even if it means less attention can be paid to each individual race.

My projections are the same as yours, though I'd the least sure of CA-25.

[Horus]

The only party switch out of this bunch will be in CA-25.

[Heisenberg]

AZ-01 is lean-likely D. Babeu is terrible, and I hope he loses. Hopefully a good Republican can win it in 2018 or 2020.

[smoltchanov]

Wouldn't it be for 2 O'Halleran losses (1 - as Republican, another - as Indie) i would, probably, pick him (mostly because of Babeu personality), even despite district slightly leaning Republican. As it is - toss-up with slightly better chances for Babeu. Most other (except CA-25) are rather obvious..

[Figueira]

What about CA-20? #Luciusmentum

I went with the consensus picks, and I went with Knight in CA-25 but I haven't been following that one.

God, I hate Babeu.

[smoltchanov]

What about CA-20? #Luciusmentum

In fact - Lucius is quite reasonable candidate. But district is so overwhelmingly Democratic that even God with (R) after his name would lose it handily...

[Figueira]

What about CA-20? #Luciusmentum

In fact - Lucius is quite reasonable candidate. But district is so overwhelmingly Democratic that even God with (R) after his name would lose it handily...

Unless God and another Republican managed to take the top two spots in the jungle primary.

[smoltchanov]

What about CA-20? #Luciusmentum

In fact - Lucius is quite reasonable candidate. But district is so overwhelmingly Democratic that even God with (R) after his name would lose it handily...

Unless God and another Republican managed to take the top two spots in the jungle primary.

Exactly. Say, with 10 Democrats simultaneously running for this seat.....

[Young Conservative]

Lol at people who think McSally will lose when she's raised 6 Million dollars compared to her opponents 900k. McSally is a rising star; the GOP won't let her lose.

[Maxwell]

Lol at people who think McSally will lose when she's raised 6 Million dollars compared to her opponents 900k. McSally is a rising star; the GOP won't let her lose.

you're talking about a very small amount of people. McSally, unfortunately, is likely fine.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Your predictions match mine to a T - Alaska Dems will fail once again to knock out Young. AZ-02 i think is Lean D considering Babeu is pure scum and will be even more exposed so before November. I've heard rumors that CA-24 could be pretty close and Fareed was definitely the right choice for Republicans, but I can't imagine Republicans winning this in a Presidential year, though I think Fareed would definitely have a shot in 2018. I even agree on Caforio, who isn't the best candidate but I think he's enough to beat Knight in a fairly neutral district that probably isn't too pro-Trump.

This, although I don't think Freed has a shot in 2018 (nor will it be close this year) mainly because Carbajal is an extremely strong candidate and should get entrenched pretty quickly.  Caforio should pick up this district, but he'll face a tough race in 2018 (especially since he may not face as weak an opponent as Knight, who has run a pretty lazy campaign and has a tendency to insert both feet directly into his mouth).  Babeu's awfulness should be enough to keep AZ-1 in Democratic hands.

Edit: I also think the Democrats are gonna pick up Darrell Issa's seat.

[Vosem]

Incumbent party holds all but CA-25. McSally belongs to that weird Rubio/Portman class of people who really should be losing considering their location and the environment, but somehow aren't. She'll be a good choice to replace McCain in 2022.

[ElectionsGuy]

Here's the full list of races that will be covered, 57 total as of now. Changing to 5 days instead of 4 and 6-7 races per thread instead of 10 from now on. Now that I've planned this out, I can post a map in each new thread.

September 18th

AK-AL AZ-01 AZ-02 CA-07 CA-10 CA-21 CA-24 CA-25 CA-31 CA-49

September 23rd

CA-52 CO-03 CO-06 FL-02 FL-07 FL-10 FL-13

September 28th

FL-18 FL-26 FL-27 IL-10 IL-12 IN-09 IA-01

October 3rd

IA-03 KS-03 ME-02 MD-06 MI-01 MI-07 MN-02

October 8th

MN-03 MN-08 MT-AL NE-02 NV-03 NV-04 NH-01

October 13th

NJ-05 NY-01 NY-03 NY-19 NY-21 NY-22 NY-23

October 18th

NY-24 NY-25 PA-06 PA-08 PA-16 TX-23

October 23rd

UT-04 VA-04 VA-05 VA-10 WA-08 WI-08

October 28th

One Week Notice

November 4th Midnight

Lock all threads

November 5th-7th

Results

[ElectionsGuy]

Reference for me

Safe R: 202
Safe D: 176

[Gass3268]

Democrats are going to win every competative race in California.